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REPORT

OF THE

DIRECTOR OF THE CENSUS

REPORT

OF THE

DIRECTOR OF THE CENSUS.

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE AND LABOR,

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS, Washington, December 31, 1911.

SIR: The fiscal year ended June 30, 1911, was the second of the three years which constitute the decennial census period as defined by law. Within this period of three years the organization and operations of the Census Bureau are governed in the main by the act providing for the Thirteenth and subsequent decennial censuses, passed July 2, 1909. The greater part of the work of the Bureau during the year has been in compiling the results of the Thirteenth Decennial Census, although the annual work required under the permanent census act and its amendments has been carried on as usual.

GENERAL PRogress of DECENNIAL CENSUS WORK.

The census act requires that the results of the census shall be published within the census period of three years, beginning July 1, 1909, and ending June 30, 1912. Had the deficiency appropriation of $1,000,000 requested by the Bureau of the Census been provided by Congress in December, 1911, it would have been possible to comply substantially with this requirement, at least to comply with it in as full a degree as was found possible at the Twelfth Census. That is to say, it would have been possible, by the expiration of the census period, to publish in pamphlet form the principal data as to every subject, and the full details as to most but not all subjects. This was all which was accomplished at the Twelfth Census. With one or two exceptions, the final bound volumes were not published during the census period, and the abstract of the census, which is the most important document from the standpoint of the great majority of readers, but which can not be published until data on every subject are available, was not published until several months after the expiration of the census period.

It had been hoped that, with the somewhat more efficient machines utilized at the present census, it would be possible to complete the work a little more promptly than was done at the Twelfth Census. For two reasons, however, this will prove impossible. In the first place, more time was spent at this census than at the last in verifying the correctness of the schedules before tabulating them. In particular, answers to the new inquiry regarding mother tongue required

very careful editing. This necessity was the greater by reason of the fact that the amendment to the census act requiring the question of mother tongue was enacted so late that it was impossible to provide a column on the population schedules to contain the question, and it was necessary by a makeshift device to instruct the enumerators to insert the required information in columns originally intended to show only country of birth or country of birth of parents. In the second place, very radical changes have seemed desirable in the methods of presenting the statistics in order that they may be made. as useful as possible to the public. While these changes have tended but little, if at all, to increase clerical labor, the devising of them has required much time on the part of the responsible officials and expert statisticians of the Census Bureau. It is believed that the changes thus made will be generally recognized as marked improvements. It is probable that the principles adopted will for the most part be permanently accepted for the future, and that few radical changes in methods of tabulation will be necessary at the next census, so that at that time the results should be available more promptly.

The officials of the Census Bureau recognize fully that the interest of many people in the statistics derived from the census steadily diminishes with the increase in the length of time intervening between collection and publication. Nevertheless, great promptness in the publication of the results of the decennial census is much less necessary than in the publication of the results of annual inquiries. The conditions which are reflected by the decennial census are mainly conditions which change with comparative slowness. It is far better that the statistics should be accurate and that they should be presented in such a way as to bring out their full and true significance than that they should be rushed out in imperfect form. The immense complexity of the processes involved in a thorough presentation of the statistics of a decennial census will always preclude the final publication of the entire results within less than two or three years after the enumeration. It is, however, desirable that the more important facts and those which require the least analysis should be presented within a much shorter time than two years. This object has been met to a considerable extent at the present census by the publication of bulletins, and still more by the publication of preliminary notices, which were primarily for the press, but were also available for such individuals as particularly require advance statistics. It is believed, however, that at another census arrangements can be made for a still prompter publication of at least preliminary figures on the more important topics. Such arrangements will involve some changes in methods of tabulation and will perhaps tend slightly to increase expense.

The original plans of the Bureau contemplated that the final and complete abstract of the census, with the several State supplements, should be issued in bound form very shortly after the completion of the present fiscal year, although most of the final volumes, containing the details of the entire census, would not have been available for some little time thereafter. Moreover, it was expected that there would remain to be performed during the fiscal year 1913 certain supplemental and special analyses of census statistics involving a considerable amount of office work, the results of which would have hardly been published much before July 1, 1913. The most important

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of these special analyses which were contemplated for the fiscal year 1913 had to do with population and included (1) analysis of occupation statistics, (2) characteristics of the foreign-born population classified by country of birth, and (3) statistics of fecundity. A limited amount of supplemental work was also planned in connection with decennial census statistics of agriculture and of manufactures and mines.

It was expected before June 30, 1912, to complete the first run of the population cards with reference to occupations, so as to show the number of persons employed in each occupation by sex, color, and native or foreign birth. It is highly desirable, however, that there should be a more detailed analysis relating to the principal occupations showing such facts as country of birth, marital condition, age, status as employer, employee, or working on own account, and the like. Under the general scheme of tabulation followed by the Census Bureau statistics of occupations are necessarily taken up last of all, and the second occupation run of the cards, from which these more detailed analyses are derived, could not possibly have been made and the results therefrom compiled during the census period. At the Twelfth Census also it was found impossible to publish these more detailed analyses regarding occupation statistics within the three-year census period.

At the Twelfth Census practically no information was published concerning the characteristics of the foreign-born population as classified by country of birth. The total number born in each foreign country was stated, and also the number and citizenship of adult males born in each. The great interest in the subject of immigration during recent years makes it of the highest importance to show, for the persons born in each of the leading countries from which our foreign-born population has been derived, such characteristics as age, sex, marital condition, illiteracy, and ability to speak English. The machine tabulation of these facts has already been made, but it was not expected within the census period to complete the tables and prepare a proper text analysis of them. The number born in each country can be published within the time fixed by law for the completion of the census.

As stated in the last annual report of this Bureau, the information derivable from the returns of the census of 1890 and 1900 with regard to fecundity of the population was never compiled and published, although considerable preliminary expenditure looking in that direction was incurred at the census of 1900. It would be of much value to the public if information on this subject could, during the fiscal year 1913, be compiled from the schedules of the census of 1910.

The additional analyses of agricultural, manufacturing, and mining statistics, which it was originally intended to make during 1913, were of a minor character, involving little cost.

The action of Congress in appropriating only $500,000 for the remainder of the Thirteenth Census period instead of $1,000,000 requested by the Census Bureau materially changes the conditions regarding the completion of the census work. In a broad way the probable effect will be, first, to necessitate deferring until the fiscal year 1913 work on a few subjects which should have been completed during the present fiscal year, and, second, on the assumption that no increase will be made in the appropriations for 1913 by reason of

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