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United States.

How important Amer

ica's accession is bound to be in the industrial domain may be gauged from the fact that among the nations the United States are the largest producers in the world of wheat, maize, oats, tobacco, cotton, timber, cattle, pigs, coal, petroleum, iron and steel, copper, zinc, lead, aluminium, woolen goods, cotton goods, leather, etc. Modern war and modern industry are based upon iron and steel. In 1912 iron and steel production in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom compared as follows:

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Before the war Germany produced about twice as much iron and steel as did the United Kingdom. She produced more iron and steel than did England, France, Russia, and Italy combined. Germany's victories were largely due to her gigantic iron and steel industry. The American iron and steel industry is twice as large as the German and four times as

large as the British. Before very long the German iron and steel industry will meet its master.

Germany's industrial progress has been great, but America's has been greater. Between 1900 and 1915 America's coal production has increased from 240,789,310 tons to 474,660,256 tons, American copper production from 270,588 tons to 619,647 tons, American lead production from 270,824 tons to 507,026 tons, American pig-iron production from 13,789,242 tons to 29,916,213 tons, American steel production from 10,188,329 tons to 32,151,036 tons. In those industries which are most essential for the conduct of war American production has doubled between 1900 and 1915, except in the case of steel, in which production has more than

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trebled. How gigantic America's industrial power is may be gauged from the fact that in 1914 the United States possessed 2,372,696 automobiles and that the output of automobiles in that year was valued, at wholesale prices, according to the industrial census, at £126,500,000. Although the United States are the home of the cheap popular motor car, the value of motor cars produced in 1914 in America was as great as the value of the entire output of the gigantic British cotton industry. America's factories have been put upon war work. Factories which have turned out motor cars by the hundred thousand can be converted into munition works, and the conversion has been carried out with American energy, rapidity, and completeness. Germany and her allies will be staggered by America's production of weapons and war machinery of every kind. In heavy guns, explosives, shells, flying machines, submarine chasers, rifles, etc., America's record will beat the believable. Before long Germany will be snowed under. Before long she will repent having challenged the industrial giant among the nations.

Wars are decided not only by military and industrial strength, but also by financial power. The wealth of the United States is at least twice as great as is that of the United Kingdom. Between 1900 and 1916 the deposits in the American banks have increased from £1,447,000,000 to £4,576,000,000, or have considerably more than trebled. In view of America's gigantic wealth and its incredibly rapid increase, the United States will easily be able to bear financial burdens which at present seem inconceivable. Some years ago the German Government sent one of its ablest business men, Kommerzienrat Goldberger, to the United States on a journey of investigation. After his

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Pessimists may believe my estimate of the United States to be exaggerated. They may say: "America is undoubtedly raising a large army and helping the Allies very greatly with money, munitions, etc., but she can render no effective military aid. She is too far away. She cannot transport her huge army across the sea." People who argue thus must believe that the Americans are a nation of fools. The Americans are business men and they would not be so idiotic as to raise an army of millions and to equip it for war if it were impossible to send it across to Europe. The British dominions and colonies have sent at least a million men to the war. The bulk of these have come from far-away India, Australia, and New Zealand. England and America combined will certainly be able to transport across the sea the American Army, however large. For all we know a very considerable portion may already be on French and on British soil. The Americans have been wise enough to leave the direction of affairs not to political bunglers, but to the ablest soldiers and business men. A huge fleet of transports is rapidly being built. Those who imagine that the American Army will be principally occupied with drill and manœuvres in the United States training camps will before long be

surprised by the appearance of huge and perfectly equipped American armies on the Western Front.

I do not share Dr. Dillon's opinion that Russia can no longer be counted upon as a military factor. The Russian Revolution has followed a course curiously similar to the French Revolution. At the time when Frenchmen were massacring each other, when the rights of property had disappeared, when the administration of the law had become a sham, when a pair of boots cost 10,000 francs in paper, when all seemed chaos, France's Continental neighbors intended partitioning the country, treating it like another Poland. Patriots and men of ability arose. The nation found herself, the army was recreated, and the nations which had hoped to despoil and divide France were expelled from the country and defeated in battle after battle. Possibly Russia will find herself and surprise once more the world by her warlike achievements. Germany and Austria evidently reckon with an awakening of Russia. Otherwise they would withdraw their armies from the Eastern front. However, even if we assume with Dr. Dillon that Russia must be ruled out as a military factor, Germany's position would not be much improved. Instead of fighting a war-weary and indifferently equipped Russian Army, the Germans would have to fight a huge, perfectly equipped and determined American host. However, whereas Germany had the assistance of AustriaHungary and Turkey against Russia, she may not have the assistance of these countries in fighting in the West. It seems more than doubtful whether the Austrians, Turks and Bulgarians will be willing to protect Germany's Western front. The original engagements of these States viewed probably only military action in the East and the South. It seems more than doubtful

whether Austria, Turkey and Bulgaria would be willing to fight Germany's battles and to assist in preserving Germany's conquests. Austria, who is at present not at war with the United States, would, in case of a complete Russian collapse, presumably concentrate all her strength against Italy, and Turkey might endeavor to regain the territories which she has lost to the British. Germany, with 67,000,000 inhabitants, would have to meet single-handed on the Western Front the combined armies of France, England, the British Dominions, and the United States, which together have 200,000,000 white inhabitants. The German forces would be overwhelmed by a three-fold superiority in men and by a more than three-fold superiority in war material of every kind.

In his article, "The War Current and Peace Eddies," Dr. Dillon left out of account the American factor on the one hand, and the possibility of internal troubles within the Central Alliance on the other hand. The internal difficulties existing within democracies are generally known. They are proclaimed from the housetops, and thus they appear magnified in the eyes of all observers. On the other hand, in countries which are under the iron rule of a military absolutism there prevails the peace of the grave or of the convict prison. The politicians and the Press in the countries of the Central Alliance have been muzzled. Unity and discipline prevail, as in a convict prison, through fear. However, there are indications too numerous to mention that there are grave dissensions between Germany and her Allies; that Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria are anxious to end the war almost at any price; that there are acute differences between the South German States and Prussia; that the people in Germany, Austria-Hungary,

Turkey and Bulgaria are approaching a state of mind which borders upon despair. I do not attach unduly great importance to the revolt which has apparently taken place in the German Navy. The facts given are too few to form an opinion as to the importance of the movement. Possibly it was engineered from above with a view to striking at the Socialist Minority Party, which has been connected with this affair by Herr Michaelis, the Imperial Chancellor. The Socialist Minority Party is the only Party within the Reichstag which opposes the Government and condemns the conduct of the war. Its parliamentary representatives are only few, and if their supporters in the country were also only few it would scarcely be worth the German Government's while to trouble about them. However, it appears likely that the Socialist Majority Party has been gained over, perhaps bought, by the Government, that Scheidemann and his friends represent nobody but themselves, and that the handful of deputies of the Socialist Minority Party represent the bulk of the German working men and of the German masses. That would explain the Government's action. In its anxiety to preserve absolute discipline within the State, the German Government has abolished the freedom of the Press and the freedom of public meeting. It has tightly screwed down all the safety-valves. Meanwhile the pressure of steam within the German boiler is continually increasing, and there is no indicator from which we may learn the degree of pressure. A régime of repression was successful in Russia for a long time. Apparently the nation was dumb, was without a will of its own. However, a moment came when the pressure became unbearable, when the Russian boiler burst, when the powerful Russian autocracy found itself overnight ut

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terly powerless. In Germany events may take a similar development. single man and no group of men, except the handful of Minority Socialists in the Reichstag, dare express their discontent with the Government. Terror has made the German mute. Everyone is afraid to take the initiative in complaining. However, when oppression, misery and distress become too great to be borne there may be a great and a very sudden upheaval throughout Germany. Such an elementary movement requires no elaborate organization and no leaders. It may come about automatically. A trifling cause may lead to a gigantic outbreak.

Austria-Hungary, Turkey and Bulgaria, who entered the war in the hope of great territorial and financial benefits, have experienced nothing but loss. They have begun to understand that they are not Germany's partners, but merely Germany's tools. Their sentiments towards Germany are hatred mingled with fear. Partners easily agree in a business which prospers. They usually quarrel when the business is declining and when ruin is staring them in the face. The young Austrian Emperor has shown more than once that he wishes to free himself from his German shackles, that he wishes to

make peace. Similar sentiments ap

pear to prevail in Turkey and Bulgaria. Almost over night the impregnable German Alliance may be dissolved. In case of a defeat the Austrian Emperor would lose the bulk of his territories and subjects. He can save his position only either by a victory, which is impossible, or by a premature peace. If he should decide upon concluding a separate peace, he might fairly claim compensation for the millions of Poles, Serbians, Czechs, Roumanians, Italians, etc., whom he is bound to lose. He might be compensated by the Allies by receiving from them Silesia, which was Austrian

until 1740, and the South German States which followed Austria's lead until 1866. Prussia has deprived Austria of Silesia and the South German States. It would only be just if the Habsburgs should obtain once more the territories which Prussia took away from them. By receiving Silesia and the South German States in exchange for her Slavonic and Latin territories Austria-Hungary would once more become a chiefly German State. The country would retain its great position in the world. The Habsburg dynasty would be saved. Moreover, by a separate peace Austria-Hungary would no doubt be able to obtain preferential treatment with regard to war indemnities. It is only logical that Austria-Hungary should abandon a war into which she was forced by Germany. If the Emperor Charles should retire from the fray, Turkey and Bulgaria would not be able to continue the fight, for they depend upon Germany for their war material.

The Germans fight for booty. Their opponents fight for right and justice. The Germans who had been promised brilliant and most profitable victories, have begun to recognize that the war is bound to result in their impoverishment and general ruin. They have begun to recognize that the war was not forced upon them, as their Government has mendaciously asserted, but that it was frivolously and criminally begun by the Emperor and his camarilla. The sense of wrong suffered will cause France and her Allies to fight to the end. They are determined to free their territories from their assailants. The German people, on the other hand, will, when military and economic pressure increases, become more and more eager to abandon a fight in which they are bleeding because of the ambition and vanity of their rulers. A long-drawnout war of conquest is apt to become

extremely unpopular. The French who flew to arms and who resisted the nations of Europe with the utmost enthusiasm when France was invaded, became weary of Napoleon's brilliant wars of conquest. Hence, when at last victory was turned to defeat, the French looked on with indifference. They refused to join the army and to defend the country. In 1814 and 1815 they greeted with joy the invading armies of the Allies. Suddenly Napoleon found himself deserted by all, except by the army. However, even the army was no longer trustworthy. Many of the best French generals, who previously had secretly opposed Napoleon's insatiable ambitions, became his open enemies. Before long The Fortnightly Review.

we may witness similar developments in Germany.

Hitherto the German Army has been victorious in the eyes of the German people, who have been mesmerized by the record of territories won. On the map Germany has indeed been victorious. The numerous defeats of the army have been explained away. If the German forces should have to abandon vast stretches of territory, if Belgium should have to be evacuated, if large numbers of Allied aviators should bombard the German towns, if Germany's defeats can no longer be explained away the German masses will suddenly become exceedingly warweary. That moment may be near at hand. There is no cause for pessimism. Politicus.

THE BEGINNING OF THE GERMAN "PEACE OFFENSIVE."

A famous soldier told us the other day in a speech, that whenever he felt at all depressed he made it a rule to go to the Front, which at once set him up again. And the Front is indeed a wonderful place for tonics, strong tonics. If only our war-weary ones, who are "fed-up by this blessed War," could be taken out in batches by Messrs. Cook and be given a few whiffs —whiffs, I mean, of strong air on the heights of the Meuse, or the Carso or on Vimy Ridge, might not the majority of them come back, presumably, well set up against the campaign of 1918? But the excellence of its tonics for the debilitated is not the only advantage which the Front enjoys, at times markedly, over the Base. Thus, in what Lord Curzon called an intelligent anticipation of events before they occur, the Front has often shown itself superior to the Base; and these events are by no means always of a strictly field or military nature, but include the world political-not the party

game misnamed "politics," for the Front, thank Heaven, knows nothing of that today-and the world diplomatic. For example, there is the German peace offensive now beginning in earnest, but as yet not nearly at its height. It has been sprung on most people here, alike upon those who are deemed to “know about things" and upon those who are not, as a surprise. That is not true of the Front, or at any rate of our Front. So far back as last June it was confidently expected, I might almost say it was known, there (by those whose business it is to "know about things") that the Germans meant to start in earnest, before the close of the Allies' offensive this season, another sort of offensive of their own

the peace offensive. I am not sure who first employed these words "peace offensive"; whoever it was, he coined a discreet phrase. "Peace offensive" exactly epitomizes the enemy's plan. That plan is to seek a peace; which, it is true, does not sound very offensive.

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