Exports are of course dependent upon transportation facilities, and as these facilities readily increase, exports will increase correspondingly, because the abundance of oil in Mexico seems practically unlimited. This becomes evident from the fact that, not to speak of any other oilfields the English Pearson interests, whose main oil sources are situated in the State of Vera Cruz and on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec-exclusive of 63 other still unoperated wells can develop annually, through their flowing wells, an output exceeding one hundred million barrels, that is to say, nearly half of the annual production of the United States. But this possible output and the capacity of the unoperated English Syndicate's wells is at present held under pressure until after transportation facilities have been fully developed.

In these facilities we include the pipe-lines already referred to; it is clear, therefore, that a Mexican oil king can dispense with ships for the transportation of oil, if—which is quite feasible-he connects his wells by pipe-lines with the Panama Canal itself or with a Central American harbor in the neighborhood of that waterway. But even this is not absolutely necessary, for he has the advantage over North American oil by reason both of his nearness to the Canal and of cheaper transportation.

For these reasons, the English firm above referred to, which has recently adopted the name Mexican Standard Oil Company, does not only systematically perfect its net of ducts, but is now engaged in doubling its line of tank-steamers, which numbers already twenty ships of 10,000 tons each.

According to the reports of geologists, Mexico may within a few years advance to the first position as a petroleum-producing country; this explains why it is that England and the United States have for some years in consideration of the Panama Canal-been contending with each other to secure oil concessions, a fact which is set into strong light by the proportionate investments. Mexican oil interests amount to $175,000,000; England participates in these investments to the extent of $75,000,000; the United States $97,500,000 and Mexico $2,500,000. Whenever geologists trace new oil, concession seekers appear, and the energetic Lord Cowdray, owner of the Pearson firm, so closely connected with the British Admiralty, is always on the spot.

The same conditions apply to Colombia 3 and to Ecuador, where the English seem to have gotten in ahead of the Americans, as well as to Venezuela and Trinidad where, however, their positions are reversed. In short, petroleum, which seemed to be a gift of the gods to the economically weak Latin republics of Central America and of the neighboring countries of South America, has, on account of the Panama Canal, become the bone of contention of the great Powers, which circumstance alone would justify us in speaking of a "Central American Question."

It possesses the elements of serious complications in which, for reasons pointed out elsewhere, Japan may have a hand. The way in which Japan has allowed the recent Californian question to drag calls to mind the old proverb "Forbearance is no acquittance"; and it is quite possible that American intervention in Mexico may in due course of time offer Japan the opportunity that may seem propitious to her for suddenly taking a defiant attitude on that question, which might lead to immeasurable

consequences.

Time and space do not permit us to consider carefully the resulting possibilities in the field of world politics. Reference to them should suffice to give the reader an idea of a situation which becomes even clearer by adapting its elements to European conditions.

Let us suppose that, all other conditions being the same, the Kiel Canal were the Panama Canal, and an insurgent Holstein, rich in oil fields, stood for Mexico, Germany for the United States, Russia for Japan, England for England, and an anti-German Scandinavia for Latin America, which is more or less hostile to the United States. The comparison limps, as all comparisons do; but on a smaller scale it shows the difficulties with which the United States is beset, if in future it does not perfect its position as a world Power; or if it does not renounce the Monroe Doctrine; or if, inadequately prepared for action, it permits of its being kept constantly on the defensive.

The well-known disagreement between Great Britain and the United States on account of the interpretation of the Hay-Pauncefote Treaty, in the matter of canal tolls, forms another perplexing circumstance; and the

According to newspaper reports, the English concessionaires, Lord Cowdray of the firm of Pearson & Sons, and Lord Murray of Elibank, withdrew from Colombia about the end of November last. Authoritative confirmation of this news is lacking.

further fact that England is still the ally of Japan cannot well have a comforting effect upon the American mind.

But at the present moment, the pregnant side of the question is Mexico, where, according to the readily understood wishes of the Americans, a government, amenable to these wishes, must be set up, that shall put a limit, among other things, to the European, hitherto only English, thirst for oil. Rent by rebellions for the last three years, that unhappy country is in immediate need of peace; and this can be accomplished only through a man, after the pattern and possessing the qualities of Porfirio Diaz. If such a man-like Huerta, who has publicly expressed himself in favor of an understanding with Japan and England does not submit to the will of the United States, they will oppose him with all means at their command; if, on the other hand, he complies with their wishes, he will constantly be fought from within Mexico itself, which is hostile to the Union. It seems, therefore, that soon there will be nothing left for the United States to do, except to step in and restore peace in its own way; and as in the case of Cuba, to take temporarily the reins of the government into its own hands. But in view of the friction existing between England, Japan and Latin America on the one hand, and the United States on the other, it can readily be seen that such a decision would not be without its difficulties.

On the other hand, it is quite evident that sooner or later Europe will feel the retroactive force of the Central American Question. The relations between Germany and England are indirectly affected by this question. As long as England looks with distrust upon the increasing strength of the German fleet, it restricts its freedom of action and will not be in a position to secure the complete results of the policy it has pursued hitherto. The well-known maxim "Divide et impera," which has been the immemorial and successful watchword of British diplomacy, was applicable to Europe. But the world, which has in a way been united through the Panama Canal, is no longer an available field for the application of that outworn policy.

From the day of the declaration of the independence of the United

'See Fortnightly Review, Nov. 1913, p. 857: "One of these days England and Japan and Mexico will go together and after that there will be an end to the United States."

States, America began to shape a world of its own, whose favorable geographical situation made it possible for the Union to remain for nearly a century a disinterested spectator of events that took place in the east and the west. In accordance with this situation, George Washington in his time announced the fundamental principle of not entering into any entangling alliances, and in 1823, President Monroe proclaimed his doctrine 5 as the "noli me tangere" of the young republic, aspiring to leadership on its continent.

But the ever increasing and improving means of communication have brought America into closer economic and cultural relations with the old world; in consequence, it may be said, that with the opening of the Panama Canal, practically the West and the East will clash on the Great Ocean!

The Atlantic Ocean has been the scene of battles and rivalries between nations. The Great Ocean which is now coming to the front is likely to become to a far greater extent the scene of action for the struggle of races, a fact that may have been foreseen by Senator W. H. Seward when he said as long ago as 1852: "The Pacific Ocean, its shores, its islands and the vast regions beyond will become the chief theater of events in the world's great Hereafter." The Central American Question," and, above all, the way in which it is to be settled, may consequently prove of the utmost importance for the shaping of all the historical events of the present century, especially if, with reference to the Panama Canal, it is considered as the starting point of a new epoch.

It has been the object of this article to demonstrate the soundness of this view; and for the reasons stated, the writer believes that the time is near when in their political speculations, all Teutonic nations must look upon the world as a whole, and, in accordance with the probable development of things in general, they must begin to think in races and continents.

Nearly two decades ago, the German Emperor uttered words that cannot be forgotten, calling upon the western nations to preserve their most sacred possessions; and each new day the prophetic significance of that utterance becomes clearer. Therefore, all reasonable people should

'Reinforced by the Lodge Resolution of 1912, and by the address of President Wilson, delivered in October 1913, at Mobile, Ala.