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favor until the end of the war. Brusiloff added that, in his personal view, even from the beginning of the war, the adversaries of Russia had never had the smallest possibility of winning a decisive victory, but that, while these adversaries continued to report a succession of victories in the field, it would be difficult to persuade them that they were certain to be defeated. The situation in Rumania, though grave, was not such as to cause real alarm, and had, so far, no strategic importance, from the point of view of the general plan of the Allies.

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The Czar first met Rasputin in 1905 through the Countess Ignatieff, wife of a former Governor of Siberia and much interested in the cult of the Chlysty," a sect of flagellants, which Rasputin was trying to revive. In the Countess's circle, where the Czar was then an occasional visitor, were the Montenegrin Princess Militza, wife of the Grand Duke Peter Nikolaievitch; Prince Putjatin, Court Marshal; Count Benckendorff, Prince Orloff, and, finally, General Soukhomlinoff. The latter was the Russian War Minister during the fatal campaign in East Prussia, when traitors were believed to have betrayed the Russian armies in the field and left them without reserves of munitions at home. In June, 1915, Soukhomlinoff resigned and was later arrested and lodged in the Fortress of Peter and Paul. Rasputin was suspected of participation in the betrayal of military plans to the Ger

mans.

It has been said that when the war began the genuine Muscovites gradually dropped away from the circle, leaving only Baltic Russians with German ideas

behind, and that the circle then became the centre of German propaganda, to which Brusiloff referred in April, 1916, when he took command of the southern Russian armies and said to the war correspondents:

"Not a line can you write from herenot a message will go forth till something happens. In Petrograd they have a switchboard with connections with Ber

lin."

RE

** * *

AUSTRO-HUNGARIAN WAR LOANS ETURNS from the fifth Austrian war loan show 4,412,800,000 crowns (nominally $895,798,000) subscribed with approximately 300,000,000 additional already subscribed but still outstanding. The loan is thus the largest yet raised in Austria. The first levy was 2,217,000,000 crowns, the second 2,688,320,000, the third 4,202,600,000, the fourth 4,520,300,000. The new loan makes the total raised for war by Austria about 18,400,000,000 crowns. Subscriptions to the Hungarian fifth war loan reached 2,300,000,000 crowns, ($460,000,000 normal exchange,) as compared with 1,175,000,000 for the first, 1,132,000,000 for the second, 1,970,000,000 for the third, and 2,000,000,000 for the fourth.

* * *

SERGEANT JULIEN AT DOUAUMONT

ON

N the evening of the great attack, by which General Nivelle and General Mangin won back the famous fort of Douaumont, Sergeant Julien of the Thirteenth Company, sent out for supplies, losing his way in the dark, was captured by a wandering band of German soldiers, who bound him and took him to a German dugout, which was now, though unknown to its occupants, well within the new French lines. The Germans asked him who he was, how he had come there, and, when, bewildered, he hesitated in his answers, reminded him that they were not inclined to stand on ceremony with a prisoner. Prisoner?" replied Sergeant Julien; "that remains to be seen! First of all, where are we? At the La Dame ravine? Well, then, listen to this! Thiaumont is in our hands! Douaumont has been ours since this afternoon. You are the only people

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No story could better illustrate the extraordinary suddeness with which General Nivelle's offensive was carried out than this almost fantastic tale, which is, nevertheless, well attested.

IT

** * *

THE ISLES OF GREECE

T has just been announced that England and France have taken possession of the Island of Cerigo, at the southeastern extremity of the Morea, the southern peninsula of Greece, which is, strictly speaking, no longer a peninsula but an island, since the cutting of the canal across the Isthmus of Corinth. The occupation is justified by the fact that there have been submarine bases in this and other islands. It further complicates the situation of the Grecian Isles.

Corfu, one of the Ionian Islands ceded to Greece by England when Prince George of Denmark was made King of Greece, has been for some time in the hands of France, which there fitted out the rejuvenated Serbian Army. Crete has recently declared itself independent of Greece, after seeking union through many turbulent years. Imbros and Tenedos, which the Greek fleet captured in the Balkan war of 1912, were returned, under the treaties of London and Athens, to Turkey, and are now used as bases by the Allies.

The famous islands along the AsianIonian coast-Mitylene, Chios, Samos, and Rhodes have not been greatly affected by the war; they are still under Turkish sovereignty. But they belong to European, not to Asian, history, and here, perhaps, Italy reaps her reward for more extensive action in the Balkans. Cerigo, by the way, is the ancient Cythera, from which Aphrodite took the

from Europe, and the reference to the Amenian massacres as a justification of this determination, draw attention to the report just issued under the editorship of Viscount Bryce, copious extracts from which appeared in CURRENT HISTORY MAGAZINE for last November. In his younger days Mr. Bryce was an enthusiastic Alpine climber; as such he visited the Caucasus and was one of the first, if not the first, to climb to the top of Mount Ararat and other summits in the Armenian region. He therefore knows the country well. Lord Bryce thus sums the matter up: "The grav

est facts are those for which the evidence is most complete, and it all tallies fatally with that which twenty years ago established the guilt of Abdul Hamid for the deeds that have made his name infamous. In this case there are, moreover, what was wanting then, admissions which add weight to the testimony here presented-I mean the admissions of the Turkish Government and their German apologists. The attempt made to find excuses for wholesale slaughter and for the removal of a whole people from its homes leave no doubt as to the slaughter and the removal. The main facts are established by the confession of the criminals themselves."

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P

Summary of the Movement and Text of
Replies From Belligerents and Neutrals

RESIDENT WILSON'S effort to
bring about peace by requesting
from the belligerents an avowal

of precise terms upon which the war might be concluded was first made known to the world on Dec. 20, 1916, through the publication of an identic note which he had sent through Secretary Lansing on Dec. 18 to all the belligerent and neutral powers. The text of this note was printed in the January issue of CURRENT HISTORY MAGAZINE. The publication of the note created a violent break in the New York stock market, which later became a semi-panic in consequence of an announcement by Secretary Lansing, who, in explaining the note, affirmed that this country was on the verge of war."

Secretary Lansing's Statements

His first statement was as follows:

It isn't our material interest we had in mind when the note was sent, but more and more our own rights are becoming involved by the belligerents on both sides, so that the situation is becoming increasingly critical.

I mean by that that we are drawing nearer the verge of war ourselves, and therefore we are entitled to know exactly what each belligerent seeks, in order that we may regulate our conduct in the future.

No nation has been sounded. No consideration of the German overtures or of the speech of Lloyd George was taken into account in the formulation of the document. The only thing the overtures did was to delay it a few days. It was not decided to send it until Monday. Of course, the difficulty that faced the President was that it might be construed as a movement toward peace and in aid of the German overtures. cifically denies that that was the fact in the document itself.

He spe

The sending of this note will indicate the possibility of our being forced into the war. That possibility ought to serve as a restraining and sobering force, safeguarding American rights. It may also serve to force an earlier conclusion of the war. Neither the President nor myself regards this note as a peace note; it is merely an effort to get the belligerents to define the end for which they are fighting.

The effect of this statement was so ex

tremely disquieting that Secretary Lansing later in the day (Dec. 20) issued a second statement as follows:

I have learned from several quarters that a wrong impression was made by the statement which I made this morning, and I wish to correct that impression.

My intention was to suggest the very direct and necessary interest which this country, as one of the neutral nations, has in the possible terms which the belligerents may have in mind, and I did not intend to intimate that the Government was considering any change in its policy of neutrality, which it has consistently pursued in the face of constantly increasing difficulties.

were.

I regret that my words were open to any other construction, as I now realize that they I think that the whole tone and language of the note to the belligerents show the purpose without further comment on my part. It is needless to say that I am unreservedly in support of that purpose and hope to see it accepted.

While the second announcement was more reassuring, nevertheless the firm request of the President and the apparently contradictory explanations of the Secretary of State produced profound uneasiness throughout the country and caused panicky declines in stocks and sensational fluctuations in grain and commodity markets. Stocks in general declined from 10 to 20 points-some munition stocks fell 100 points. Wheat jumped 10 to 20 cents, and declined with equal suddenness, while cotton oscillated with almost unprecedented violence.

Reception of the Note

The action of the President was received with distinct approval throughout the Central Empires, and was construed as supporting their peace proposals, although the President had distinctly disavowed any connection between the two. Among the Entente nations, on the other hand, President Wilson's action and Secretary Lansing's explanations left an unfavorable impression and were bitterly resented by many influential statesmen, publicists, and newspapers in France, England, Italy, and Canada. In neutral

countries the American note was officially approved, except by Spain, and the general attitude of the neutral public seemed amiably complaisant toward the movement. In the United States the comment was mixed - extreme pro-ally sympathizers were emphatic in denouncing the entire procedure as inopportune and ill-advised, and Secretary Lansing came in for extremely acrid criticism for his explanations. Pacifists, pro-Germans, and partisans of the President applauded his course and prophesied that it would bring about peace. Three weeks later, when the Allies' reply had been received, opinions everywhere had changed, and President Wilson was strongly commended throughout the world for having pursued a judicious and statesmanlike

course.

Indorsed by the Senate

The following resolution was introduced Dec. 20, 1916, in the United States Senate by Senator Hitchcock, (Democrat, of Nebraska :)

Resolved, That the Senate approves and strongly indorses the action taken by the President in sending the diplomatic notes of Dec. 18 to the nations now engaged in war, suggesting and recommending that those nations state the terms upon which peace might be discussed.

The resolution was the cause of a notable debate, in which Senators Borah and Lodge took the position that the passage of the resolution in the form offered would commit the United States to a program supporting an international League to Enforce Peace-after the war-and would mean the abandonment of the Monroe Doctrine and the precipitation of the United States into the political complications and alliances of Europe.

The opposition to the resolution was so ably presented that its supporters were in the end convinced, and finally accepted the following modification, which was adopted:

Resolved, That the Senate approves and strongly indorses the request of the President in the diplomatic notes of Dec. 18 to the nations now engaged in war that those nations state the terms upon which peace might be discussed.

Seventeen votes were recorded against the resolution as finally amended, and 47 in the affirmative.

Senator Borah's Parallel

Senator Borah of Idaho, in his speech opposing the original resolution, used the following illustration, which is characteristic of his argument:

It means not only the abandonment of the doctrine of neutrality established by Washington, but it means the abandonment of the Monroe Doctrine announced by Monroe upon the mature advice of Jefferson. Take some of the illustrations which show the dangerous course upon which we are about to enter if we indorse such a policy, and I am going to use the names of some of the nations, although in doing so of course I am not to be considered as using them because I either fear them or would offend them, but simply as an illustration.

We will assume now that the partnership of which the President spoke has been formed, that the co-operation has been completed and the combined alliance has been made, and in that combination and alliance are Japan and Russia and the United States, and we will assume that after the combination is made Russia and Japan have a dispute as to rights in Manchuria. Japan insists that it should be submitted to the arbitral tribunal. Russia insists that it involves her vital interests, refuses to submit it, and moves her troops immediately to the contested territory. Under the league alliance which we have formed and the treaties which we have made we must join with Japan in enforcing or punishing Russia for refusing to submit her proposition to the tribunal.

Let us take another illustration. We will assume that Mexico has been restored to law and order as a Government, and that Mexico is a member of the alliance, and that Japan is a member of the alliance, and that Mexico conceived the idea of leasing Magdalena Bay to Japan for ninety-nine years, and we protest against it. We have already joined the alliance. They are members of it. Mexico says, Certainly I have a right to dispose of my territory," and Japan says, "I have a right to purchase," and they are all members of a common league bound together for a common purpose. Would the United States submit that question to a tribunal where it has but one vote or one voice and permit its entire future to be disposed of by a court where it has but a single representative?

The "Leak" Episode

Another episode growing out of the note was a declaration in the House of Representatives that the intention to send the note had "leaked out" from official sources several days in advance to certain Stock Exchange firms, and that various Government officials in high station had profited enormously on the stock market by the "inside tip." Congress or

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dered an investigation by the Committee of Rules, and a number of prominent stock operators and public officials were called as witnesses. A letter to a ConCurtis," whose gressman, signed by one identity has not been established, named among others the President's Secretary, Mr. Tumulty, and R. W. Bolling, a brother of the President's first wife, as beneficiaries from the sale of stocks by the advance information. Secretary Tumulty, Mr. Bolling, and others testified before the committee and were fully exonerated, the proving clearly the falsity of charges, while Secretary Lansing and others testified as to the secrecy maintained in official circles respecting the notes. Certain Stock Exchange operators were also summoned, but in the judgment of the committee nothing was developed to justify the charges, though one operator, Thomas W. Lawson of Boston, was so offensive to the committee that he was cited for contempt. made charges reflecting on Cabinet officers and other high officials, yet refused to give their names or to name his informants unless Congress broadened the scope of the investigating committee and clothed it with inquisitorial powers. This was done by formal resolution on Jan. 13, and on Jan. 15 Mr. Lawson reappeared before the committee and was subjected to a searching cross-examination. He stated that he had been informed by Congressman Henry, Chairman of the Rules Committee, that the "the leak beneficirumors regarding aries" involved Mr. McAdoo, Secretary of the Treasury; Mr. Tumulty, Private Secretary to the President, and various prominent New York bankers. Mr. Lawson stated that he had no personal information regarding the matter. giving of names created considerable excitement and brought forth indignant denials from Secretary McAdoo and Mr. Tumulty, with protests against being thus assailed by irresponsible scandalgossip. Chairman Henry also denied the statements affecting him.

His

In consequence of these charges Congress passed a resolution further broadening the scope of the inquiry committee and authorizing it to employ counsel, the

evident intention being to ascertain by a thorough inquiry whether or not certain New York financiers and Stock Exchange houses had at any time obtained advance information of proposed official documents or utterances which might affect stock values. This inquiry is proceeding as these pages go to press.

Replies of the Nations

The responses of the belligerents to the President's request showed a wide disThe similarity of tone and contents. Central Powers replied on Dec. 26, within a week after the note was received by them. While not declining the President's request, they did not avow their terms, but suggested that these would be forthcoming at an "immediate exchange of views" by the belligerents. [The text of this reply appears on Page 783.]

The reply of the Entente Allies was handed to Ambassador Sharp at Paris on Jan. 11, 1917, by Premier Briand, and was made public on Jan. 12. It was elaborate and specific, giving terms in definite language. Belgium presented a separate note. [The text of these replies, including the original French text of the Entente note, appears on Pages 783-8.]

The same day Premier Lloyd George made an important address at London re.garding the new loan. It bore directly on the reply and confirmed more elaborately the Entente's general terms. Likewise on the same day Paul Déschanel, addressing the Chamber of Deputies after his re-election to the Presidency of that body, stated that the first articles of France's peace program were the restitution of Belgium and the restoration of Alsace-Lorraine to France. [These utterances appears on Pages 793-6.]

Germany on Jan. 11 issued another address to the neutral world to appear contemporaneously with the answer of the Allies; it explains in detail why Germany took up arms, and formulates her ideals. [Page 789.]

The reply of the Entente Allies was supplemented by a statement issued Jan. 13 by Arthur J. Balfour, British Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, in the nature of an amplification of the joint reply. This was made public Jan. 18, 1917. It appears on Page 786.

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