But then the peace is to be sought, it is to be won, (1) by causing ill blood between different members of the Allied group, and ultimately by splitting up the Entente. It is, in this relation, especially aimed at separating Great Britain and France. (2) By giving encouragement and arguments-specious and cowardly, still arguments— for peace to our own small circle of well-advertised "pacifists," as well as to the war-weary ones aforesaid and Tired Tims, who are uneasy about their purses if not their persons, and who are perpetually moaning over their supertaxes and the impending "national ruin, Sir," prediction. Professor Delbrück, a clever German "Moderate," has lately been writing about this latter peace-hungering group. He has got hold of quite a number of the wrong people, including Mr. Balfour and Mr. Asquith and others who are a great deal less war-weary than he is himself; but unfortunately he is right in his surmise that there is a tired and selfish group, an imboscato group, which wishes to get out of the War by some backdoor or other and back to what he styles "the old English way of living." These people have hitherto not been watched or remarked on as they deserve. All the attention has been given to about half a dozen brazen performers who are less dangerous because they act more or less in the open and do not give lip-service-like the others to the Cause of the Allies.

Such, then, is the policy of the Germans today in their new peace offensive. It is clever, of course, compact of the usual German villainy. They are going to work it with their usual tenacity. If at the moment I write it has apparently been put aside by the reply of the Kaiser to the Vatican-a reply which offers nothing that can be called terms or a basis to start on it will be taken up again in the near future. The enemy knows

perfectly well when he has a good thing; and if he puts it away, he only does so for the purpose of improving it, e.g., the smaller submarine.

The new peace offensive of Germany will prove a great peril presently unless we can counter it by exceedingly vigorous action in the field, by raising, as a defiance of it, new armies; and also by really thorough and able propaganda. As to this last, it is impossible to say honestly that we do it well. Our official propaganda is the world's laughing-stock in many ways: its fault is that, alas, it does not propagate.

Hitherto peace moves have not been very formidable. Thus the move in which the United States was involved last year made us no doubt hot and uncomfortable for a while. We should have liked at least every decent person I then met would have likedto smash a few windows and things when war-weary ones came to us and talked about the position being quite interesting, and about the need at any rate for a clear definition of the Allies' aims and terms and so on; always a suspicious, even disgusting, attitude when everyone knows perfectly well what the Allies' terms and aims arenamely, the terms which Mr. Asquith stated in 1914. When that first preliminary peace skirmish was going forward, though we felt hot and uncomfortable enough, we could not say all we should have liked to say, at least could not say it aloud. It would have been bad form, and worse policy, at that time to say anything embarrassing to the United States. We had to growl and bear it a while until President Wilson had played his partplayed it, as we now know, with singular foresight and intellectuality. We had to wait until the Allies had made their firm and dignified reply, when our rabbits at home who had been above ground nibbling at peace

bolted back to their burrows.

But, though annoying, that first peace skirmish was not very subtle. Nor was it menacing, always provided we did nothing in anger to ruffle our relations with the United States.

and But

Stockholm, the next move in the same rascally but clever German game, was a little more serious. It was contrived in order to hurt us with Russia, and also to set Labor at home against the Government. Mr. Lloyd George has turned out a far better Prime Minister than some of us expected. There is no one to touch him in politics proper today. He has vivid force and imagination and live courage. Some of us who were not anxious to see him Prime Minister have to go somewhat in sackcloth and ashes today-and try to console ourselves with the reflection that, after all, this is quite an appropriate economical attire in war time. Mr. Lloyd George does seem to have come rather near to letting down his Government and the country over the truly disgusting Stockholm incident. No doubt there were grave difficulties. It does not do to alienate Labor and it does not do to run counter to, or grossly offend, Russia. It is idiotic, both in the depraved and the original sense of that word, to do either. We cannot hope to win the War, or save the country, without Labor—which, as a fact, is playing its part nobly on the whole whilst if we insult or deride Russia, the end of that folly will be that she will really go out of the War and leave 120 German divisions to descend on us and our Allies in France and Italy. Lightly to do anything to alienate either Labor or Russia today is to play the Germans' game: let there be no mistake about that. A good German loves us to abuse Russia and abuse Labor. He knows that then we are helping him to trample down Europe with his bloody iron hoof.

Mr. Lloyd George, then, had grave difficulties over Stockholm-as had the French Government. But, even duly allowing for these, there was a strong feeling even among his admirers that the incident was not well managed, and that the decision against Stockholm was not reached rapidly enough. The moral of Stockholm is that we can scarcely be too quick and decided in striking hard against all peace skirmishes of that nature. There is virtually no Neutral now in the world we need be fearful of offending; also, we know Labor at home is sound and solid enough, taken as a whole; whilst, as for our Ally Russia, it would really have strengthened not weakened Kerensky and his patriotic Government if we had come out at once hard and straight against Stockholm as a German dodge and villainy. Until Germany drops on her knee-which she will only do when broken on the field— it is madness for Mr. Lloyd George or any of our statesmen or parties to deal tenderly with any peace move; for one and all these peace moves are part and parcel of Germany's settled, nicely calculated war policy. They are Hohenzollern moves. They are Prussian Militarism absolutely.

A third peace skirmish, quite a little reconnaissance in force indeed, is going on now and is scarcely yet ended. It began apparently with a raid by the Catholic Socialist, Herr Erzberger; it went on with drumfire from the Vatican. I was in Italy when the Vatican made its miraculous proposals in favor of Italy's ceding to Austriajust when Italy was starting on her glorious campaign on the Carso and Italian Alps-what she has been able to redeem of her people and territory in the Trentino in two years' heroic war; for that appears to be what the Vatican proposal, so far as Italy was concerned amounted to. An Italian statesman, to whom I mentioned it at

the time, refused to discuss this proposal. He said he could not regard it at all seriously. And indeed, now that Germany has replied to the Vatican, as well as Austria, it is evident that this third German-or pro-German-peace move cannot be taken very seriously. Belgium is not even mentioned-nor Roumania, nor Serbia. Poland is out of it too. Germany seems to have judged that it will not serve her ends to put forth anything like a definite suggestion as to returnable property. Either she perceives that the Vatican's declaration has gone badly in all the Allied countries, or the military situation on the whole seems to her at present not so unfavorable. Whatever the cause, this third peace move by or on behalf of Germany looks like dying away. But there is a great deal more of this kind of thing in store for us. The German and pro-German peace offensive is only just beginning. Germany is and has been doing no more than dangle the cherry of peace in front of our lips. There is no greater and more obvious certainty on earth than that presently, when the pressure upon her armies becomes severer, she will suffer the "pacifists" and the warweary, the credulous and the selfish and sybaritic sections of the populations of the Allied Powers to have a bite and a taste of it. She may begin in earnest first on Russia, offering some substantial or alluring terms; though that depends on what happens in Russia within the next two or three months. Before the great new armies of the United States begin to pour in formidable strength into France next year, and the grip of three Great Powers on the Western Front tightens on her to the strangling point, Germany will breathe the word "Belgium"; and then, a little later, pronounce it alud.* Now that word instantly

*1 hat interesting and bold German publicist Harden did, according to a Press report.

makes an appeal to the faint-hearted, selfish and sybaritic sections of our own people. These sections recognize, we all must recognize, that, so far as Great Britain's own selfish casual interests are concerned, so far as her self-preservation and safety in the immediate future are concerned, the German occupation of Belgium is a deadly menace. If Germany proposes to go out of France and out of Belgium, these sections would feel that they could breathe again. Antwerp was described by Napoleon as a pistol at England's head. The occupation of Northern France and Belgium by Germany is not a mere pistol at England's head, it is a nest of machine guns. Hence when Germany, feeling at length hard pressed, proposes in earnest to go out of France and Belgium, every "pacifist" in this country and every sybarite who shrinks from sacrifice will be instantly alert, eager to see forthwith the end of a war from which, respectively, the conscience of the first and the body of the second revolts. There will be a disgraceful and dangerous peace clamor in this country when Germany artfully makes this proposal. No sooner does Germany play the first of her suit of trumps in this peace game-so far she has only put down on the board insignificant cards unlikely to take a trick-than the "pacifists" and sybarites will be for ending the play. They will protest that we have won, that we have got all in reason we can demand: the Germans out of France and out of Belgium-it will seem to them almost too good to be true!

Bearing in mind the above, one is actually relieved to read the Kaiser's reply to the Vatican and to notice that the word "Belgium" is not yet even breathed by him. Our "pacifists" and sybarites and embusqués generally breathe the word the other day-but it seems he fainted in the act.

are disappointed and disillusioned for the time being; and that is something to the good, that is a little to be thankful for. Frankly, I wish with all my heart that Germany would not propose to go out of Belgium and France till she is being beaten out, and until she is clearly on the point of dropping on one knee; for we shall be safe then; whereas if she proposes to go out before she is, militarily, in a very bad and demoralized state the position will at once become dangerous-the weak ones here and in France will be for meeting her half way, and a "draw" will be advocated.

Now suppose, for the sake of argument, that on this basis of the evacuation of France and Belgium by the enemy we had a peace this year or next, before America has time to develop her mighty resources, and before the British Army has had its full, fair chance of clearing Belgium with its own sword wielded by the first soldier of today, Field-Marshal Sir Douglas Haig, master to his finger-tips in the whole art of modern war: would such a peace be honorable, thorough and enduring? The answer is that it would, on the contrary, be dishonorable, unthorough, unenduring. The Belgium and Northern France questions are after all but one side of the War. Even assume Germany ready to give up, or compromise on, Alsace-Lorraine as well as clear out of Northern France and Belgium, that still is but one side of the War. There is Poland; Roumania; Serbia. There is Italy. There is the extremely dangerous association between Germany and Austria, to end which is a very distinct and essential part of the Allied task. There is the reorganization of the whole of the present Austro-Hungarian Empire. If we agreed to close the War without setting up Poland--which must surely have a seaport on the Baltic?-and Roumania and Serbia,

left Austria as she is, we should have lost, not won or drawn, the War. Belgium and the North of France are vital questions, of prime importance to us; but it is absolutely essential that we should enforce terms in regard to all these other points. As for the African Colonies and the Pacific Islands, they can never go back to Germany: quite apart from the Imperial objections-the attitude of South Africa and of Australasia-there are the ethical objections to returning them to Germany which are overwhelming. The natives of Africa cannot be handed back as chattels to the brutal slave-drivers of Germany. A craven peace based on the mere evacuation of Northern France and Belgium with possibly some wretched compromise over Alsace-Lorraine, would overlook all these other profoundly important questions. Italy might as reasonably desire a peace which gave her the Trentino and Istria and left Belgium under the heel of Germany, as we a peace which extricated Belgium but left over the question of the unredeemed territories and people of Italy now under the heel of Austria.

There is only one safe and sane and honorable way: that is, to discourage and condemn in advance any and every peace proposal which does not incorporate the whole demand of the Entente Powers. We know perfectly well what that demand includes: its essentials have been implicit or explicit in a dozen authorized speeches of British and Allied statesmen. It includes as its inexorable minimum:

(1) The complete evacuation of Serbia, Belgium, Northern France and of all other countries ravished and held by the Germans, Austrians or Bulgarians; Alsace-Lorraine to be restored to France; Armenia to be freed from Turkey.

(2) Reparation for damages in those countries.

(3) The cession by Austria to Italy of all the country which Italy is now fighting for.

(4) The close for good and all of the association between Austria and Germany; and the drastic rearrangement of the territories and status of Austria.

On this basis alone Great Britain and the Allies can treat with Germany: until the enemy assents to all four of these demands it will be weakness and dishonor to have any traffic with him save the traffic of the sword. But our "pacifists" and self-centered sybarites will certainly wish to slacken military effort and enter into negotiations, overt or covert, directly Germany proposes merely to evacuate Belgium and Northern France; and there is the gravest danger of the clamor, which the war-weary and debilitated will then raise in favor of peace, rushing the country into some odious negotiations. Hence the peace offensive which is being carefully prepared and systematized by the rulers of Germany today is a lively danger to us and to France. Not an hour should be lost in taking counter measures against this crafty campaign. There are two ways of fighting it. The first is to set to work on creating new Armies to be poured into France against the time when America will be ready. We shall want at least three-quarters of a million more men for next year. Clearing Northern

France and Belgium still remains a gigantic task. It is perfectly well known that we have the men: every crowded city displays that fact. They must be spared from all manner of occupations in which they are at present engaged; and men of over the military age and women workers will take their places. Women are already easily doing work in yards and factories all

over the Kingdom which, it was lately imagined, only young men between twenty and thirty could undertake. I was through Clydeside last month, and saw women in hundreds, in thousands, doing men's work in yards and factories; women the picture of health and happiness-and very pretty, too, in many cases. Trust the women to fill the places of the exempted men in Government offices and in all manner of factories and workshops and on the land today: they are keen and capable.

That is one way we must counter this pestilent and dangerous German peace offensive which will soon be in full swing-perhaps before the winter even. The second method is not military but civilian. We must have without delay a great, fresh propaganda campaign against the German peace offensive. Hitherto our propaganda has been well-meaning but quite ineffective. It has been spasmodic and diffident, and it has been usually too late. What on earth is the use for instance of collecting with infinite labor-and at considerable expense-figures to show what a ham sandwich or a pound of butter costs from month to month in Budapest or Vienna, or what private tutors are paid in Germany, or what the ration of red herring is in Berlin? It has not helped us to starve either Austria or Germany. It is simply idle information, though no doubt curious in its way. What has all our propaganda-I suppose some tens of thousands of pounds' worth of itdone for us in this War so far? I honestly doubt whether its total is so useful as the feat of a party of raiders from the British Front in Flanders today. Our propaganda seems never to have concentrated on vital matters and driven its points clean home. It has been impossible to detect in it either war instinct or conspicuous literary ability. These are distasteful things to write: but they have been