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ANNUAL REGISTER,

For the YEAR 1770.

THE

HISTORY

O F

EUROPE.

CHAP. I.

State of the Belligerent Powers. Ruffia. Conduct of the Neutral Powers. Probable confequences of the war. Turky. Firmness of the Grand Signior. Probability of a Peace. Spain. Falkland's Islands. Great Britain. Portugal.

T

HE great fucceffes of the Ruffians in the two laft campaigns, though flattering and brilliant, have not been productive of thofe immediate advantages, which would have attended conquefts of the fame nature in other parts of the world. The fertile and extenfive provinces between the Danube and the Niefter, if they had been fituated in the cultivated parts of Europe or Afia, and fubject only to the well-regulated rapine of a difciplined army under an VOL. XIII.

able general, would in themselves have nearly provided for the fupe port of the war.

In the prefent inftance, the conquered countries are in fo ruined a ftate, that instead of contributing to defray the expences of the war, they cannot fupply the common articles of fubfiftence; and forage is the principal, if not the only aid, which they can afford to their des fenders or affailants.

The Ruffians will, however, derive great advantages in the future [4] opera

operations of the war from this acceflion of territory; and being in poffeffion of all the fortreffes, and the Turks driven totally beyond the Danube, this ftate of fecurity, as well as that arifing from the fubmiffion of the Budziac Tartars, will encourage the remaining natives to cultivate their lands and rebuild their houses, and the fugitives to return to their country. Nor will the Turks find it eafy now to renew the war on this fide of the Danube; an attempt, in which they will experience many of the fame difficulties, which we had formerly fhewn would attend the progrefs of the Ruffians, if they were to extend their operations into Bulgaria. In either cafe the river will be found a very important barrier.

Though the Tartars of the Crim and Little Tartary, as well as thofe of Oczacow, have hitherto continued firm in their attachment to the Porte, and have defpifed all the of fers as well as threats, which have been used to detach them from it; yet it can fcarcely be conceived by the prefent appearance of affairs, that without the intervention of fome other power, or fome extraordinary and unexpected good fortune on the fide of the Turks, they can be able to withstand the power of Rullia for another campaign. The Turkish operations on the Danube can be confidered as little more than a diverfion in their favour, and in the prefent wretched ftate of their marine, the fupport by the Black Sea must be weak and uncertain. Nor is any extraordinary defence to be expected from the fortrefs of Oczacow; fingle and expofed as it is, without fupport, and the dreadful fate of Bender before its eyes.

While the Ruffians triumph upon

the Danube and the Niefter; by their expedition to the Mediterranean, they feem to have enclofed all Europe, from the bottom of the Baltic, to the Streights of the Dardanelles, within the line of their hoftility. Extraordinary events are feldom brought about, without a fingular concurrence of circumftances to facilitate their execution; and it may perhaps be found, that most of the great revolutions which have taken place in the hiftory of mankind, would have failed, if they had been attempted at any other time than that precife æra, which feemed calculated for their completion, and to have removed or fmoothed every obftacle to their fuccefs. This expedition is one of thofe remarkable events which could have as little taken place, as the attempt could have been believed or foreseen, at any period of time prior to the prefent.

It had become the policy of the great European commercial powers, long before Ruffia was miftrefs of a fhip, to fuffer no new maritime ftate to fpring up amongst them; nor did the antiquity of the republic of Genoa protect her from the jealoufy of Lewis the Fourteenth, when of who had before afpired to be a rival for the commerce of the world, was reftrained from building fhips in her own docks; and even reftricted as to the poffeffion of more than a fpecified number. Arbitrary precedents of the fame nature were not unknown in antiquity; and it is no wonder that the modern European ftates, whofe avidity for commerce, as foon as they had tafted her fweets, was beyond all former example, and involved them in continual wars among themfelves for the share they should

poffefs

poffefs in her favour, fhould eagerly convert fuch precedents to their own advantage, and behold every new rival for it with the extremeft jealoufy.

Peter the Great's efforts to create failors and a navy, were beheld with admiration as a novelty, and as the extraordinary attempts of an extraordinary man. His great fhips and his land admirals were amufing to himself and to others in the Baltic, and deftructive to Sweden in the declining state of that kingdom. Such a naval force as could be formed in fuch a fea, and locked up within it, was of little confequence to the great commercial states; and it was the ftrict policy of thefe, as well as of later times, that it should be confined to those limits.

The particularjealoufywith which the Mediterranean powers have at all times regarded every intrufion on that fea, which being furrounded by their dominions, they seem in some measure to confider as their peculiar property, would in any other circumftances of public affairs, have proved an infuperable bar to this enterprize. Nor is this attempt more repugnant to the principles adopted by the commercial ftates, than it is to the general political fyftem of Europe, which has been fo long and fo eagerly pursued, and which to preserve a due equilibrium is totally averfe to the making of great conquefts, or to the formation of a new dominion. To all thefe ftanding impediments to an attempt of this nature, may be added, the general dread entertained of the over-grown power of Ruffia, and a conviction of the confequences that have already enfued from that fupreme afcendant which she has acquired, and which the fo ar

bitrarily displays in all the affairs of the north.

Such, however, are the peculiar circumftances of the prefent times, and fuch the extraordinary fortune of the Emprefs Catherine, that with a very moderate naval force, ill found and ill provided, and manned with raw and unexperienced failors, he has fent fire and fword into the fhores of Greece, and the ifles of the Archipelago.

Great Britain, indeed, beheld without uneafinefs, the aggrandizement of a power, in whofe alliance fhe is to look for a balance to the family compact. France does not chufe to interfere in a quarrel which might bring into the Mediterranean an English, to the aid of a Ruffian fleet. The diftrefs which the Levant trade fuffers, is more felt by France than by Great Britain; and Great Britain profits more by the profperity of the Ruffian arms and empire, than fhe fuffers by a temporary fufpenfion of her commerce in that part of the world, where our dealings are not near fo extenfive as thofe of France. If the progrefs of the Ruffian arms fhould meet any check, it must be owing to the intervention of Pruffia and Austria; neither of which powers can fee, without a rational alarm, Ruffia becoming the mistress of Poland, and the total deftroyer of the Turkish empire; out of whofe ruins fomething truly formidable might arife in time.

This Mediterranean expedition has however, hitherto, answered more the purpose of damage to the enemy, than of direct benefit to Ruffia. The paffage of the Dardanelles has not been made good, nor does there feem any great probability, as it was not effected during the firft furprize and confufion, that it fhould

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fucceed, after the Turks have had fo long a time, under the conduct of able engineers, to prepare for its defence. Neither have the Ruffians been able to poffefs themselves of an ifland or port in the Archipelago, of any confequence, during the whole fummer. This expedition, however, contributed to embarrass and diftract the councils of the Porte, to keep back fome of their beft troops and officers from the Danube, and by cutting off the fupply of provifions by fea, to increase the tumults and diforder at Conftantinople. It is also probable that it encouraged, in a confiderable degree, the rebellion that has broken out in Egypt.

None of these confequences, except the destruction of the Turkish fleet, feem equivalent to the vaft expences that have attended it, and which at present are ill adapted to the state of the Ruffian finances. It may alfo perhaps be doubted, whether they have not been counterbalanced by the ruin and flaughter of the Greeks, who feem by fome fatality, to be devoted to inevitable deftruction, wherever the Ruffians appear in their favour.

This confequence was however to have been expected, from the exceffive ignorance of the Greeks, and the inability of the Ruffians to fupport them with effect. It does not indeed appear to have been good policy in Ruffia, to have made fo fatal and ufelefs a trial of the difpofition of these unhappy people. It was natural enough that they fhould wish for a deliverance from their oppreffors, and that, vain of their antient national glory, they fhould think themselves poffeffed of the virtue of their ancestors: their ignorance of geography, of the state

of Europe, and even of the ability of Ruffia to affift them, would fufficiently account for any act of madnefs that they were capable of cornmitting. The Ruffians are, however, too well informed to imagine that a people immerfed in a corruption of two thousand years, broken by long flavery, and funk thro' every ftate of degradation; whose depravity, and total infenfibility of condition, were become proverbial, and whofe imaginary bravery only depended upon their having never feen the face of an enemy, should all at once do more than inherit the valour of their ancestors, and without difcipline or knowledge of any thing martial, not only encounter regular forces, but fubdue those conquerors to whom they had basely fubmitted when they were yet a people, and the remains of a great empire. It would feem that this trial fhould at least have been referved for a better opportunity; when they could have landed a fufficient body of forces to have kept the field independently of the Greeks, whom they were to confider only as feeble auxiliaries, but willing fubjects.

Upon the whole, this war has placed the military character of Ruffia in a very high point of view. And while their armies have gained the greatest honours in the field, their failors have learned to traverse new feas, and to navigate and fight under the direction of English officers. An admiral of our nation of high note, and of fuperior knowledge in all the parts of his profeffion, has gone lately into their fervice; and there is little room to doubt under his tuition, and from his acknowledged judgment in the conftruction of fhips, but their ma

rine will foon make a very refpectable figure.

In other refpects there is no doubt but Ruffia will obtain the most folid advantages, in confequence of her fuccefs in this war; among which the establishment of fuch a barrier, as will fecure her whole European frontier from the future infults of the Tartars, may be confidered as an object of great importance: as befides their depopulating and preventing the cultivation of her fineft provinces, fhe was at the expence of employing 50,000 men in peace and war, in guarding the lines upon that long extent of frontier. It is alfo little to be doubted in the prefent circumstances, that the court of Petersburg will gain the grand and favourite point which has been fo long and fo eagerly coveted, of establishing a port, or perhaps more than one, upon the Black Sea; and it is as probable that it will urge, to the utmost extent, the obtaining a liberty to trade upon it in Ruffian

bottoms.

The renewing of the fortifications of Azoph, which were destroyed in pursuance of the treaty of the year 1739; or even the restoring of the port of Troitza, or the Trinity, would not answer all the purpofes, nor at prefent gratify the ambition of the court of Petersburg. This city, which is the metropolis of the Cuban Tartary, lies on the Afiatic fhore of the antient Tanais, now called the Don, a few miles from its junction with the eastern extremity of the Palus Meotis, which now takes its name from the city. Though the harbour of Azoph was capable of receiving veffels of confiderable fize, yet from fome fhoals that croffed the river near the mouth, thofe of a certain burthen could not

fall down to the fea, without taking out their heavy loading and guns. For this reafon, the Ruffians built the port of Troitza, a few miles lower down, but immediately on the fea, where they had a good harbour, capable of building and receiving fhips of any burthen. The Streights of Caffa are the only navigable communication between the Black Sea and this of Azoph; and as the Turks are mafters on both fides, by erecting proper fortifications at Jenicola in Crim Tartary, and on the oppofite fhore of the island of Taman, which form the Streight, they might command the navigation of it. Notwithstanding these impediments, Azoph has always been confidered as a place of the greatest importance to Ruffia, and was accordingly the firft object that attracted the ambition of Peter the Great; who, as foon as he found himself fole mafter by the death of his brother, and that the Turks were engaged in a lofing war with the Emperor and Venice, took that opportunity in the year 1696, to befiege and take it. The bad state of the Turkish affairs, together with his being included as an ally by the other hoftile powers, obliged them to cede it to him by the treaty of Carlowitz; and nothing but the imminent danger in which both he and his army were involved many years after upon the banks of the Pruth, could have obliged him to reftore it.

Ports that lie immediately on the Black Sea, are the leaft that it can be expected will now content Ruffia; and thofe of Oczacow and Kimburn, fituated on either fide of the mouth of the great river Boryfthenes or Nieper, are ready to drop into their hands. Thefe fortreffes, together with Ben

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