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ErORTU. STRIES I No. 3832 December 15, 1917 {From BEGINNING





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I. The Military and Political Situation.

A Reply to Dr. Dillon. By Politicus Fortnightly Review 643
II. The Beginning of the German “Peace
Offensive." By George A. B. Dewar

NINETEENTH CENTURY AND AFTER 651 III. John-a-Dreams. By Katharine Tynan.

Chapter VII. The Strange Woman.
Chapter VIII. The Evening of the

Storm. (To be continued)
IV. How It Will Strike Posterity . . . . TIMES 666
V. The Great Companion. By Samuel
McComb .

VI. The Vindication of Driver Thomas
Tomkins. By F. G. . . . . .

OUTLOOK 678 VII. The Temper of Ireland. By an Irish

Soldier . . . . . MANCHESTER GUARDIAN 682 VIII. Time the Neutral . .

. NATION 685 IX. Trial by Telephone . . . . SATURDAY REVIEW 687 X. Sale or Barter .

. . LONDON Post 690 XI. Birds and Airmen. By T. A. C. ManchESTER GUARDIAN 692 XII. The Rule of St. Pacificus. By Thomas Seccombe.

. . New WITNESS 694 XIII. An Eremite of Today .

SPECTATOR 696 WARTIME FINANCE XIV. Currency Inflation and High Prices

SPECTATOR 699 XV. The Oil Question . . . . . SATURDAY REVIEW 701

A PAGE OF VERSE XVI. Monaltree. By Neil Munro. . Blackwood's MAGAZINE 642 XVII. Homewards. By Hugh A. MacCarlan . . New WITNESS 642 XVIII. "O What Saw You?" By Wilfred Wilson Gibson . . 642 BOOKS AND AUTHORS .






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A REPLY to DR. Dillon.

In the October issue of the Fortnightly Review” the place of honor was given to an article, “The War Current and Peace Eddies,” by Dr. Dillon. Dr. Dillon is one of our most distinguished political writers. He has done work of the greatest national value before and during the war. His productivity has been prodigious. Being exceedingly clear-sighted and well informed, many of his warnings would have been of the utmost value to the nation had they been heeded in time. His last contribution to the Fortnightly Review has deeply disappointed many of his admirers. In surveying the present situation Dr. Dillon devoted the bulk of his pages to the Russian catastrophe. He painted Russian conditions in the darkest colors. The remaining part of his essay was filled chiefly with a somber analysis of the internal conditions prevailing among the European Powers leagued against Germany. Nothing was done by the writer to relieve the gloom of his picture. The internal conditions prevailing among the Central Powers were scarcely touched upon, and only one or two lines were given to the entrance of the United States, which was merely casually mentioned as if it were a fact of comparatively minor importance. I shall endeavor to show in the following pages that America's participation in the war is a factor of the most farreaching significance, that the intervention of the Great Republic will probably decide the war, and that the internal conditions of Germany and her allies are by no means favorable.

The accession of the United States is exceedingly valuable to the Allies for moral and for material reasons. The mere fact of America's interven

*THE Living AGE, Dec. 8, 1917.

tion has filled with hope and confidence the struggling peoples of the Entente, and it has correspondingly depressed the Germans and their allies. The grasp, vision, and energy of Mr. Wilson have acted like a powerful tonic upon the statesmen of the Entente and the citizens. The vast preparations of the United States, which are daily described in the papers, must convince every reader that the Powers leagued against Germany are bound to win. Wars are decided by moral and material factors. The United States have promised unlimited financial support to the nations attacked by Germany, and they have already devoted more than £4,000,000,000 to the war to the great relief of this country and its allies. Financial considerations need no longer trouble the statesmen of the Entente Powers. America's industrial preparations can be described only as gigantic. She is raising millions of soldiers and building huge fleets for their transport to Europe. In view of America's activities in the financial, industrial, and military fields, the entry of that country into the war seems bound to be decisive. To those who are insufficiently acquainted with American history the Great Republic is composed of peaceful people who are chiefly absorbed in money-making. English people are apt to refer to the United States as “the land of the almighty dollar,” and Germans call America “Dollarica.” The Americans are a young nation. They overflow with energy and animal spirits, and, like the European adventurers from whom they have sprung, they are born fighters. If we wish to form an opinion as to America's military aid in the future we may usefully turn to the past for guidance.

The war between England and the American colonies in the eighteenth century was difficult and very protracted, but, measured with modern standards, it was not a first-class war. After its victorious issue the Americans were engaged only in a number of small expeditions against Red Indians, Mexicans, etc. When, in 1861, war broke out between the Northern and the Southern States of North America the Americans were believed to be an utterly unwarlike people. They were certainly unused to war and were quite unprepared for their trial. According to the official returns, the strength of the United States Army on January 1st, 1861, was 16,402. Of this small number, 1,745 were absent. The few regular soldiers were distributed over a very large number of garrisons. Warlike training had been utterly neglected. There was no military organization worthy the name.

The United States depended almost exclusively on England for iron, steel, and manufactured articles of every kind. The industries necessary for equipping a large army did not exist. Before 1861 the Americans paid for their imports of manufactured goods chiefly with the export of cotton and sugar which were produced in the South. When the Southern States revolted the position seemed desperate. The Americans of the North could not equip a large army with their own factories nor could they equip it with weapons bought in Europe, for they had no commodities wherewith to pay for large imports. At the beginning of the struggle the Northern States called out only 75,000 men, because arms and even clothes were lacking for a larger number. Rifles and fowling-pieces of every kind had to be utilized. However, the native ingenuity and determination of the race overcame all difficulties. The Americans, who were

reputed to be the most unwarlike nation in the world, raised, to the surprise of all other nations, the largest, best-equipped, and best led army of the time. According to information laid before Congress by the Secretary of War, the Northern States furnished altogether the gigantic number of 2,653,062 soldiers. The number of soldiers raised by the Southern States is not exactly known. It is usually estimated that these enrolled a million fighters. The gigantic efforts of the American people will best be appreciated when we remember that in 1860 the population of North America

was, according to the Census, as follows: Population of Northern and Western States, 22,339,978 White population of Southern States . . . 5,449,463 Colored population of Southern States . . . . 3,653,880 9,103,343 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,443,321

The Southern negroes did not participate in the fighting. It follows that a population of about 28,000,000 raised approximately 3,500,000 soldiers. It appears, therefore, that the percentage of soldiers raised by America during the Civil War was slightly larger than that raised by the United Kingdom in the present struggle.

The Americans succeeded not only in raising the largest and the finest army of the time, the greatest difficulties notwithstanding, but they fought with the utmost determination. According to the “Official Record,” the Northern armies lost in action and by disease 359,528 officers and men. In addition, vast numbers of soldiers died after their discharge. Some estimate that the Northern States lost altogether 500,000 lives through the war. The losses of the Southern States are not exactly known. The combined losses of the North and South may be estimated to have come to from 700,000 to 1,000,000.

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