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THE MILITARY AND POLITICAL SITUATION.
A REPLY TO DR. DILLon.

In the October issue of the Fortnightly Review* the place of honor was given to an article, "The War Current and Peace Eddies," by Dr. Dillon. Dr. Dillon is one of our most distinguished political writers. He has done work of the greatest national value before and during the war. His productivity has been prodigious. Being exceedingly clear-sighted and well informed, many of his warnings would have been of the utmost value to the nation had they been heeded in time. His last contribution to the Fortnightly Review has deeply disappointed many of his admirers. In surveying the present situation Dr. Dillon devoted the bulk of his pages to the Russian catastrophe. He painted Russian conditions in the darkest colors. The remaining part of his essay was filled chiefly with a somber analysis of the internal conditions prevailing among the European Powers leagued against Germany. Nothing was done by the writer to relieve the gloom of his picture. The internal conditions prevailing among the Central Powers were scarcely touched upon, and only one or two lines were given to the entrance of the United States, which was merely casually mentioned as if it were a fact of comparatively minor importance. I shall endeavor to show in the following pages that America's participation in the war is a factor of the most farreaching significance, that the intervention of the Great Republic will probably decide the war, and that the internal conditions of Germany and her allies are by no means favorable.

The accession of the United States is exceedingly valuable to the Allies for moral and for material reasons. The mere fact of America's interven*THE LIVING AGE, Dec. 8, 1917.

tion has filled with hope and confidence the struggling peoples of the Entente, and it has correspondingly depressed the Germans and their allies. The grasp, vision, and energy of Mr. Wilson have acted like a powerful tonic upon the statesmen of the Entente and the citizens. The vast preparations of the United States, which are daily described in the papers, must convince every reader that the Powers leagued against Germany are bound to win. Wars are decided by moral and material factors. The United States have promised unlimited financial support to the nations attacked by Germany, and they have already devoted more than £4,000,000,000 to the war to the great relief of this country and its allies. Financial considerations need no longer trouble the statesmen of the Entente Powers. America's industrial preparations can be described only as gigantic. She is raising millions of soldiers and building huge fleets for their transport to Europe. In view of America's activities in the financial, industrial, and military fields, the entry of that country into the war seems bound to be decisive.

To those who are insufficiently acquainted with American history the Great Republic is composed of peaceful people who are chiefly absorbed in money-making. English people are apt to refer to the United States as "the land of the almighty dollar," and Germans call America "Dollarica." The Americans are a young nation. They overflow with energy and animal spirits, and, like the European adventurers from whom they have sprung, they are born fighters. If we wish to form an opinion as to America's military aid in the future we may usefully turn to the past for guidance.

The war between England and the American colonies in the eighteenth century was difficult and very protracted, but, measured with modern standards, it was not a first-class war. After its victorious issue the Americans were engaged only in a number of small expeditions against Red Indians, Mexicans, etc. When, in 1861, war broke out between the Northern and the Southern States of North America the Americans were believed to be an utterly unwarlike people. They were certainly unused to war and were quite unprepared for their trial. According to the official returns, the strength of the United States Army on January 1st, 1861, was 16,402. Of this small number, 1,745 were absent. The few regular soldiers were distributed over a very large number of garrisons. Warlike training had been utterly neglected. There was no military organization worthy the name.

The United States depended almost exclusively on England for iron, steel, and manufactured articles of every kind. The industries necessary for equipping a large army did not exist. Before 1861 the Americans paid for their imports of manufactured goods chiefly with the export of cotton and sugar which were produced in the South. When the Southern States revolted the position seemed desperate. The Americans of the North could not equip a large army with their own factories nor could they equip it with weapons bought in Europe, for they had no commodities wherewith to pay for large imports. At the beginning of the struggle the Northern States called out only 75,000 men, because arms and even clothes were lacking for a larger number. Rifles and fowling-pieces of every kind had to be utilized. However, the native ingenuity and determination of the race overcame all difficulties. The Americans, who were

reputed to be the most unwarlike nation in the world, raised, to the surprise of all other nations, the largest, best-equipped, and best led army of the time. According to information laid before Congress by the Secretary of War, the Northern States furnished altogether the gigantic number of 2,653,062 soldiers. The number of soldiers raised by the Southern States is not exactly known. It is usually estimated that these enrolled a million fighters. The gigantic efforts of the American people will best be appreciated when we remember that in 1860 the population of North America was, according to the Census, as follows:

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The Southern negroes did not participate in the fighting. It follows that a population of about 28,000,000 raised approximately 3,500,000 soldiers. It appears, therefore, that the percentage of soldiers raised by America during the Civil War was slightly larger than that raised by the United Kingdom in the present struggle.

The Americans succeeded not only in raising the largest and the finest army of the time, the greatest difficulties notwithstanding, but they fought with the utmost determination. According to the "Official Record," the Northern armies lost in action and by disease 359,528 officers and men. In addition, vast numbers of soldiers died after their discharge. Some estimate that the Northern States lost altogether 500,000 lives through the war.

The losses of the Southern States are not exactly known. The combined losses of the North and South may be estimated to have come to from 700,000 to 1,000,000.

We can best visualize the significance of these figures by remembering that a loss of about 1,500,000 lives in the case of Great Britain would be equivalent to the loss suffered by the United States in their gigantic struggle.

But for a few days the Civil War lasted four years. It destroyed nearly 1,000,000 lives and it cost directly and indirectly about £2,000,000,000. As the national wealth of the United States was in 1860, £3,200,000,000, it follows that the Americans devoted a sum equivalent to about two-thirds of their entire national wealth to the struggle. In 1861-65 the Americans fought not for liberty and existence, as they do now, but merely for the integrity of their great country. The Northern States would have remained free, great, and independent had they allowed the Southern States to secede. They fought rather for an idea and for an ideal than for existence. If the Americans succeeded in raising the largest and finest army in the world when the cause was comparatively unimportant, if they were willing to devote almost 1,000,000 lives and two-thirds of their wealth to a war in which liberty and existence were not at stake, how much greater a sacrifice will they be ready to make when they are fighting for their all as they do

now.

When, in 1861, America entered the Civil War everything had to be created, a civil and military organization, an army, war industries, and even industries which contributed only indirectly to the war, such as the manufacturing of woolen goods, of boots, etc. The United States have entered upon the present war under infinitely more favorable conditions. It is true the old standing army was only 100,000 strong, but the American military organization was excellent both as regards the personnel and the spirit prevailing among the officers.

While the officers of the British professional army were largely furnished by the leisured class, by the squirearchy, by men who looked at matters in a leisurely way, the American Army is officered by keen, striving, ambitious men, by typical wide-awake Americans, by men similar to those who have made American business such a huge success by their resourcefulness and determination. I had the pleasure of meeting a considerable number of highly-placed American military and naval officers before the war, and I was surprised and delighted at their ability and energy. All the defects existing within the American Army and Navy were due practically exclusively to civilian interference, which has played havoc also within the English Army and Navy before the outbreak of the

war.

The high ability and the resourcefulness of the American officers may be seen by the fact that they are in peace time engaged upon numerous civil tasks of the highest importance. American officers do a great deal of surveying, take a considerable part in the national administration, and are employed upon engineering work of every kind. The extremely capable American officers are largely engaged in peace time upon the regulation of the American rivers, upon the improvement of harbors, the building of canals, the irrigation of the dry territories, etc., and their capacities are so highly esteemed by the public in general that large engineering enterprises are preferably entrusted to men in the active army. The greatest creative

triumph of the American officers employed in administration and engineering is the construction of the Panama Canal, which was carried out by army men. In Cuba and in the Philippines American soldiers and sailors have shown administrative and

engineering abilities similar to those of Colonel Goethals.

The disappointments of the Allies have been largely due to the fact that modern war requires the highest administrative gifts and that it is extremely difficult to find men who can organize on a comparatively huge scale. In the course of the war it was discovered that men who had had some experience in directing large commercial or industrial undertakings possess great abilities for military organization. The managers of the British railways were called in to assist the Generals. A young railway man, Sir Eric Geddes, was made First Lord of the Admiralty. Modern war is a colossal business and a highly complicated business. It is a business in which labor-saving machinery is of the utmost value, for big guns, machine guns, torpedoes, etc., are, after all, only labor-saving devices. Now the Americans have the highest administrative abilities. In no country in the world is industrial and commercial organization as perfect as it is in the Great Republic, and in no country is labor-saving machinery more highly valued. The great English railways are very small undertakings if compared with the great American railways or the great American industrial enterprises. In 1912 the total railway mileage of the United Kingdom was 23,350 miles. In the same year the Vanderbilt system had 26,126 miles, the Pennsylvania system had 21,389 miles, the Harriman system had 22,716 miles, the Gould system had 22,318 miles, the Moore-Reid system had 21,321 miles, and the Rockefeller system had 18,119 miles of railroad. In the United States there are six railway systems, each of which controls a mileage approximately equivalent to the whole railway mileage of the United Kingdom, and the Vanderbilt interest alone controls a

mileage considerably greater than the entire mileage of the British railways. Compared with the great American railway lines the British railways are small indeed.

In industry also America possesses the most gigantic undertakings in the world. A single American company produces more iron and steel than the whole of the United Kingdom. Up to now German organization has been facile princeps. Before long the German organizers will meet their masters. The Americans mean to show Europe how to conduct war, and I shall not be surprised if they succeed in this, for war is a "big business."

The United States will render assistance of the utmost value not only by providing a huge, perfectly equipped, perfectly organized and well-led army, but also by rendering services of the utmost value in the industrial field. Modern wars are won not only on the battlefield, but also in the factory. Hitherto England has been the principal arsenal of the Alliance. America's accession will give us a far more powerful arsenal. America has a population of more than 100,000,000. The United States can therefore, in case of need, furnish twice as large an army as the United Kingdom has done and they can produce twice as large a quantity of munitions of war, assuming that American production per man is only as large as is British production. In reality American production per man is very much larger than is British production, as has been very fully shown in an article which was published in the Fortnightly Review in August, 1913. The Americans have not only far more perfect machinery than have the English, but they employ three times as many horse-powers. Besides, restriction of output on the part of the workers is practised only rarely in the

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