N. N. Pokrovsky. Who Succeeds M. Sturmer in the Foreign Office at Petrograd. His First Notable Utterance Was Against Germany's Peace Proposals. (Photo from Press Illustrating Co.) The Month's Strategic Developments From January 15 to February 15, 1917 By J. B. W. Gardiner Formerly Lieutenant Eleventh United States Cavalry HE prevalence of extreme Winter THE temperature on all the battle fronts negatived to a great extent all fighting during the last month. Local actions of an unimportant character have been the only indications of activity. The Russian move against the Riga lines, which was just beginning as last month's review was being written, was followed by a heavy countermove on the part of the Germans. Both the Russian and the German efforts, however, proved abortive and soon died out, leaving the situation exactly as it was at the outset. From Riga to the Rumanian front there has been no change in the general situation. On Feb. 15 the Germans officially reported taking two important heights in Rumania, but the fact remains that the forces confronting each other on that front are at present without essential advantage to either side. There was for a time some sharp fighting along the southern Sereth, where the Russians had retreated across the river and had taken up a position in front of the fortified post of Galatz. Evidently the Russians had reached the line which was intended by the High Command to be held, for the Germans were able to make no headway. Checked in the south, they turned their attention to the passage through the mountains at Oituz. This is the most important point on the entire Transylvanian frontier at the present time, as through it alone can the positions along the Trotus River, which positions are a northern extension of the Sereth line, be attacked. The mountains are entirely closed north of the Oituz Pass, and between it and the crossing of the Trotus there is not a single passage. If the way through this pass were cleared, therefore, the Germans would be in an excellent position to carry their lines across the Putna to the Trotus and middle Sereth and force this smaller stream, thus flanking the entire line of defense. Here also, however, the Germans met with a distinct check. The Russians were assisted at what appeared to be a critical time by heavy snows and extreme cold. These, combined with the natural strength of the Russian defenses, finally caused cessation of fighting, so that the long line from Riga to the Danube settled down to do nothing until the weather became more propitious. British Fighting on the Ancre On the western front the British alone have been active. Trench raids have been frequent on all sides, but these are for purposes of reconnoissance and involve little fighting. All the fighting that has been done has been along the Ancre in the Somme district. It has been presumed that the battle of the Somme had ended, the presumption being entirely on the part of the Germans. Arguing from their own experience at Verdun they came to the conclusion that the cessation of the fighting there last November meant an allied defeat and a German victory. The two battles, however, have little in common. Verdun was lost in April. At least by April it was evident that the Germans had been checked and that whatever they had hoped to accomplish had escaped from them. The battle ceased to be fought in July. From July to the end of October is the best fighting weather of the year. Had the Germans not been defeated, had they not seen the futility of carrying the battle further, and, above all, had they not been furnished with an excellent excuse for crying quits by the combined allied attack, the battle could have gone on without hindrance. But they ANCRE REGION, SCENE OF RECENT BRITISH ADVANCES IN FRANCE were defeated, and, seeing the opportunity of stopping the attack because of the worldwide distraction caused by the allied offensive, judged that the chance to withdraw was too good to lose. The situation at the battle of the Somme is in no way to be compared with this situation. In the first place, the Allies had no one objective. There was no strongly fortified point in their front toward which their military aspirations led them. Bapaume was there, also Péronne, but neither of these is of sufficient importance either from a military or a sentimental viewpoint to be considered the final objective of such a titanic effort. And when the fighting ended it was not because the advance of the Allies was checked. On the contrary, the rate of advance with each successive major attack was greater in the final days of the fighting than it was at the beginning. The question was decided for the time being by weather conditions. The whole front had been turned into a sea by heavy rains. The Ancre, instead of being, as in normal times, a stream scarcely larger than a brook, was a wide river, a no man's land between the rival trenches passable only in boats. There was nothing for the Allies to do but suspend oper ations until the ground would permit the During the last month excessive cold It will be remembered that the last effort made on the Somme was a British attack along the Ancre, which resulted in an advance on both sides of the stream and the occupation of Beaucourt and Beaumont Hamel. It was in an extension of this section of the front that the British effort was exerted. Taking first a trench on the south bank of the river, then one on the north bank, the British gradually extended their lines until the town of Grandcourt was almost surrounded. The Germans were placed in a desperate position, and, lest their line of retreat be closed altogether and they be forced back against the stream, they evacuated the town without making a fight to defend it. The British since Grandcourt fell have been conducting the same sort of operation against Serre. There has been no attempt to break the line, no grand effort such as marked the Fall operations 1 in this region. It has been nothing more than a steady but uninterrupted creep forward, trench by trench, until a favorable moment for a more definite attack occurs. The result is that while the changes in position are too small to appear on any but a large-scale map, the German position is getting more and more difficult to retain. The line of advance up the Ancre is the most dangerous that the British could adopt. It draws the noose tighter about the Germans in what still remains of the old salient, and if it continues will throw the British so far in the rear of the German positions south of Hebuterne that a retreat will become necessary. In fact, not a great many more blows will have to be delivered before the Germans are pinched out of the entire salient and the line drawn straight from Arras to Peronne. Germany's Serious Plight The most important development of the month, however, has been the action of Germany in what in reality amounts to a declaration of war against all neutrals in issuing her submarine notification. What can be the necessity that forced Germany to this step? In the first place, German efficiency as exemplified in this war has been misunderstood and in a way misnamed. It was not so much efficiency as preparedness, made with an understanding more acute perhaps than that of the Entente Powers of what the war would mean. But the degree of preparedness which the Germans had reached has now been exceeded by the Allies. In trained and well drilled men they are greatly superior. In guns and shell production they also have the decided advantage. England today is manufacturing more shells than she and her allies can use. The importance of shells may be readily seen when the various steps in a battle are understood. The first step is the heavy gunfire with high explosive shells. The function of this is to destroy the wire entanglements and demolish the trenches. It does not, however, as a general thing reach the dugouts where the German machine guns are located. As soon as the heavy guns have done their work, the barrage fire is started, usually with shrapnel, the object being the old trenches and the purpose to keep the German gunners in their dugouts until the infantry is upon them. This barrage, or curtain of fire, is kept up until the infantry is not more than twenty-five or fifty yards from the trench, when it is lifted and the infantry go down into the dugouts, hoping to cover the distance before the machine guns can come into play. While this is going on, the air scouts are busy trying to locate the enemy's artillery. If this cannot be done the chances of winning are much reduced. But, given superiority in shell and ascendency in the air, the end is inescapable. Not only are the Allies superior in shell, but they also control the air. There are actually more men in the British Royal Flying Corps today than there were men in the regular British Army when the war broke out. With these advantages the Germans will have a hard time this Spring in keeping the Allies from shattering their lines and driving them out of France. But this is only a part. The German people are running very short of other things. Whether it is of food or not, no one knows. It would seem that, in spite of the blockade, it is impossible to force Germany into defeat by hunger. But to starve it in other things besides food is entirely another thing. War demands certain raw materials which Germany does not possess within her own confines nor those of her allies. These can be obtained only through importation, and Germany cannot import. The amount she can get from Holland, Denmark, and Sweden is negligible. Among these supplies that are lacking are cotton for use in the manufacture of high explosives; copper for use in shell manufacture, wool for clothing her soldiers; rubber and fats. All these things Germany must bring into the country, and if her supply is nearing exhaustion, her plight is desperate. But desperation does not pardon her form of lawlessness. A BRITISH REVIEW Major Gen. F. B. Maurice of the British War Office stated on Feb. 15 that since the beginning of the new year the trench raids which the British forces have been carrying on have netted a gain in ground to an average depth of threequarters of a mile over a front of 10,000 yards and the capture of 2,000 Germans, and also have greatly encouraged the British troops. On the debit side of the ledger, General Maurice said, the total losses of the British have not been as great as the number of German prisoners. He added the following: "We are now capturing Germans of all ages, including both ends of the age limits, from 17 to 60 now being forced into the German Army. While it would not be safe to say that deterioration of the German Army has become general, it can be said that the prisoners show marked evidence of such decline, and the fact that they have abandoned villages without attempting to defend them confirms this impression." Progress of the War Recording Campaigns on All Fronts and Collateral Events From January 12, Up to and Including February 18, 1917 On Jan. 31-The United States Government received from Germany a note and memorandum in which she replied to President Wilson's address before the United States Senate on peace, denounced the Allies for their rejection of her peace overtures and for alleged violations of international law and announced that beginning Feb. 1 German submarines would sink without warning any merchant vessel entering a prescribed zone around the coasts of the allied countries, thus repudiating the pledges she had made in her note of May 4, 1916, in reply to a note from the United States on the Sussex case. Under certain conditions one American vessel was to be allowed to pass through the safety zone to and from Falmouth each week. Two days later the German Ambassador was authorized to extend this offer to include any American ship. On Feb. 3-The United States severed diplomatic relations with Germany. Count von Bernstorff received his passports, Ambassador Gerard was recalled and President Wilson laid the situation before Congress and notified neutrals of the break, expressing the hope that they would find it possible to take similar action. American interests in Germany were put into the hands of the Spanish Minister and German interests in the United States were put into the hands of the Swiss Minister. Steps were taken immediately to protect the country against spies and conspirators, defense measures were rushed in Congress, railroads were prepared for emergencies and plans were made for the mobilization of the country's industries. On the same day, the Housatonic, an American ship, was sunk by a German submarine off the Scilly Islands. She received full warning, however, and her entire crew was saved. The American Government demanded the immediate release of the 72 American citizens held as prisoners of war in Germany after being brought to a German port on the Yarrowdale as captives from the crews of merchant ships sunk by a German raider. The German Government announced on Feb. 4 that these men would be released, but as she did not act on her promise Secretary Lansing, acting through the Swiss Minister, made a second demand that they be freed. On Feb. 15 a message from Berlin stated they had been released. On Feb. 5-The British S. S. Eavestone was sunk without warning and an American negro seaman was killed as the boats which left the sinking vessel were shelled. Official information was received from the American Minister at Copenhagen that Ambassador Gerard and all Americans, including consular officials, were being detained in Germany pending assurance of fair treatment of Ambassador Bernstorff and the crews of interned German ships. The German Foreign Office asked Ambassador Gerard to reaffirm the treaties of 1799 and 1828, but he refused to act and referred the German officials to Spanish It is believed and Swiss intermediaries. that Germany was influenced by alarmist dispatches concerning the treatment of |