VOL. LIX

No. 5

Europe Only a Year Ago

A year ago the arrogance of Germany, feeding upon military success, was at a high point, and there was little further attempt to disguise Teutonic war aims. The program had developed rapidly, and was supported almost unanimously. There will, perhaps, be a difference of opinion among conscientious historians regarding the motives that had prevailed in Germany when the war was launched in 1914. Obviously it was expected that England would keep out; that France would be overcome within a few weeks; that Russia's collapse would ensure the success of the Pan-German program as regards the Balkans and Turkey, and that indemnities would be exacted. But whatever the conscious and definite aims of the German people were in 1914, there is no doubt at all as to what those aims had become in the spring and early summer of last year. The German Empire was regarded as permanently extended, to include great portions of what had been Russian territory. Finland had been made a German vassal; there was no intention of giving up Antwerp; parts of France were to have been annexed; an immense colonial empire was to have been acquired in Asia and Africa; the British navy was to have been surrendered; and the United States was to have been compelled to pay an indemnity to Germany that would have made the war financially profitable for the nation that had ventured to force its leadership upon the world.

military leaders knew that the structure they had been building was about to collapse. There followed Germany's appeal to President Wilson for armistice terms; and what ensued is known to everybody. Although the course of events is so familiar, however, it is necessary to consider it all with one's reasoning faculties, in order that the daily news from Europe may not be too bewildering. The chief landmark to keep in view is the military victory-a supreme benefit the value of which will not be sacrificed. Germany came very near winning the war a year ago; and that would have been an appalling thing for Europe and also for America. The defeat of Germany filled us with joy and gratitude six months ago, and those sentiments were justified. We should not be so short-sighted as to permit minor difficulties and disturbances to darken the skies that were made clear by Germany's defeat, and by the end of the war, last November.

Victory the Outstanding Fact

Although after the tides of battle began to turn, with General Foch's successes in France, we were confident that Germany had lost the war, it was the general opinion that the fighting would go on until the summer of the present year. Our participation had been serious, and, relatively to the numbers of our men engaged and the length of the period of actual fighting, our losses were heavy. Nevertheless, they were small in the aggregate as compared with what they would have been if the finish of the war had come this year instead of last. Those who keep their heads and think carefully are not only thankful, then, that we were spared the calamity of a German victory, but that Germany's full defeat came in 1918 rather than in 1919. These are great outstanding facts that nothing can alter.

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"Liquidating," a Tedious Process

Again, everybody who had conceived of the war in its magni

tude and its intensity had known all along that it could not be "liquidated" easily, and that the settlements following it would involve much discussion and require the acceptance of compromises. It is natural enough that those who have been following closely the work of the Conference at Paris should at times have lost their sense of perspective, and should have been deeply anxious. When the results stand out and are visible as a series of things achieved, however, it is likely that praise will be far more general than blame. It was hardly possible to arrive at conclusions more rapidly, where so many nations were concerned. Every portion of the globe where there is organized human society is consciously affected by the work of the Peace Conference. We should not do justice to this gathering of the nations at Paris if we did not remember that for about five months it has been in essential fact a continuance of the coöperative work of the Allies, whose main purpose was to find deliverance from the menace of force and to establish not merely the theory but also the practice of justice as the rule among men.

Outlines of

The same principles which led the United States into the war Peace have made it necessary for this country to have a part in the adjustments following the war. The whole German nation had accepted the view a year ago that Germany was to have expansion and enrichment beyond all historical precedents by right of conquest and by power of extortion. We must keep in mind this German program, in order to do simple justice to the contrasting attitude of the victorious Allies in their efforts to fix the main outlines of reconstruction. The famous "Fourteen Points" of President Wilson had been either explicitly or virtually accepted by all of the Allies, months before the defeat of Germany, as expressing cardinal principles of world order and also as specifying some of the particular adjustments that would have to be made. When Germany asked for the terms of an armistice, it was upon the avowed basis of Allied principles as set forth by President Wilson. After five months of discussion the main outlines of Peace are confirmed, and the principal details have been written into a treaty with Germany. The outcome is better than there was reason to expect. The Allies have met all tests honorably.

Acceptance of American Principles

Earlier in the war period the Allies themselves had a different theory of the future, and were adjusting, by secret agreements among themselves, the nature and extent of the advantages they were expecting severally to obtain as a result of victory. But the breakdown of Russian Czardom and the swift rise of America's military power changed the whole theory of the world's political future. It was perfectly understood that American armies were not in Europe to help build up one set of empires at the expense of another set. The public opinion of Europe, hating war and distrusting the old-fashioned statesmen and diplomats who were trained to play the game of empire, was ready to accept American principles. The peoples everywhere were heartily tired of war and willing to follow any reasonable program for getting rid of militarism. Thus the American principles, as they had been set forth by President Wilson in speeches and addresses, were adopted as a fundamental platform, first by the Allies, and next by their chief opponents. To the future student of civilization, this achievement will stand out clearly as among the greatest of the ethical and political events of all the ages. The principles thus accepted included the protection of small nations in all their equality of rights; the abolition of those dangerous conspiracies which had grown up through secret diplomacy; the ending of those applications of science and industry to the growth of military power which had made Germany a menace; the organization of the world for the making of rules and regulations, the safety of the seas, and the orderly settlement of disputes.

Specific

Among the various adjustments Advance of a particular kind that the Agreement whole world had agreed upon in the armistice preliminaries was the rebuilding of Belgium and the full payment of France and Belgium for damages incurred. It was well understood that Alsace-Lorraine should be restored to France; that a re-united Poland should be established as an independent government at the expense of Germany and of the Austrian and Russian empires, with access to the sea at Danzig. It was understood in like manner that Bohemia should become an independent country and that there should be suitable rearrangements of territory for the benefit of Rumania, Serbia and Greece. No one who had given even small attention to the details of the questions

involved could have expected these territorial adjustments to be worked out in a few weeks with cheerful acquiescence on all sides. The important thing to remember is that, in the moment of their overwhelming victory, the Allies adopted ordinances of selfdenial, and repudiated the principles of conquest that Germany had set up for herself.

Considerate Conquerors

Since so many things have been asserted from day to day regarding the aims and methods of one or another of the Allies in the discussions at Paris, it is well to have in mind the main facts, and not to be misled by the details. In the first place, then, Germany has not been in danger of being trodden under the feet of her conquerors. Only a short time ago Germany was in military and political control of Belgium, a considerable part of France, immense portions of what had been Russia, and so on. This German occupation was oppressive to the last degree, and in defiance of international law and of all recognized usage. The Allies on their part have not been and are not now oppressively occupying Germany. The Allied armies are helping to keep good order, and are not interfering with essential rights. In these times of turmoil, the occupied parts of Germany are happier and safer than the unoccupied parts. Secondly, Germany is losing no territory that properly belongs to her or that is occupied by a population which resents proposed changes. That Alsace-Lorraine should go to France, and Posen to Poland, and that a part of North Schleswig should return to Denmark, was inevitable.

lowed to build up a military machine intended to unsettle any of the just verdicts that are resulting from the war. For example, Germany agreed in her application for an armistice to make the necessary payments for damages inflicted, especially upon Belgium and France, but also upon British and other shipping. The final peace terms will have prescribed the methods and amounts. It will be necessary for Germany to show good faith in living up to these requirements. It will not be a light burden for her to bear, but, on the other hand, nothing that she can do by way of reparation will ever amount to much in comparison with the damage she has inflicted. There is not

the slightest reason, therefore, to fear that Germany is to be oppressed or mistreated in war settlements, now practically completed.

France Entitled to Security

What, then, about the French attitude which we have seen some disposition to criticize? As a result of the stupendous war effort of France, the Republic has been greatly weakened. More than any other of the larger countries engaged, France will feel the loss of her young men who have been slain; and her industrial and financial recovery will be difficult. The French see clearly that Germany's domestic war debt represents. futile effort made by her own people, and that it can be paid through some form of financing that will mask what is really repudiation and that will allow Germany to make a new start. There has, indeed, swept across Germany a wave of dismay and disheartenment that seems to have deranged all forms of organized life; but the French know very well. how deeply rooted are the German habits of industry and civil order, and how superior is Germany's capacity for economic success and commercial conquest. France wishes to be protected against the danger of too rapid a

recovery of Germany's prosperity and power. This is a wholly natural feeling in France, and it could not have been otherwise in view of the facts of the past five years. Mr. Lloyd George's assurance to France as expressed recently, in an interview given to Mr. Stephen Lausanne of the Matin, was not merely the language of a suave politician seeking momentary applause at Paris.

France is entitled to all that can be obtained by way of settlement, and she is further entitled to be told that the settlement, as agreed upon, will be supported. Great Britain, as the immediate neighbor of France, is best fitted to give assurances of direct and immediate military aid in case of need. The United States would naturally support the British Empire in any crisis arising by reason of an unjust attack of Germany upon France. The precise forms of military security along the Rhine, and of financial reparation, have been under keen debate, but with assurance of just conclusions and of unbroken cordiality between France and America.

The New Europe

It is plain, then, that the larger

outlines of the peace agreement Emerging were already fixed in the terms of the armistice, and have not been under discussion. If we had fought for another year, the course of proceedings in the making of peace would doubtless have been different; but all of the powers really involved in the fighting, great and small, have good reason to be thankful that bloodshed was ended earlier rather than later. The wreckage and the exhaustion caused by the war were so terrible in extent and degree that another year of the struggle would have rendered recovery a far more hopeless process. The war was brought to an end through the internal conditions of Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary. Racial discords within the Empire paralyzed the military strength of the Hapsburgs; and the Italian victory, followed by Austria's acceptance of armistice terms, exposed Germany to attack on the Bavarian flank. The Italian armies had obtained free right-of-way and the use of Austrian railroads; so that, with the friendly help of the Bohemians, the Allies could have been bombarding Munich within a few days. Even as the war was going on, Central Europe was recrystallizing itself along national lines, and Teutonic defeat was proceeding at once from within and from without. In this process of defeat, the outlines of new sovereignties were clearly emerging.

Armistice Basis Confirmed

With the signing of the armistice in November it was admitted on all hands that there should be an independent Poland with due symmetry and strength; a Bohemian Republic expanded by the annexation of the Slovak provinces; a union of the Serbian-speaking territories under a South-Slav government; an enlargement of Rumania by the addition of Transylvania and several kindred districts; and a number of other reasonably definite developments. The general outlines of peace adjustments, as they appeared last November, have not only survived the critical discussion of the past six months, but have been confirmed and strengthened. The disputes of March and April were to a great extent the hopeful indications of virility, rather than the querulous demands of broken and despairing peoples. "New Europe" shows life.

Poland on the

Map

The case of Poland well illustrates this view. The Poles had suffered frightfully from the war, and, like the rest of Europe, have found no magic formula which supplies ample food and restores a normal economic life. But Polish independence, which looked so dubious ten months ago, is an accomplished fact in Europe that no human being disputes. Nor is there anyone who could be so bold as to predict the future subjugation of Poland, or the historical repetition of its parceling

What Germany, Russia, Austria and Hungary now surrender to the Polish State they do not hope to recover at any future time. Quickly accepting the major fact of her resurrection, Poland asserts herself with all the hopeful energy she has recovered. She is aroused in order to lose no possible acre of territory; to secure boundaries as favorable and "scientific" as possible; and to obtain her promised access to the sea in the form that will best suit her traditional pride as well as serve her commercial purposes.

access to its own port on the Baltic. Yet this is one of the many things of tremendous consequence that are working their way to completion through the great mechanism of the Peace Conference at Paris. Never before in all history has the process of statemaking been going forward upon plans and principles so worthy of approval. Those who have been in danger-by reason of alarming newspaper headlines of losing their sense of proportion, should neglect the daily news for a few days and read history. They may learn that startling controversies. over details in matters of negotiation have very frequently indicated that full agreement is already reached upon main issues, and that the final settlement is near at hand.

Setting Up the South

Take for another instance the most stubborn of all the bound

Slavs ary disputes-that between the Italians and the South Slavs relating to the Adriatic coast. The trembling hope of Serbia for many years had been an ultimate union with Bosnia and Herzgovina. When Austria, after having occupied and governed Bosnia for almost forty years, proclaimed formal annexation in 1908 with the acquiescence of all the great powers, the sun of Serbia's hopes sank far below the horizon of things expected by practical men. Yet today Serbia, with the full consent of all Europe, is united with Bosnia and still further is federated with Croatia and other adjacent Serbian-speaking provinces that were formerly a part of Hungary. Still further, there is to be ample access to the sea for this expanded Serbian country known as JugoSlavia, and there will soon be seen for the first time in hundreds of years the Serbian flag floating on the high seas, and Serbian vessels lying at anchor in their own seaports.

Thus Europe is now benevolently providing for a Serbian future that is to be incomparably greater than any Serbian statesman had until very recently regarded as within the range of probable events.

Adriatic Outlets

Why, then, have we been hearing so much about the desperate quarrel between the Italians and the Jugo-Slavs over the disposition of the town and port of Fiume? The very fact of the tenacity of both sides and their intense earnestness about the matter has indicated two things, both of them auspicious. First, it has indicated vigor, hopefulness and rightful aspiration on both sides. Second, and most important, it has indicated the knowledge on both sides that whatever solution was arrived at by the Conference at Paris would have to be accepted in good faith as final. Italians and Jugo-Slavs alike are making gains at the expense of the former Hapsburg dominions. Far more than the Jugo-Slavs had originally expected is already assured to them. The Italians, when they entered the war, had been engaged in secret negotiations with the Allies for some time, and they were given assurance of support in territorial claims which circumstances have compelled them to modify. Italy desired security in the Adriatic, and is entitled to have it. The League of Nations will support Italy, just as it will support France, in the maintenance of settlements now agreed upon. Both Italy and France will be doubly secure, however, if the settlements of 1919 are those which, looking to the future, will prove to have what one may term stable equilibrium. Italy should have naval control of the Adriatic, but all the peoples to the eastward, Hungarians as well as Slavs, should enjoy unembarrassed commercial access.