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of readers of yesterday's newspapers. It is difficult to imagine a In the Middle West the Chicago “ Herald " stands prominent. quicker or greater response than he has received from every It says: direction.
After noon to-morrow Uncle Sam will be at the throttle ... The newspapers of the South and West echo this. The
This relief will probably be appreciated by no one more than the Louisville “ Courier-Journal," one of the best known of all the
railroad managers themselves . . . If Government control is the Southern papers, says :
only way of bringing the Government to afford that relief which The elimination of competition, the co-ordination of transpor the roads have long been clamoring for, it will have certain adtation systems, and the subordination of all other purposes to vantages over the semi-Governmental control which regulates that of making the resources of the United States mobile for the the income drastically but permits the outflow to flow unchecked. prosecution of the war should make the transfer of the railroads to
In conclusion, the opinion of the “Kansas City Star,” whose government control of decided constructive value.
opinions are Nationally respected, forms a suitable summary of The experiment cannot succeed without serving as an object
the whole matter : “ It is testimony to the immense changes lesson in government ownership ... a bridge which a majority
worked in the National spirit that such a revolutionary moveof Americans will be willing to cross when they reach it. At present the prosecution of war occupies every American's
ment is carried out with little opposition in any quarter. The mind. ... All else must be made subordinate to it and where
American people are solidly behind any measure necessary to possible contributory to it.
help win the war.”
SOME REFLECTIONS UPON A MEETING OF POLITICAL
SCIENTISTS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENCE BY FREDERICK M. DAVENPORT As some of our readers who have read in The Outlook Mr. Davenport's lively observations on public questions, and who know of his acquaintance with the practical workings of government through his experiences in political office, may need to be minded, the writer of the following special correspondence is Professor of Law and Civil Polity at Hamilton College.—THE EDITORS. M VHE City of Brotherly Love during the holidays was full matter for a political scientist. They have no broad, corporate
of college professors-historians and classicists, sociolo political philosophy, and no way of putting it across if they had
gists and economists—and political scientists of the uni- the philosophy. It was easy for Treitschke. The organization versity persuasion. And, naturally, the most war-shocked and of the German state was eager and ready for his ideas. But it war-bewildered of all were the political scientists. What about is a far harder task to inspire and lead into action the inchoate the future of responsible democracy? Is there to be any future? and chaotic American democracy. Not unless democracy can be made to work far better than it What is to be done about it? How shall the political scihas worked hitherto. Beard, sometimeprotesting Professor of : entist become more competent, and by what methods shall be Politics at Columbia, offered a scathing indictment of the legal put it across? In the first place, no man ought to be allowed istic political philosophies of recent generations, and openly con-' to teach political science who doesn't spend part of his time in fėssed for himself and his comrades that there had been neither the world outside of his college class-room in the laboratory of adequate vision nor political health in any of them. Dodd, of practical political activity. You cannot inclose a laboratory of the University of Chicago, defined a reformer as a well-mean- political science within the four walls of a building on the caming person, usually a college professor, who believes that things pus. Every political scientist should have his roots deliberately ought to be different and who has a panacea to make them dif and practically in the world outside, and boards of trustees and ferent, which fails because he has no conception of how things faculties should come to see the very great need of it in this actually are done in the politics of the country or what the particular department of knowledge. Dry-as-dust disquisitions underlying forces are with which he has to deal.
about days that are done or about Utopias that never dawned Actual government is more and more looking to political are no help whatever to the American democracy. science for ideas of reorganization. There is no doubt about And the whole system of public school and college education that. A good representation of the political intellectuals of the needs to be revolutionized on the side of preparation for citi United States were gathered at Philadelphia ; but they recog zenship. The place to put practical political ideals in a demoenized that the country had asked of them bread and that they racy is in the plastic and impressionable minds of boys and had given it a stone. They hadn't put it across. Treitschke put girls who to-morrow are to have the voting power and the it across. For a generation he fed the sources of power in the control absolute of the country's future-a great new pro German state with the political nutriment craved by the law gramme of concrete citizenship worked into the school curricuof its sovereign being. As an inspirer of autocracy to do its lum at an early period and required of every boy and girl to ablest and its worst he is without a peer.
the end of the educational career ; no paltry civics nor skeleton When will the political intellectuals of America begin to studies in government, but concrete community experiences inspire democracy to do its noblest and its best ? Certainly not directly participated in under the school roof or near by-voting. until they get in touch with the human nature of American naturalization, parliaments, courts, the manifold community democracy and begin to understand the great sub-conscious activities that function in a city or county or State. Nothing forces of its being. Political science in the United States knows can stop the universal suffrage of both men and women in a what Aristotle thought and Machiavelli and the Federalists. democracy; nothing must stop their preparation for it when It can describe governments that have existed and it begins to the age of duty comes. have a vision of certain concrete particulars in which govern. The great need of the leaders of democracy is a better knowlment and society in the future must be different from govern edge and a better appreciation of human nature in polities, ment and society in the past. But it has in places of power no Now everybody votes and everybody reads and democracy baš Bismarcks, no Treitschkes, no Hamiltons, and no Madisons, and broken loose from its swaddling-clothes. It is impossible to
o powerful intellects of action who see the whole thing in the control democracy from above by checks and balances and large and are able to put it across.
weights and hobbles, as the revered Federalists did in the early The great body of political intellectuals in America are doing days of the Nation, Democracy resents such inhibitions, and very little to make democracy responsible and efficient and ought to resent them. It is too late even benevolently to coeren powerful, because they are not in touch with the motives and democracy in this country, in any event. Real leaders with ideas sources of action. They are not in touch with the great car- and deep and genuine sympathy with the masses of the people rents of human nature, with men and things as they are. They are henceforth to be the most reliable checks upon the mob are groping around just now for an economic interpretation of spirit in America and throughout the world. politics, which is all right as far as it goes. But very few of But how are you going to sympathize with democracy and them are practical political psychologists, which is an important lead it straight, no matter how much of a political intellectual you are, unless you sit down with democracy humbly and learn Through sympathy and the humble spirit of getting acquainted its inner nature ayd the great and more or less sub-conscious with things as they are, perhaps by and by the whole American forces which determine its action? The intellectuals and natural public cant about men who interest themselves practically in leaders are under bonds to live with democracy, to sit down politics will cease. The right leaders will come, though, will be patiently in all the political club-houses, trade-union gatherings, recognized, and will be influential. As the result of many a sad and farmers' associations, and learn what democracy is thinking experience there is now a public tone of opprobrium against about and how democracy feels about it.
men who persistently seek to become influential in public affairs. Why, in New York City, does Al Smith last longer than They are “self-seekers ” or “office-seekers," at best to be tolerJohn Purroy Mitchel? Why does Tammany outlast all its ated and suspected, defeated soon, and changed often in order Fusion foes and grow slowly better in the process? From the to insure political security and the public welfare. Their salaries stand point of democracy, it is a matter of the survival of the are usually fixed at amounts which Mr. Murphy, of New York, fittest. Al Smith knows the human nature of every man, woman, once rightly affirmed to be only “chicken feed.” The only and child on Manhattan Island. That has always been the alternative has seemed to be to depend, as England has done, strength of Tammany. The cold corporate method, no matter upon the leadership of a benevolent aristocracy of wealth and how efficient, applied to politics without recourse to human position. But the American democracy does not take kindly to nature or appreciation of it, is doomed to failure. The last Fu- this alternative. Neither will any democracy in the long run. sion campaign in New York City will long remain a classical There is a better way, and perhaps the American democracy illustration of the futility of selling good government from above will follow it when its sympathethic intellectuals make themselves to a democracy. It cannot be done, not even with the most enor- well enough acquainted with the common mind, so that the commous overhead charges. The last attempt at a new and farmon mind begins to trust them. Great numbers of young men better Constitution for the State of New York failed precisely in the colleges of America ought to be under instruction to look at this point. A group of thoroughly able and sincere men forward to practical politics as a means of livelihood as well as planned, more or less in camera, after the manner of Federalists, of service. The most practical politics is enlightened self-inter. a better instrument of government than New York had ever est, modified by the spirit of service and of sympathy with the known. I do not know that the inspectors of election are through ideals of the mass of mankind. Not all of this was said at the yet with counting the overwhelming majority in opposition. meeting of political scientists in the City of Brotherly Love, Those modern Federalists forgot that you must let modern - but the substance of what is here written lay back of all that democracy know at every point what you are doing, patiently, - was said. determinedly, sympathetically, or you cannot put it across. . Philadelphia, December 29, 1917.
SENATOR NEWLANDS: AN APPRECIATION
BY FRANKLIN K. LANE
SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR
T SHOULD like to lay a “sprig of Western pine” upon the
bier of Francis G. Newlands. He was a noble man. ThroughI out a long life of active political struggle he never made an enemy whom he would not have chosen as an enemy, and he drew to himself all men of fine aspiration. Some of those with whom he worked thought him a dreamer—and he was. He had that obsession, so unbelieved in by the practical politician, that the world was eventually ruled by thought; that the man who kept his head clear and open to the incoming of the highest impulses would find himself gradually surrounded by those who come up slowly to the same high plane. It was this great optimism which was the foundation rock of his nature. He believed that the innate secret of democracy was its sureness in the end to do the right thing. He was a dreamer, and he saw some of his dreams come true. It took twenty years of agitation to gain the consent of Congress to look at the problem of our rivers and deserts and forests as one National problem. It is fifteen years and more since his effort resulted in the Reclamation Act; and only at the last session was he able to tie the problem of irrigation to the problem of flood control and water transportation.'
It was on Mr. Newlands's resolution that the Hawaiian Islands came into the Union. Ile labored tirelessly on behalf of the railway men to secure protection for their lives upon freight trains through the passage of the Safety Appliance Acts. He believed in the Constitution as a living instrument quite equal to the responsibilities and duties of a growing Nation. Indeed, a review of his political career will show him to have been a forwardlooking man from his earliest day in Congress. He saw clearly, and before others saw or dared to speak, the things which threatened and which must be met; and, splendidly lacking in what one of his colleagues called "a sense of opportuneness," he battled in season and out for measures which promoted the making of an American nation that was more serviceable to the world in its physical strength and in its physical beauty. He FRANCIS GRIFFITH NEWLANDS, BORN AUGUST 28, 1848; DIED DECEMBER 24, 1917 challenged the finest qualities in men; never their smallnesses, The Vice-President, with his exceptional power of discriminatheir petty personal likes and dislikes, and, as a result, drew tion, said a true thing: “I admire some men and love a few. from all those whom he knew their noblest qualities, revealed Newlands I both admired and loved.” A gentleman and a their finer selves ; and only in his death all realize how much statesman has passed. they respected him and how real their affection for him was. Washington, D. C., 'December 20, 1917.
JAPAN'S WAR PROBLEMS: HER NEW RELATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES, EUROPE, AND CHINA
THE growing friendly relations of Japan and the United of trade between the two countries has been in favor of Japan,
States are signalized by the visit to this country of two as the phrase goes. That is to say, Japan has exported more to
important Japanese commissions. The first, of which this country than she has imported from us. The balance has Visount Ishii is the head, was a diplomatic mission. Its function been paid by us in specie by exchange on London. But Japan and its reception in this country have already been noted in these would much prefer to take this balance in commodities rather pages. It was signalized by the Ishii-Lansing agreement con- than in money. Steel, forexample, is very necessary to Japan as cerning the rights of Japan and the United States in the Far East. a manufacturing country, and she would like to import more
One of the questions which the Ishii Mission dealt with was steel from the United States; and Japan needs the steel to the part that Japan had in the war. It is this subject that the finish the ships which she is building, and which we and our first of the two following articles discusses.
allies need. An increase of exportations from this country to The second commission is known as the Finance Commission. Japan of raw materials and manufactured goods would be, of While it is officially appointed, authorized, and sent by the course, an advantage to American commerce. Imperial Government of Japan, it is not at all political. Its Baron Megata, who is the head of the Finance Commission, function is rather social, industrial,sand economic. Viscount Ishii's was born in 1853, the year when Commodore Perry first opened mission may be likened to an official call of the Government of the gates of intercourse between Japan and the United States. Japan upon the Government of the United States. Baron The Baron was the first Japanese to graduate from an AmeriMegata's mission may be likened to a call of the Japanese peo can university, having received his degree of Bachelor of Arts ple upon the people of the United States.
from Harvard in 1874. He has had a long public career in In the second of the two following articles Baron Ito, of the Japan, beginning in the educational department and later seryFinance Commission, tells our readers something about the com ing as a justice in the law courts. But his chief and longest mercial relations of Japan and America. The Imperial Finance work as a publicist and officer of the Government has been in Commission, of which he is a member, and which arrived in San the Department of Finance. The Commission consists of eight Francisco about November 1 last, is making a study of the members besides himself, Four of these members are Governindustrial and economic development of the United States by ment officers, and four of them represent important and influvisiting and observing the work of American manufacturers, ential financial or industrial houses. They deserve a cordial industrialists, and merchandisers. For many years the balance welcome in this country.—THE EDITORS.
I-WHY JAPAN HAS NOT SENT AN EXPEDITIONARY FORCE TO
BY T. IYENAGA Dr. Iyenaga is Director of the “ East and West News Bureau," an organization of Japanese citizens for promoting a better understanding between America and Japan. He is also associated with the University of Chicago as a professorial lecturer.—THE EDITORS. TAPAN'S position in the world war is unique. She entered and a corresponding heavy expenditure. Furthermore, Japan
the war in obedience to the terms of the Anglo-Japanese has subscribed to the loans of her allies to the full extent of her
Alliance, which imposed upon her the duty of conducting financial capacity, and supplied them with much-needed munimilitary operations in common with her ally in the regions of tions and other war materials. And especially to Russia has eastern Asia and of safeguarding mutual interests therein. Japan assured an uninterrupted flow of ammunition, guns and Japan also joined the solemn agreement entered into between rifles, foodstuffs and clothing the Entente Powers to make no separate peace. So long, there. In examining the question of despatching Japanese troops to fore, as peace in conformity with the wishes of her allies is not Europe, it must be noted, in the first place, that it was neither the concluded, Japan is of course a belligerent warring against the wish of her allies nor that of Japan that she should thrust herself Central Powers.
upon the European stage. The writer is aware that the subject has But since the capture of the German stronghold in the Far been discussed by certain publicists of some Allied countries, but Cast on November 7, 1914, and the sweeping of enemy war he has no knowledge of any formal request having been made ships out of the Eastern seas, with the exception of her recent to Japan by any of the Allied Governments to send an expedinaval activity in the Mediterranean, Japan has apparently been tionary force to Europe. The reason is not far to seek. Japan's standing aloof from the great conflict. The question is there proper sphere of activity is in the Orient and on the eastern fore often asked, “ Why is this aloofness on the part of Japan? Pacific. It was for this reason that, when she entered the war, Why is she not fighting on the European battlefields, whereas Japan by an agreement with her ally limited her naval and the United States, who joined the ranks of the Allies half a military activities to the Far East and its waters. True, the year ago, is to-day mustering all her military resources and sphere of her naval operations was gradually extended. It was sending to Europe her sons by hundreds of thousands ?”
first extended to the South Seas, then to the Indian Ocean, then The geographical position Japan occupies and the peculiar to the Cape of Good Hope, then to embrace the Pacific, and international situation she finds herself in have determined the finally to certain parts of the Mediterranean, where a fleet of part she should play in the war. In view of these circumstances, Japanese destroyers is to-day co-operating with the Allied to Japan was assigned by her allies the task of destroying the fleets in the operations against the enemy submarines. But so German power in the Far East and of preserving peace and far as the movement of Japan's land forces is concerned the safeguarding the Allied interests therein. That this duty has basis of action first agreed upon still remains intact, for no been, and is, being discharged by Japan with fidelity and cause that justifies its alteration has yet appeared. thoroughness is patent to those who have closely followed the As The Outlook well remarks: “Just as the United States course of events in the Orient during the past three years. must be the leader in affairs on the American continent, so What is not generally known, however, is the fact that since Japan must sound the dominant note in the East. Let, then, the reduction of Kiaochau and the capture of German naval Japan use its vast influence in the Orient, and in the Occident bases in the South Seas, the Japanese navy has been keeping a let the United States on one side of the Atlantic and the vigilant watch over the wide expanse of waters from the Red Sea democratic countries of Europe on the other side take the lead." to the Yellow Sea, and a large portion of the Pacific, involving in It seems, then, but proper that, so far as purely military opera the operations an enormous extent of cruises made by the fleets tions are concerned, the war in the Occident should be met by the European and American Allies. It is, in fact, none of tain high in Vladivostok. The only alternative would, then, be Japan's part to intrude herself upon the European fields. Such to transport Japanese troops by sea. But wbere can we secure an enterprise is entirely out of harmony with the wise and far- the required ships? In transporting a million, Japanese soldiers sighted policy that should guide Japan, for in undertaking it nothing short of this number would prove of any effective she is bound to face the dilemma of either impairing ber hard- value-with all the necessary paraphernalia of war, it would won military prestige or of reawakening the cry of “ Yellow probably require four millions of tonnage-in other words, one Peril," which is now fortunately on the point of being committed thousand ocean-going ships of four thousand tons each; and i. to oblivion. Would it not, furthermore, be a mark of discours constant flow of munitions and foodstuffs must also be provided tesy, to use a mild word, on the part of Japan to think of send for The construction of Japanese guns and rifles and the pecu. ing troops to the assistance of her European allies? Those who liar dietary needs of Japanese soldiers would make it impracti. advocate in an easy fashion the despatch of a Japanese force to cable for her European allies to supply the ammunition and Russia for the purpose of rehabilitating the morale of Russian provisions for the Japanese army. Were Japan to commandeer troops completely ignore the psychology of the Russian people. for the purpose of transportation the entire fleet of her merchant
In the next place, there are almost insurmountable difficulties marine fit for ocean voyage, not only would much timein the way of despatching an expeditionary force from Japan according to some estimates it would take two years and a halfto Europe. There is first the question of difference in race, be expended before the completion of the transportation prolanguage, habit, and diet existing between the Japanese and gramme, but in the meantime the commerce of the Far East European troops, which would by no means be easy to adjust. with America and Europe would be completely paralyzed. There is next the question of the tremendous cost involved in the The foregoing will suffice to explain why Japan has not sent expedition. According to some authorities, such an expedition an expeditionary force to Europe and to convince any one that it would cost Japan $2,000,000,000 a year Rich as she has sud would be of far greater benefit to her allies that Japan devote denly grown to be, Japan is still burdened with a heavy debt, her energies in other directions than the one touched upon. bequeathed as a heritage of the costly Russo-Japanese War. There are many ways for Japan to serve the Allied cause. It Japan cannot bear the burden of a distant oversea expedition. would of course be foolish for one to predict that no emergency
But the foremost of all difficulties is that of transportation will ever arise when it may become an imperative duty for Japan The Trans-Siberian Railway, although it may have seen a con- to surmount every obstacle in her way, to risk all, sacrifice all, siderable improvement through the efforts of American engi- at the altar of the common cause. It need not be emphasized neers, is still in a paralyzed condition, or at least overtaxed in that Japan stands ready to do everything within her power to hauling across Siberia the military provisions piled up moun- see victory perch over the banners of the Allied nations.
II-AMERIGA AND JAPAN IN THE TRADE OF CHINA
BY BARON BUNKICHI ITO
*PECIAL FINANCE COMMISSIONER OF JAPAN TO THE UNITED STATES THE vastness of the market sibilities of China has never amounted to 125,905,000 taels. These are the figures of the been recognized by the Amazoan people.
maritime customs of China. Now compare these figures with those Once the Chinese field is reasonably opened up for the of the pre-war year—those of 1913. The result will be seen to be reception of foreign goods and the people educated to use them, nothing less than sensational. American exports to China gained Japan will not have the power to supply one hundredth of the something like fifty-two per cent, and American imports from Chinese demand. There is room in China for the trade, not only China about ninety-two per cent. It is not difficult to account for of the United States and of Japan as well, but also of the so this change, of course. With the outbreak of the great war China called competitors from Europe.
could not get from Europe the things she was wont to get from An impression prevails in the United States that the interests there. She had to turn to the United States and other countries. of Japan and America in China are incompatible, that they are The Chinese demand for American goods increased markedly fundamentally antagonistic and are destined to collide right as the result of this situation. And at the same time the United along, and more especially over the trade of China.
States found it necessary to buy a good deal more of materials The impression is wrong--as far as I can see, it is about as from China, largely owing to the tremendous activity of her wrong as most fashionable impressions are very apt to be. factories in getting out goods to supply the belligerent Powers.
Let us view this theme from the standpoint of the trade of Japan's trade with China of course has grown apace since the the two countries with China. It is true that the American cot beginning of the war. But the ratio of growth of her China trade tons have shown a decrease of late in the amount of sale to the falls below that of the United States. Last year Japan exported Chinese customers. People at once jumped at the conclusion to China goods amounting to 160,490,000 haikwan taels in value, that the reason of all that was the Japanese competition. In the and imported from China 112,922,000 taels' worth of goods. The past there may have been instances where the American cotton total trade, therefore, amounted to 273,412,000 haikwan taels. goods were crowded out of a certain section of the Chinese In the total it is far above that of the American trade with market through the competition of the Japanese goods. But China ; but when one compares these figures with those of things are quite different at present. The weaving industry of 1913—the year before the opening of the war-he will readily China itself has gone ahead at a rather remarkable pace in late find that Japan has gained only thirty-four per cent in her exyears. As a result, the native products naturally have cut ports to China and seventy-two per cent in her imports from her. down the amount of foreign importation of cottons. They drove And this comparatively disappointing showing of Japan's out the American cottons. They also drove out the Japanese Chinese trade is not so astounding, after all. Japan has many goods of similar grade. They work impartially against the advantages over the other great trading powers as far as the Japanese and American goods alike. The Chinese products do Chinese market is concerned-her geographical position with not compete with a fine grade of cottons (some of the British reference to the Chinese market, a more intimate knowledge of makes, for example), for the simple reason that the Chinese do China, and a greater facility in accommodating the demands of not produce the higher-grade goods. Therefore, unless the her Chinese customers, etc. At the same time, it is equally true American cotton mills specialize in the high-grade articles, they that the development of her industries is still far from attaining are compelled to face the competition from the output of the a position of filling the Chinese demands for a thousand and native mills.
one articles of foreign manufacture. As a matter of statistical fact, the United States has made Most of us know that the China trade will increase with the greater progress in the Chinese trade than Japan has since the years. What we are rather unmindful of is the awakening of beginning of the world war. In 1916 the United States sold to industrial China. All over China spinning-mills and factories China goods amounting to 53,824,000 haikwan taels, and her for the manufacture of textiles, matches, knitted goods, soap, imports from China amounted to 72,081,000 haikwan taels in glass, and other simpler forms of industries are springing up at value. Therefore the total trade of America with China a really remarkable pace. Japan, naturally, feels the effect of
THE JAPANESE SPECIAL FINANCE COMMISSION NOW IN THE UNITED STATES Left to right, bottom row: Baron Bunkichi Ito, Secretary in the Extraordinary Industrial Investigation Bureau, Department of Agriculture and Commerce, Mr. Chozo Koike, Director of the Kuhara Head Office, Osaka; Baron Tanetaro Megata, member of the House of Peers ; Dr. Seiji Hishida, Secretary Interpreter to the Government General of Cho-sen (Korea); Mr. Takenosuke Sakaguchi, Technical Inspector in the Extraordinary Investigation Bureau, Department of Finance. Top row : Mr. Osamu Matsumoto, Secretary in the Department of Finance ; Mr. Kenjiro Matsumoto, Representative of the Yasukawa Mining Co., Fukuoka ; Mr. Yoshi
taro Yamashita, General Manager of the Sumitomo Firm, Osaka ; Mr. Umekichi Yoneyama, Managing Director of the Mitsui Bank, Ltd., Tokyo all this more keenly than any other exporting country. Unless able to hold their own in the days following the present world the industrial activity of Japan takes a tremendous forward war. step in the near future, the Japanese exports to China will be It will be seen, therefore, that America and Japan can, and gradually crowded out by the native products, for the simple will, naturally be forced to get along in harmony and side by reason that the large proportion of Japan's exports to China · side as far as the Chinese markets are concerned. Japan will for are products of a simpler form of manufacturing industry—the some years to come keep on supplying China with the products of very kind which China can herself produce now or very soon. the simpler forms of industry-with the comparatively cheaper It is different with the United States. The steady advance of grades of goods. And at the same time the United States will play industrial China is a good thing for America. It will be some the title role of purveyor of the higher grade of manufactures and time before China attains the height of complex industrial more expensive wares to China. Therefore there should be little activity which prevails in the United States. Meanwhile, the room for collision between the activities of the two countries. more China develops her simpler forms of industrial activities, Of course it goes without saying that Japan is straining her the greater would be her demand for machinery, steel products, every sinew and will in the future exert herself to the utmost chemical products, drugs, dyestuffs, and such other things as to develop her own industries. She expects confidently, indeed, the United States is able to furnish. And these are the very to rank with the best of the manufacturing nations of the earth articles in which Japan cannot hope to compete with the at no distant day. Some day she will be putting out the same United States.
high grade of wares as the United States is to-day producing; In the past the chief articles of American export to China she will come in keen competition with the American products were kerosene oil, cottons, wheaten flour, timber, iron and steel, when that time arrives. But at the same time what one should paper, and cigarettes. In the years preceding the world war bear constantly in mind is this all-important fact : the American trade with China was not exactly in a flourishing China is a huge country. condition, but after the coming of the world war all was The market possibilities of that land are very great. Let her changed. American goods have taken the place of European perfect her transportation facilities, let her open up her now supplies in the Chinese markets to a very large extent; iron and dormant natural resources. All that will be bound to result in an steel manufactures, machinery, leather goods, cars, chemical immense increase of her purchasing power; which, in turn, products and drugs, and various other goods have been imported would mean the increase of her demands for goods and prodfrom the United States. The result of all this was the remark- ucts of every sort. Japan has not the slightest doubt that the able growth of the American trade with China.
expansion of the Chinese market possibilities will outrace the Now Japan did not get much benefit out of this sudden stop- Japanese ability to supply her demands. In short, she believes page of the European supplies to China and to the rest of the that there will be more than ample room in China for both Far East. This does not accord with the general impression American and Japanese goods when the industrial activity of prevailing in the United States; nevertheless, it is true. And the Japan attains the height where she will be an active competitor reason for it all is not far to seek, for in many departments of of America in the higher grade of wares. iron and steel manufactures, in chemical industries, Japan had Heretofore the one fundamental cause of the faltering advance not attained any marked advance. It was more than she could of the foreign trade of China has been her utterly inadequate do to supply her own needs in some of those products. Indeed, transportation facilities. With the perfection of her transportashe had to import a major portion of these things from abroad. tion lines, therefore, we shall see a remarkable advance in her
And the point is that these steel products and the fruits of trade. And this all-important factor—the building of railways chemical industries are the very things which China will demand and other means of communication in China—is dependent inore and more of with her economic advance. There is little room altogether on foreign capital. China has no funds or technical for doubt that the American wares which have taken the place ability to build them, any more than she can open up her owu of the European ones in the markets of China will be amply resources without outside help.