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We can best visualize the significance of these figures by remembering that a loss of about 1,500,000 lives in the case of Great Britain would be equivalent to the loss suffered by the United States in their gigantic struggle. But for a few days the Civil War lasted four years. It destroyed nearly 1,000,000 lives and it cost directly and indirectly about £2,000,000,000. As the national wealth of the United States was in 1860, £3,200,000,000, it follows that the Americans devoted a sum equivalent to about two-thirds of their entire national wealth to the struggle. In 1861-65 the Americans fought not for liberty and existence, as they do now, but merely for the integrity of their great country. The Northern States would have remained free, great, and independent had they allowed the Southern States to secede. They fought rather for an idea and for an ideal than for existence. If the Americans succeeded in raising the largest and finest army in the world when the cause was comparatively unimportant, if they were willing to devote almost 1,000,000 lives and two-thirds of their wealth to a war in which liberty and existence were not at stake, how much greater a sacrifice will they be ready to make when they are fighting for their all as they do now. When, in 1861, America entered the Civil War everything had to be created, a civil and military organization, an army, war industries, and even industries which contributed only indirectly to the war, such as the manufacturing of woolen goods, of boots, etc. The United States have entered upon the present war under infinitely more favorable conditions. It is true the old standing army was only 100,000 strong, but the American military organization was excellent both as regards the personnel and the spirit prevailing among the officers.

While the officers of the British professional army were largely furnished by the leisured class, by the squirearchy, by men who looked at matters in a leisurely way, the American Army is officered by keen, striving, ambitious men, by typical wide-awake Americans, by men similar to those who have made American business such a huge success by their resourcefulness and determination. I had the pleasure of meeting a considerable number of highly-placed American military and naval officers before the war, and I was surprised and delighted at their ability and energy. All the defects existing within the American Army and Navy were due practically exclusively to civilian interference, which has played havoc also within the English Army and Navy before the outbreak of the War. The high ability and the resourcefulness of the American officers may be seen by the fact that they are in peace time engaged upon numerous civil tasks of the highest importance. American officers do a great deal of surveying, take a considerable part in the national administration, and are employed upon engineering work of every kind. The extremely capable American officers are largely engaged in peace time upon the regulation of the American rivers, upon the improvement of harbors, the building of canals, the irrigation of the dry territories, etc., and their capacities are so highly esteemed by the public in general that large engineering enterprises are preferably entrusted to men in the active army. The greatest creative triumph of the American officers employed in administration and engineering is the construction of the Panama Canal, which was carried out by army men. In Cuba and in the Philippines American soldiers and sailors have shown administrative and


engineering abilities similar to those of Colonel Goethals. The disappointments of the Allies have been largely due to the fact that modern war requires the highest administrative gifts and that it is extremely difficult to find men who can organize on a comparatively huge scale. In the course of the war it was discovered that men who had had some experience in directing large commercial or industrial undertakings possess great abilities for military organization. The managers of the British railways were called in to assist the Generals. A young railway man, Sir Eric Geddes, was made First Lord of the Admiralty. Modern war is a colossal business and a highly complicated business. It is a business in which labor-saving machinery is of the utmost value, for big guns, machine guns, torpedoes, etc., are, after all, only labor-saving devices. Now the Americans have the highest administrative abilities. In no country in the world is industrial and commercial organization as perfect as it is in the Great Republic, and in no country is labor-saving machinery more highly valued. The great English railways are very small undertakings if compared with the great American railways or the great American industrial enterprises. In 1912 the total railway mileage of the United Kingdom was 23,350 miles. In the same year the Wanderbilt system had 26,126 miles, the Pennsylvania system had 21,389 miles, the Harriman system had 22,716 miles, the Gould system had 22,318 miles, the Moore-Reid system had 21,321 miles, and the Rockefeller system had 18,119 miles of railroad. In the United States there are six railway systems, each of which controls a mileage approximately equivalent to the whole railway mileage of the United Kingdom, and the Wanderbilt interest alone controls a

mileage considerably greater than the entire mileage of the British railways. Compared with the great American railway lines the British railways are small indeed. In industry also America possesses the most gigantic undertakings in the world. A single American company produces more iron and steel than the whole of the United Kingdom. Up to now German organization has been facile princeps. Before long the German organizers will meet their masters. The Americans mean to show Europe how to conduct war, and I shall not be surprised if they succeed in this, for war is a “big business.” The United States will render assistance of the utmost value not only by providing a huge, perfectly equipped, perfectly organized and well-led army, but also by rendering services of the utmost value in the industrial field. Modern wars are won not only on the battlefield, but also in the factory. Hitherto England has been the principal arsenal of the Alliance. America's accession will give us a far more powerful arsenal. America has a population of more than 100,000,000. The United States can therefore, in case of need, furnish twice as large an army as the United Kingdom has done and they can produce twice as large a quantity of munitions of war, assuming that American production per man is only as large as is British production. In reality American production per man is very much larger than is British production, as has been very fully shown in an article which was published in the Fortnightly Review in August, 1913. The Americans have not only far more perfect machinery than have the English, but they employ three times as many horse-powers. Besides, restriction of output on the part of the workers is practised only rarely in the United States. How important America's accession is bound to be in the industrial domain may be gauged from the fact that among the nations the United States are the largest producers in the world of wheat, maize, oats, tobacco, cotton, timber, cattle, pigs, coal, petroleum, iron and steel, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium, woolen goods, cotton goods, leather, etc. Modern war and modern industry are based upon iron and steel. In 1912 iron and steel production in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom compared as follows:

Production of Production of

Iron in 1912 Steel in 1912 United States . . 29,727,000 31,251,000 Germany. . . . . . . 17,582,000 17,024,000 United Kingdom. 8,751,000 6,003,000

Before the war Germany produced about twice as much iron and steel as did the United Kingdom. She produced more iron and steel than did England, France, Russia, and Italy combined. Germany's victories were largely due to her gigantic iron and steel industry. The American iron and steel industry is twice as large as the German and four times as large as the British. Before very long the German iron and steel industry will meet its master.

Germany's industrial progress has been great, but America's has been greater. Between 1900 and 1915 America's coal production has increased from 240,789,310 tons to 474,660,256 tons, American copper production from 270,588 tons to 619,647 tons, American lead production from 270,824 tons to 507,026 tons, American pig-iron production from 13,789,242 tons to 29,916,213 tons, American steel production from 10,188,329 tons to 32,151,036 tons. In those industries which are most essential for the conduct of war American production has doubled between 1900 and 1915, except in the case of steel, in which production has more than

trebled. ' How gigantic America's industrial power is may be gauged from the fact that in 1914 the United States possessed 2,372,696 automobiles and that the output of automobiles in that year was valued, at wholesale prices, according to the industrial census, at £126,500,000. Although the United States are the home of the cheap popular motor car, the value of motor cars produced in 1914 in America was as great as the value of the entire output of the gigantic British cotton industry. America's factories have been put upon war work. Factories which have turned out motor cars by the hundred thousand can be converted into munition works, and the conversion has been carried out with American energy, rapidity, and completeness. Germany and her allies will be staggered by America's production of weapons and war machinery of every kind. In heavy guns, explosives, shells, flying machines, submarine chasers, rifles, etc., America's record will beat the believable. Before long Germany will be snowed under. Before long she will repent having challenged the industrial giant among the nations. Wars are decided not only by military and industrial strength, but also by financial power. The wealth of the United States is at least twice as great as is that of the United Kingdom. Between 1900 and 1916 the deposits in the American banks have increased from £1,447,000,000

to £4,576,000,000, or have consider

ably more than trebled. . In view of America's gigantic wealth and its incredibly rapid increase, the United States will easily be able to bear financial burdens which at present seem inconceivable. Some years ago the German Government sent one of its ablest business men, Kommerzienrat Goldberger, to the United States on a journey of investigation. After his return he embodied his impressions in a book entitled Das Land Der Unbegrenzten Möglichkeiten (The Country of Unlimited Possibilities). Before long the German Government and people will bitterly regret having incurred the hostility of a numerous, proud, and warlike people who possess the greatest military, industrial, and financial resources in the world. The entry of the United States into the war has sealed Germany's fate. The United States are a far more important military factor than Russia. That will be seen before long. Pessimists may believe my estimate of the United States to be exaggerated. They may say: “America is undoubtedly raising a large army and helping the Allies very greatly with money, munitions, etc., but she can render no effective military aid. She is too far away. She cannot transport her huge army across the sea.” People who argue thus must believe that the Americans are a nation of fools. The Americans are business men and they would not be so idiotic as to raise an army of millions and to equip it for war if it were impossible to send it across to Europe. The British dominions and colonies have sent at least a million men to the war. The bulk of these have come from far-away India, Australia, and New Zealand. England and America combined will certainly be able to transport across the sea the American Army, however large. For all we know a very considerable portion may already be on French and on British soil. The Americans have been wise enough to leave the direction of affairs not to political bunglers, but to the ablest soldiers and business men. A huge fleet of transports is rapidly being built. Those who imagine that the American Army will be principally occupied with drill and manoeuvres in the United States training camps will before long be

surprised by the appearance of huge and perfectly equipped American armies on the Western Front. I do not share Dr. Dillon's opinion that Russia can no longer be counted upon as a military factor. The Russian Revolution has followed a course curiously similar to the French Revolution. At the time when Frenchmen were massacring each other, when the rights of property had disappeared, when the administration of the law had become a sham, when a pair of boots cost 10,000 francs in paper, when all seemed chaos, France's Continental neighbors intended partitioning the country, treating it like another Poland. Patriots and men of ability arose. The nation found herself, the army was recreated, and the nations which had hoped to despoil and divide France were expelled from the country and defeated in battle after battle. Possibly Russia will find herself and surprise once more the world by her warlike achievements. Germany and Austria evidently reckon with an awakening of Russia. Otherwise they would withdraw their armies from the Eastern front. However, even if we assume with Dr. Dillon that Russia must be ruled out as a military factor, Germany's position would not be much improved. Instead of fighting a war-weary and indifferently equipped Russian Army, the Germans would have to fight a huge, perfectly equipped and determined American host. However, whereas Germany had the assistance of AustriaHungary and Turkey against Russia, she may not have the assistance of these countries in fighting in the West. It seems more than doubtful whether the Austrians, Turks and Bulgarians will be willing to protect Germany's Western front. The original engagements of these States viewed probably only military action in the East and the South. It seems more than doubtful whether Austria, Turkey and Bulgaria would be willing to fight Germany's battles and to assist in preserving Germany's conquests. Austria, who is at present not at war with the United States, would, in case of a complete Russian collapse, presumably concentrate all her strength against Italy, and Turkey might endeavor to regain the territories which she has lost to the British. Germany, with 67,000,000 inhabitants, would have to meet single-handed on the Western Front the combined armies of France, England, the British Dominions, and the United States, which together have 200,000,000 white inhabitants. The German forces would be overwhelmed by a three-fold superiority in men and by a more than three-fold superiority in war material of every kind. In his article, “The War Current and Peace Eddies,” Dr. Dillon left out of account the American factor on the one hand, and the possibility of internal troubles within the Central Alliance on the other hand. The internal difficulties existing within democracies are generally known. They are proclaimed from the housetops, and thus they appear magnified in the eyes of all observers. On the other hand, in countries which are under the iron rule of a military absolutism there prevails the peace of the grave or of the convict prison. The politicians and the Press in the countries of the Central Alliance have been muzzled. Unity and discipline prevail, as in a convict prison, through fear. However, there are indications too numerous to mention that there are grave dissensions between Germany and her Allies; that Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria are anxious to end the war almost at any price; that there are acute differences between the South German States and Prussia; that the people in Germany, Austria-Hungary,

Turkey and Bulgaria are approaching a state of mind which borders upon despair. I do not attach unduly great importance to the revolt which has apparently taken place in the German Navy. The facts given are too few to form an opinion as to the importance of the movement. Possibly it was engineered from above with a view to striking at the Socialist Minority Party, which has been connected with this affair by Herr Michaelis, the Imperial Chancellor. The Socialist Minority Party is the only Party within the Reichstag which opposes the Government and condemns the conduct of the war. Its parliamentary representatives are only few, and if their supporters in the country were also only few it would scarcely be worth the German Government's while to trouble about them. However, it appears likely that the Socialist Majority Party has been gained over, perhaps bought, by the Government, that Scheidemann and his friends represent nobody but themselves, and that the handful of deputies of the Socialist Minority Party represent the bulk of the German working men and of the German masses. That would explain the Government's action. In its anxiety to preserve absolute discipline within the State, the German Government has abolished the freedom of the Press and the freedom of public meeting. It has tightly screwed down all the safety-valves. Meanwhile the pressure of steam within the German boiler is continually increasing, and there is no indicator from which we may learn the degree of pressure. A régime of repression was successful in Russia for a long time. Apparently the nation was dumb, was without a will of its own. However, a moment came when the pressure became unbearable, when the Russian boiler burst, when the powerful Russian autocracy found itself overnight ut

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