Germany in 1917; Its Armies, Finance, Food, and

other Conditions.

The War losses and military strength of Germany at the close of 1917 were difficult to state with absolute accuracy. Approximately the casualties to date, as based upon official lists and involving death, capture or permanent disability, were 4,000,000; close British estimates of the total, allowing for delayed German lists, etc., made it 4,500,000. The Danish Society for the Study of the War, in a Monograph upon German conditions, gave a general estimate of the indirect war loss of life in that Empire from Aug. 1, 1914, to Aug. 1, 1917, as (1) a net increase of mortality amongst persons above one year of age, 1,436,000 and (2) a decrease in the birth-rate totalling 2,482,000. The original German mobilization was from ten to twelve millions; the generally accepted total was the first figure with J. W. Gerard, the U. S. Ambassador at Berlin during that time, presenting the latter estimate. G. H. Perris, a well-known British war-correspondent (London Chronicle, Sept. 14) put the figures at 10,500,000, the definitive losses at 4,000000, with 6,100,000 as the total of remaining effectives on all fronts, on lines of communication and in the interior, of Divisions in formation or in depôts-the balance composed of wounded under treatment and not yet exempted or returned to service.

Colonel E. P. Repington of The Times, after a visit to France and Flanders, wrote on May 4, 1917: "The Germans are still very strong, in fact stronger than they ever have been. It is not open to us to reckon they have less than 4,500,000 men in the field on both fronts, 500,000 on the line of communications, and 1,000,000 in depôts in Germany. They have increased the number of Divisions in the west to 155." F. H. Simonds, the United States correspondent, asserted a larger estimate of casualties and stated on Aug. 1 that: "German casualty lists, as we now obtain them, show a total loss in killed, captured and wounded of 4,500,000. The figure is too low by half a million, I believe; but, accepting it for the moment, it shows that 1,100,000 Germans have been killed and 600,000 are missing or prisoners. Here is an immediate, absolute loss of 1,700,000. Of the 2,800,000 remaining casualties, not more than 60 per cent. have returned to the firing line and, despite various claims, this is a high estimate. This adds 1,100,000 to the permanent loss, which makes it 2,800,000." If we add to this casualty totalsafely one of 5,000,000 up to the close of the year-the Danish estimate of decreased birth-rate, the loss of population was heavy.

Mr. Gerard's figures, as given in the American press of Aug. 7, were as follows: "I want to bring home to the people of the United States and Canada the gravity of the situation; because I want to tell them that the military and naval power of the German Empire is unbroken; that of the 12,000,000 men whom the Kaiser has called to the colours, but 1,500,000 have been killed, 500,000 permanently disabled, not more than 500,000 are prisoners of war and about 500,000 constitute the number of wounded or on the sick list of each day, leaving at all times about 9,000,000 effectives under arms.' There was a vast difference between this total of 9,000,000 and the 6,000,000 indicated above, confirmed by General de Lacroix and

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reduced by Hillaire Belloc to 5,000,000. Much depended upon the estimate of men originally called and also upon the proportion of wounded returning to the colours. Ledebour, the Socialist, was quoted at Washington on Oct. 30 as stating in the Reichstag that we have had 1,500,000 dead, three or four million wounded, of whom 500,000 are crippled for life and two million absolutely invalided. That makes all together 6,000,000 men lost during three years!" As to this vital point of mobilization the Associated Press on Sept. 9 gave out from French Army Headquarters the following statement:

The French semi-official estimate of German divisions on their front in August, 1914, was 961⁄2 with 261⁄2 divisions on the Eastern front; on Sept. 1, 1917, the total was placed at 147 divisions in the West and 92 in the East. On Oct. 20 of this latter year Colonel Repington estimated 2,200,000 German troops as being on the Western front and 1,400,000 in the East. During the last months of the year large numbers of the latter were moved west to France or Flanders or Italy, with a considerable number of Austrians. Hence, no doubt, the miscalculation or surprise which caused the British victory at Cambrai to be turned into a practical reverse with the German capture of many guns and tanks and thousands of prisoners. Hence the change in the military situation which appeared to transfer the aggressive on the Western front from Entente to Teuton hands and enabled Marshal Von Ludendorff to say in the Vienna Neue Freie Press (Dec. 3), with obvious reference to Russia that: "Modern war is a war of peoples, not of armies, and a war ends now when an enemy people is defeated. There are no decisive battles, as in former wars. The battles merely have an indirect influence on the whole national system, inducing decay and collapse." Back of the man-power of Germany was the fact, alleged by Carl W. Ackerman and other correspondents and asserted in detail by Gertrude Baeumer, the leading German woman writer, that 9,000,000 German women were working for a living in 1917very largely relieving men in every species of work developed by the War.

The financial situation of a country is not seen in figures alone and only a few statistics as to German conditions-official at thatwere available during this period. The German ideas of system and method were rigorously applied and immense sums of money

raised by the internal loans and limited taxation which were the only forms of Government finance open to the country; Bank resources and reserves were freely utilized and manipulated while Krupp's huge financial resources were used to the utmost. The total sum raised by the nation in loans up to the beginning of 1917 was about $12,000,000,000. From July 23, 1914, to Jan. 1, 1917, the published figures of the Reichsbank or Imperial Bank of Germany -an institution corresponding in its functions to those of the Bank of England-showed* that its loans and discounts, including Treasury bills, increased from about $200,000,000 to $2,124,000,000, or by, approximately, $1,924,000,000. In the same period its gold reserve was said to have increased from $323,000,000 to $625,000,000. According to Sir Edward Holden, the British banker, on Dec. 31, 1917, the notes issued had increased over July 23, 1914, by $2,200,000,000, the credit accounts by 1,680 millions, and the Exchange bills by 3,200 millions.

External influences created great difficulties. Dr. Lentze, Prussian Minister of Finance, in his Budget speech of Jan. 16, said: "The Blockade makes itself felt more and more. It cannot be denied that it lies heavily on the country, and yet it must be borne. Encroachments on private interests, the difficulties of supplying foodstuffs, and their costliness certainly are very great." As the year 1917 went on the monetary situation became more unpleasant. The normal increase of National wealth, which had been placed at 2,500 million dollars a year by Herr Helfferich and 2,000 millions by Herr Hauerstein, President of the Reichsbank, was obliterated by war conditions and the elimination of trade. The result was to make even the payment of yearly interest on national borrowings of which interest the lowest estimate was 750 million dollars-difficult without calling upon national income. This interest total was more than the whole of the pre-war Government Allied writers and statisticians believed Germany to be bankrupt at the end of 1917 but its people did not know it and only the close of the War could prove the exact position. Meantime, and apart from speculations, the mark, which at the end of 1915 was quoted at 20% discount, had dropped a year later, in neutral centres, to 30%; in June, 1917, it was 44% below normal, in August 50%, and in September 54%. On July 26 the London Times announced that the silver florin or 2-mark piece was to be withdrawn from circulation and replaced by paper money in order to market the coins in Holland for the price of the silver. The Votes of Credit in the Reichstag in the first three years of war were as follows:

revenues.

ApproximateValue
in Dollars

$1,250,000,000

2.

1,250,000,000

3.

2,500,000,000

4.

2,500,000,000

5.

2,500,000,000

6.

3,000,000,000

NOTE.-Bulletin of the National City Bank of New York.

Oct. 3, 1916.

Internal conditions as to food, etc., also made the financial situation difficult, but there was at the close of 1917 one factor of obvious strength, and a source, also, of national revenue. Krupp's, with its huge factories and workshops and 100,000 workers, its great coal mines at Essen with at least 10,000 miners, its rolling mills at Annen and Gruson, its blast furnaces and shipbuilding yards, its vast steel and shell and gun industries, was in full operation despite occasional aerial attacks, brief strikes, shortage of unskilled labour, and fires. Scarcity of railway rolling-stock, trucks and waggons was an element of weakness, as was the decreasing product of iron-ore, but machinery and electricity and chemicals and shipbuilding trades were active industries, though coal production, as a whole, was short and many other great industries of the past, such as silk, dress-goods, woollens, lace and embroidery, were dead or stagnant. The total loss of German shipping to the beginning of 1917 was estimated at 2,250,000 tons-through mines, torpedoes, and capture-but an unknown number of new ships were under construction or had been built and a $75,000,000 subsidy was voted in 1917. Certain war industries in addition to Krupp's were tremendously prosperous with big dividends-though much of the profits went into War loans.

The vital elements of industrial decline were (1) the curtailment in raw materials and (2) the curtailment of markets. The greatest war production-and it was tremendous-could not compensate for these losses. Despite the sweep of Austrian and Turkish markets, the great and growing financial strength of the farmers and larger merchants, Saxony lost its large foreign markets for dress goods and porcelains and cheap cottons and leather and notions; other States lost their customers for carpets and bronze-ware and chocolates and varied lines of textile goods. Substitutes of every kind there were but hardly any were really satisfactory and in food they were sorrowful imitations of the real thing. Substitutes for Saltpetre from Chile and aluminum from France were of the more satisfactory kind; mineral oils were made from coal, synthetic rubber was invented and utilized, paper replaced cloth with success in some respects. All the press writers who had been in Germany during periods of the War-Ackerman, Corey and Roth, for instanceagreed in declaring in 1917 that there was no great concealed preparation for after-war conditions and industrial conquest. But there was no doubt as to the war industries and Entente estimates of artillery early in 1917, put the German army supply at 8,000 field guns, alone, compared with 3,850 in 1914 with a five-times greater supply of heavy guns than in 1914.*

What of the food supply? As to this vital problem official facts were non-existent to the world-public outside of Germany but there was a cloud of testimony covering every detail. The information was contradictory at times as to definite conclusions, yet the net impression to the close student was one of increasing general privation, insufficient nourishment for the masses, severe

*NOTE. According to semi-official figures published by G. H. Perris, in January, 1918, the German armies were supplied with 21,000 cannon of all kinds.

pressure upon individual and national morale. At the beginning of this year there was great scarcity in butter, cheese, sugar, cocoa, fats, oils, pork, coffee, tea, oranges, lemons, bananas and eggs. Vegetables were available and also certain fruits. Everybody lived under the card system-with degrees of difficulty in obtaining food -but this had often meant nothing except wise organization and Government foresight. Continuous efforts of the most vigorous and skilful kind had been and were under way to make Germany and its Allies independent of outside food supplies. Grain and meats were the essentials and many animals were killed out of the 23,000,000 cattle, originally in stock, in order to save grain and fodder. An estimated 3,000,000 head of cattle, 6,000,000 sheep and 2,000,000 pigs were obtained in Roumania and no doubt divided with Austria; Poland was swept bare of stock and other conquered regions had furnished supplies for a time. Wheat and potatoes were also obtained in Roumania and fresh fields of cultivation developed. Large supplies of iron-ore and some other raw material, with heavy food-stocks, were obtained from neighbouring neutrals either through fear or for profit or a little of each.

As to details, there were early in 1917 Government tickets for meat, bread, butter, sugar, potatoes, soap, eggs, etc.; people had to wait for hours to be served with their poor supplies; clothes were, under regulation by magistrates, limited in quantity and very expensive; large numbers of shops were closed in Berlin and other places, private motor-cars had disappeared and lighting was bad; war-bread was made largely of rye or potato flour or barleymeal, fish was obtainable with game, fowl, etc., to those who could pay the bill; prices of staple foods were carefully controlled by the Government; milk was largely confined to supplying young children and invalids; there was a steady increase during the year in illnesses traceable to mal-nutrition. All reports indicated worse conditions as the year progressed. Correspondents and others coming away with the American Ambassador were not agreed in their conclusions but all proclaimed conditions then as bad. There were serious food riots at Cologne, Kiel, Dresden, Dusseldorf and Leipsic, while the workmen at Krupp's struck for larger rations and those working the longest hours were successful.

Brig.-Gen. J. E. Kuhn, President of the U. S. Army War College, told the New York Times (Mar. 11) on his return from Germany that "economic conditions are trying everywhere, especially in the case of the Central Powers. It is certain that the German people are on the edge of starvation and the bravest man will succumb to an empty stomach." The Cuban Minister at Berlin, Dr. Aristides Aquero, told the press of Paris (June 7) on his way home, that "for every element of the civil population, regardless of the social class to which it belongs, the daily ration at the time of my departure consisted of 250 grammes of bread, 35 grammes of meat, 350 grammes of potatoes, 10 grammes of fat and 8 grammes of sugar. One egg monthly was allowed and one portion of war marmalade monthly." Of the National livestock 27,000,000 head of cattle had fallen to 19,000,000, 30% of the swine had been killed and sheep had disappeared almost entirely.