RELATIVE PRICES OF COMMODITIES FOR EACH MONTH, 1902 TO 1907, BY GROUPS

a These figures are correct; those given for 1906 in Bulletin No. 69 were slightly in error.

In this table the average relative prices of farm products are based on 16 articles; of food, etc., on 54 articles in 1902 and 1903 and on 53 articles from 1904 to 1907; of cloths and clothing, on 76 articles from 1902 to 1905 and on 75 articles in 1906 and 1907; of fuel and lighting, on 13 articles; of metals and implements, on 38 articles; of lumber and building materials, on 27 articles; of drugs and chemicals, on 9 articles; of house furnishing goods, on 14 articles, and of miscellaneous, on 13 articles. The average relative prices of all commodities are based on 260 articles in 1902 and 1903; on 259 articles in 1904 and 1905, and on 258 articles in 1906 and 1907.

The table shows that the group of farm products reached the lowest average in November, 1903, and the highest in September, 1907; that of food, etc., the lowest in June, 1905, and the highest in October, 1907; that of cloths and clothing, the lowest in January, February, April, May, and August, 1902, and the highest in September, 1907; that of fuel and lighting, the lowest in April, 1902, and the highest in January and February, 1903; that of metals and implements, the lowest in September, 1904, and the highest in February, 1907; that of lumber and building materials, the lowest in January, 1902, and the highest in April, 1907; that of drugs and chemicals, the lowest in

May, 1906, and the highest in January, 1902, and in August and September, 1907; that of house furnishing goods, the lowest, January to June, 1906, and the highest in August, September, and October, 1907; .while in the miscellaneous group the lowest average was reached in November, 1904, and the highest in July, 1907. It is interesting to see that during the six years the relative price of not a single group was as low as the base-that is, the average price for the 10-year period from 1890 to 1899. Farm products were from 9.9 per cent to 45.5 per cent above base (average price for the 10-year period, 1890 to 1899); food, etc., from 2.7 per cent to 23.5 per cent above base; cloths and clothing, from 1.5 per cent to 29.2 per cent above base; fuel and lighting, from 18.1 per cent to 78.6 per cent above base; metals and implements, from 7.6 per cent to 49.1 per cent above base; lumber and building materials, from 11.4 per cent to 50.5 per cent above base; drugs and chemicals, from 0.2 per cent to 19.1 per cent above base; house furnishing goods, from 8.8 per cent to 20.5 per cent above base; the miscellaneous group, from 9.7 per cent to 30.3 per cent above base; and all commodities combined, from 10.3 per cent to 31.0 per cent above base. All commodities combined reached the lowest average for these years in January, 1902, and the highest in October, 1907.

The course of prices during the months of 1902 to 1907 as represented by all commodities is clearly shown in the graphic table on page 300.

The following table shows the movement in the wholesale prices of raw commodities and of manufactured commodities month by month from January, 1902, to December, 1907. A description of the two classes may be found on pages 285 and 286.

RELATIVE PRICES OF RAW COMMODITIES, MANUFACTURED COMMODITIES, AND ALL COMMODITIES, FOR EACH MONTH, 1902 TO 1907.

RELATIVE PRICES OF RAW COMMODITIES, MANUFACTURED COMMODITIES, AND ALL COMMODITIES, FOR EACH MONTH, 1902 TO 1907-Concluded.

a These figures are correct; those given for 1906 in Bulletin No. 69 were slightly in error.

1907
JULY

LELATIVE PRICES OF RAW AND MANUFACTURED COMMODITIES, BY MONTIIS, 1902 TO 1907.

[Average price for 1890 to 1899-100.]

OCT DEC

The raw commodities reached the lowest average for these years in February, 1902, and the highest in June, 1907; manufactured commodities reached the lowest in January, 1902, and the highest in September, 1907. The average for raw commodities ranged from 16.2 per cent to 36.9 per cent above the base price, while the average for manufactured commodities ranged from 8.7 per cent to 30.3 per cent above the base price.

The course of prices of raw and manufactured commodities from 1902 to 1907 is shown in the graphic table on page 304.

No attempt has been made in any way to investigate the causes of the rise and fall of prices. The aim has been to give the prices as they actually prevailed in the market. The causes are too complex, the relative influence of each too uncertain, in some cases involving too many economie questions, to permit their discussion in connection with the present article. It will be sufficient to enumerate some of the influences that cause changes in prices. Such influences include variations in harvest, which not only restrict or increase the supply and consequently tend to increase or decrease the price of a commodity, but also restrict or increase, to a greater or less degree, the purchasing power of such communities as are dependent ́ in whole or in part upon such commodity; changes in demand due to changes in fashions, seasons, etc.; legislation altering internal-revenue taxes, import duties, or bounties; inspection as to purity or adulteration; use of other articles as substitutes-as, for instance, an advance in the price of beef will cause an increased consumption of pork and mutton and, it may be added, a probable increase in the price of both pork and mutton; improvements in methods of production which will tend either to give a better article for the same price or an equal article for a lower price; cheapening of transportation or handling; speculative manipulation of the supply or of the raw product; commercial panic or depression; overproduction; unusual demand owing to steady employment of consumers; short supply owing to disputes between labor and capital in industries of limited producing capacity, as in the anthracite coal industry in 1902; organization or combination of mills or producers, thus enabling, on the one hand, a greater or less control of prices or, on the other hand, economies in production or in transportation charges through the ability to supply the article from the point of production or manufacture nearest the purchaser. So far as individual commodities are concerned, no conclusion can safely be formed as to causes without an examination of the possible influence of several-in some cases, perhaps, all-of these For example, the various internal-revenue and tariff acts have, in a marked degree, no doubt affected the prices of proof spirits, of tobacco, and of sugar. But, on the other hand, they have not been

causes.