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APRIL 3, 1918

HARVARD COLLEG

APR 24 1918

Offices, 381 Fourth Avenue, New YoRAR`

On account of the war and the consequent delays in the mails, both in New York City and on the railways, this copy of The Outlook may reach the subscriber late. The publishers are doing everything in their power to facilitate deliveries

THE GREAT GERMAN OFFENSIVE

For five days, from March 21 to March 26, a continued assault was made by enormous German forces on that part of the British line which lies between the Oise River to the south and the Somme River to the north and beyond the Somme River northward to a point a few miles above Bapaume. In the number of the attacking forces, which has been put as high as a million, in the weight of guns, and in the dense massing of guns and men on given points regardless of loss, the offensive was astounding. The total result at the end of these five days was, not a British disaster, but a British retirement. The ground thus retaken by the Germans stretches from north to south for nearly fifty miles, and its greatest depth is nearly fifteen miles. The Germans have occupied the towns of Bapaume, Combles, Péronne, Ham, Chauny, Noyon, and many smaller places. Whether the offensive reached its culmination at the end of these five days' fighting and the line running through the towns just named is the limit of the German advance, or whether the Germans may go farther and gain Albert and Arras, or even possibly reach still farther west and occupy Amiens, will probably appear before these lines are read. The map adjoining will show the reader the position of the lines on March 26.

All the ground fought over in this offensive was occupied by the German forces before the great British advance a year ago this spring. It is hardly a year since we were all rejoicing that the British had taken Bapaume and the French Péronne. Even before those events took place the Allies had no feeling of despondency whatever, and now that the line in this section has swayed back again a few miles to its former position there is no more reason (so far as the relative position of the opposing lines is concerned) to feel despondency than there was then.

During these five days the British line was not broken, it was only bent back. It is one thing to penetrate lines of trenches, it is another thing to drive a hole through the main defense. In other words, this offensive compares more closely with that waged by the French in the Champagne sector at the time when the French took 25,000 prisoners and drove the Germans back over a wide stretch, than with last year's disaster in Italy, where for a time General Cadorna's divisions were separated and outflanked, so that a retreat which might almost be called a rout followed, with the loss of enormous numbers of and guns munitions and the surrender of a large sector of Italy; or, again, the present offensive up to March 26 is more like the British advance and German retreat through precisely this same territory than it is like Mackensen's break through the Russian line at the Dunajec, or Mackensen's utter defeat of the Rumanian armies. The general rule with the great offensives in this war on both sides has been that their force has necessarily worn down after a few days because of the difficulty of bringing new men and new munitions into action.

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lost by the defending army; on the other hand, the loss of the attacking army in killed and wounded is likely to be the larger. In the present battle, for instance, the Germans claimed up to March 26 to have taken some 45,000 prisoners and 600 guns, while British reports put the enemy's loss in killed and wounded as high as 200,000. Barring the improbable case of a smash through on a large scale by the Germans, the real extent of the injury is to be judged, not by the amount of territory lost and gained, but by the number of killed, wounded, and prisoners and the number of guns lost respectively by the two

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THE NATURE OF THE ATTACK

In all such offensives the attacking party has a certain advantage because the party attacked is never quite sure until the last minute whether the threatened offensive is a diversion, or perhaps one of two or three simultaneous offensives, or whether it is really an attempt to drive through at the point threatened. The defending forces, therefore, must not too soon be concentrated at one point. It is in the nature of a fierce attack on a large scale also that the larger number of prisoners should be

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The map in its shaded area shows the advance of the German arm, up to March 26. On the evening of that day news came that Noyon had been evacuated. The black line indicates the position of the Allies on March 21, when the offensive began; the broken line on the west, the Allies' positions before the German retiral a year ago

contending armies. At this date it is impossible to speak definitely as to that loss.

The brunt of the fighting during the period here described fell with terrific force on the British armies. Gradually the French have been drawn into action as the German advance stretched toward the south. German reports that American troops were engaged appear to have their only basis in the fact that two regiments of American railway engineers had been working with the British forces on the line attacked, and, just as they did in the battle of Cambrai last November, they bravely dropped their tools and took up their rifles to do their part in the fighting. All accounts indicate that the British in their retreat inflicted tremendous losses upon the enemy, and that there was nothing like a rout or a panic. General Haig declares that everywhere the retirement was conducted in good order. The British Prime Minister, in a message to General Haig, wrote: "The British Cabinet wishes to express to the army the nation's thanks for its splendid defense. The whole Empire is filled with pride as it watches the heroic resistance offered by its brave troops to overwhelming odds."

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The English press shows no sign of trepidation, but a spirit of courage and resolution. One paper, the "Chronicle,” even says: Assuming that the German losses are at least one hundred and fifty thousand, the enemy has sustained a reverse, for he has not obtained a strategical success directly conducing to a decision, while he has lost eight or ten per cent of his effectives without similarly lowering the efficiency of the Allies." A British officer now in this country, Colonel Dunmore, offers this comment:

If you are willing to sacrifice enough men and material, you can always take any given area. . . . But the thing that counts is the ability to follow up, consolidating the new positions with the old lines and translating the advance into real victory. . . . I feel justified in saying that the fearful price in man power the Germans are paying for this punch will serve only to hasten the end of the war and victory for the Allies.

Elsewhere in this issue will be found editorial discussion of the meaning of the great offensive to the Allies, and, in particular, to Americans.

THE PARIS MYSTERY

How much of myth and how much of reality are mingled in the reports of the long-range bombardment of Paris is still in doubt as we write. It is certain, however, that nine-inch shells, not bombs, have fallen in considerable numbers in and about Paris. Twenty-four such shells are said to have struck Paris on Saturday, March 23, and twenty-seven on Sunday, while a smaller number fell on Monday. The first flight of these missiles resulted in ten deaths, but later attacks seem to have done little damage. The bursting force of the shells is said to be small compared with ordinary artillery work with missiles of this caliber.

There are at least half a dozen theories as to this bombardment. Technical experts and inventive minds have been fertile in explanations. If the missiles were shot from a gun on land, it must have been over sixty miles from Paris, unless, which is extremely improbable, it is concealed somewhere within the French lines. Experts say that a gun capable of hurling a shell from sixty to seventy miles through the air must be one hundred and fifty feet long, and that the shell would start with a muzzle velocity of over five thousand feet a second and attain a height of thirty-five miles. But some experts believe that a gun could have a special chamber of greater diameter than its main bore, so that the expulsive force in proportion to the diameter of the shell might be multiplied. Still others think that the shell itself might have a series of charges to be exploded at intervals based on the increased resistance of the air. Other experts believe in the possible existence of an aerial torpedo, or a torpedo that could be discharged from a Zeppelin, or possibly from an airplane, at a great height from miles away. Still others talk mysteriously of an electro-magnetic weapon which could fire shells to an enormous distance. Finally, many military experts incline to complete skepticism as to the suggested ranges of sixty or seventy miles.

The military effect of this bombardment of Paris has not

been great, and, even assuming that Germany has a new and extraordinary weapon, it does not appear probable that it will have a serious effect on the war in its larger aspects.

THE DUTCH SHIPS

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The President's proclamation, by which the Dutch ships now in this country were taken over for use by our ment, was perfectly sound in its international law when it stated that the act was "in exercise of our indisputable rights and in accordance with the law and practice of nations." It is natural, perhaps, that political leaders in Holland should protest in order to still popular outcry. The real cause of indignation in Holland is the failure of her statesmen to assert Holland's rights to enter into an amicable agreement with the United States, such as would undoubtedly have been to the benefit of Holland. They failed to do this simply because they were, to quote President Wilson again, "under the menace of a Power which has demonstrated its disdain of neutral rights." It is an old adage in criminal law that the attorney who has no case abuses his oppo nent. So, when we read that the Dutch editors and politicians talk of "an act of robbery," of "holding a pistol at our head," and the like, we rightly infer that they find abuse easier than argument. In point of fact, the right to do what our Government has done in this case is thoroughly well established and has been exercised by many nations in many instances.

Dutch ships have been idle in American and English ports for many weeks. We must use our wheat in a certain order of precedence-first, our own consumers; second, our allies in the war; third, neutral nations. We offered to send Holland wheat and other supplies so far as the other demands upon us permit; but in return for this we asked Holland to arrange her shipping methods so as to permit us to fulfill our most pressing National duties of transportation. She has refused, simply and solely because she fears Germany. We have now arranged the matter ourselves, lawfully and properly. The needs of Holland and of another neutral nation, Switzerland, will be looked after hu manely and carefully. The financial interests of the owners of the ships will be conserved. In short, Holland is better off since the taking over of the ships than she was before.

The vessels which have passed into the temporary control of our Government represent a total tonnage of 470,000, while at the same time Great Britain has taken control of ships in British waters with 400,000 tonnage. It is not proposed to use these ships directly for military purposes such as the transport of troops; but they may relieve other vessels for this work, and it is in this sense that the President is right in saying that imperative military needs of the United States dictated the arrangement.

GENERAL WOOD'S VIEW OF
AMERICAN PREPAREDNESS

Major-General Leonard Wood has returned to this country after having been wounded by the premature explosion of a shell during his tour of inspection of the western front in France. Last week he was summoned before the Senate Committee on Military Affairs, and, under examination, gave view of the American situation in the war. We reprint from the New York "Tribune" the following summary of his opinions :

1. France is eager for America to send men-and more men to Europe. The French are disappointed at the extent to which this Nation has got into the war. They had not believed the unpreparedness of this country as bad as it turned out to be.

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2. Airplanes must be supplied to the American forces. There are now one thousand American fliers but no machines, and the French cannot spare any. As a result the American sectors are virtually unprotected by aircraft, the French coming when they can, but infrequently. German planes have flown so low over the American lines that American soldiers have fired pistols at them.

3. The confidential opinion of aircraft experts on the other side is that the Liberty motor will not be as good as the motors being made in France and England for the combat planes, though they may prove very satisfactory for bomb-dropping planes.

4. The morale of the French and British forces is excellent,

but the Entente forces on the western front are facing superior numbers of Germans, emphasizing the imperative need for more men from America.

5. The National Army is a splendid body of men, and should be moved to France as speedily as possible.

6. So far as possible the raw materials should be sent abroad, and munitions, artillery, and airplanes constructed over there. 7. More ships are absolutely essential to the winning of the war. The ships are needed to carry not only men but supplies to France. 8. While the French can supply guns and shells, it is vitally essential that America speed up her output. There are no American guns in France. Materials should be shipped over and the guns manufactured there. It is a war of big guns.

9. The General Staff should be enlarged and should devote its time to the big planning. There is great need for this. General Pershing has an excellent staff in France.

10. While short of equipment of various sorts, and absolutely dependent on the French for artillery and machine guns, the American expeditionary force is a fine body of troops, and will give a good account of itself. Its morale is excellent.

Some of the unpleasant facts in this record have been known for some time to many experts and students of our army conditions. The Outlook has been criticised as "unpatriotic" for publishing some of them before. But the most unpatriotic thing that the country can do in this crisis is to refuse to face the facts. When they are known, the country can set itself to work to remedy them.

SUBMARINES AND SHIP-BUILDING

In England, as in America, there has been complaint of lethargy in ship-building. A valuable result of the frank statement as to submarines and ships lately made in the House of Commons by the First Lord of the Admiralty, Sir Eric Geddes, has been the centering of public opinion and official effort on the speeding up of ship-building. It may well have the like effect in this country. This is a case where clear knowledge of the facts is essential to the right prosecution of war work.

It is true that since January 6 of this year there has been no single week in which the total losses of British ships have been equal to the average weekly number since the ruthless submarine warfare began. It is true also that Germany's threats of destroying British trade within a year have not been fulfilled, or anything like fulfilled. Nevertheless the figures now given as to the world's shipping show that the loss by submarines is serious; that the new shipping launched is not keeping up with the losses; and that the submarine will be a continuing menace until ship-building in Great Britain and the United States is speeded up to more than cover the losses. Sir Eric puts the gross loss from all causes in the world's shipping (exclusive of enemy loss) during the war at over 11,000,000 tons, of which 6,000,000 tons were lost in 1917, and estimates Great Britain's net loss since the ruthless submarine warfare began at 1,300,000 tons that is, the losses have exceeded the output by that amount. On the other hand, there was a welcome gain relatively in the last quarter of 1917 in ship-building, followed, however, by disappointing figures for January and February of this year. The need in England, as here, seems to be for skilled labor. There as well as here, also, this need may be offset by standardizing ship-building, and the outlook in this direction seems to be good.

It may be added that the war against submarines carried on by British and American naval vessels and armed merchantmen has been brave and skillful in the extreme. It is believed with reason that better results are being obtained all the time. As to this Sir Eric said:

The results of the past year have shown the ability of our seamen to get upon terms with the submarine menace, and gradually to gain the upper hand. This result has been achieved in spite of an imperfect knowledge of a new and barbarous method of warfare and of a scarcity of suitable material. Our material resources for this warfare are already improved, and are being rapidly augmented, whilst science is placing at our disposal means of offense and defense of which we have been in need.

THE NEW RAILWAY ERA

Under the executive war powers of the President the steam ailways of the United States have been since December 28, 1917,

under Government control. But legislation by Congress was needed to provide for the permanency of Government operation and for payment to the owners for the property taken over. Congress has now passed this legislation, and the President has signed the bill. Under the new Act Government operation of the railways is to last only twenty-one months after peace is established. But there is nothing in the Act to prohibit a future Congress from making Government operation permanent, and many good judges believe that the step now taken is a permanent one. If it is found by experience that the railways under Government operation give more satisfactory service than under private operation, and especially if the property owners find that the returns from their investments are more stable under Government control than under private control, the country will undoubtedly insist upon continuing Government operation. What we have now under the new Act is Government operation and not Government ownership. Following the suggestion of the President made on January 4, 1918, the new Act provides that the Government shall take over the railways and pay to the owners as rental an amount to each railway equivalent to "the average net railway operating income of the three years ending June 30, 1917." The new law provides that if the railways are returned to their private owners they shall be returned in as good repair and with as complete equipment as at present. The President, through the Director-General of Railroads, is to initiate rates and fares, subject to revision by the Inter-State Commerce Commission.

So far as the traveling public is concerned, little difference will be observed at present in the operation of the roads from that which appears on the surface under private management. In most instances the railway officials will be retained in their present positions, time-tables will probably be published as usual, and the names of the various railways will appear on the cars. But the Government now has it in its power to make some radical reforms and changes, and these will doubtless be made as time goes on. There will be central purchasing bureaus for all the roads, and steps have already been taken to standardize rolling stock, locomotives, and other forms of equipment. There will be many technical changes, but these it is not necessary for the layman to think about. What will practically happen will be that the Government will keep its hand and eye on all receipts and on all expenditures, and will guarantee to the railways a specified balance, which is measured by their previous net earnings, for distribution among their stockholders and bondholders. Mr. McAdoo, Secretary of the Treasury, as Director-General of Railroads, has the authority now to dismiss any incompetent railway officials and employ those whom he thinks can run the railways efficiently. One thing that will doubtless be done at an early date for the convenience of the traveling public is the issuance of a mileage book good on any railway in any part of the country. Complicated freight classifications and schedules may also be done away with in the near future. This would tend to facilitate not only the convenience and comfort of shippers but would abolish the very expensive system of accounting which is now maintained by the railways. Routing may also be improved. If a merchant has a car-load of goods to ship from New York to San Francisco, he may, under the new system, deliver his goods at a receiving point in New York, and Government officials will determine what line of railways shall transport the cars.

The Post-Office under Government operation is a highly suc cessful transportation business, and the Parcel Post, which many people looked upon with misgivings, has justified itself and has increased the scale of its operations. It is conceivable that goods or freight of any size, weight, or dimensions might be transported by the Government, with a system of Governmentoperated railways, like the smaller parcels which are now carried by the Parcel Post. Thus, as has been suggested by Mr. Theodore Price, of "Commerce and Finance," a shipper, instead of getting a bill of lading and having to settle his freight account at destination, may in some not far distant future buy a ticket for his packing-case or his piano or his automobile or his steel beams just as he buys a ticket for himself, and paste this ticket in the form of a Government postage-stamp on the goods which he wishes to ship.

These enticing visions of simplification in the transportation

of freight are things to be worked out in the future. In the meantime all citizens, whether they are shippers, travelers, or railway-security owners, should co-operate with the Government in every possible way to make the railway operation under the present law a success. We shall then all be in a better position to determine after the war ends whether the new policy adopted as a war measure shall be made the permanent policy of the country.

AN APPROPRIATE MEMORIAL

The enactment of the Railroad Bill, under which the United States Government has taken over the operation of all steam railways of the country, brings to the front again the question as to whether all public utilities should be operated by Government or by private corporations under Government regulation. As a matter of fact, we have now and shall have for many years both systems in operation in this country. The delivery of potable water in our cities, towns, and villages constitutes a public utility. In early days this public utility was administered by private corporations. It is now universally administered by Government. But the telephone and the electric light, which are also public utilities, are still operated by private corporations under Government regulation, and we think the sentiment of the country is in favor of such operation, at least for the present. Private operation under regulation and public operation by Government are thus inextricably associated.

The regulatory system has one advantage which is often lost sight of. It is a training school for men who may, should, and often do become the administrators when public utilities are taken over by the Government. Such a man was John Eshleman, of California, who died about two years ago, but whose memory is kept green by a bust which has just been presented to the University of California by the Utilities Bureau of Philadelphia. We reproduce a photograph of this bust on another page.

The Utilities Bureau of Philadelphia is a private civic body the purpose of which is to keep the public informed regarding the best methods and achievements of public utility corpora tions, whether private or Governmental. Mr. Eshleman was a distinguished public utility expert. He had worked as a section hand and boss on a California railway, prepared himself for college by studying at night, often by the light of his railway lantern, entered the University of California, and graduated from that institution in 1902 with the highest honors. He soon was elected one of the California railway commissioners and became President of the Commission, and in this office he made a very distinguished record, winning the respect and confidence both of the people and the railway managers. If the municipal, State, or National operation of public utilities is to be successful, the Government administrators must be men of the type of John Eshleman, educated for their work, free from partisanship, and devoted to the public service. It is a good thing that the undergraduates of the University of California should have before them the Eshleman bust as a constant reminder that the truest patriotism imposes upon the American citizen a devotion to the public service in time of peace as well as to the military service in time of war.

TWO STATEMENTS

In accepting the resignation from the Federal Trade Commission of Joseph E. Davies, the Democratic candidate for Senator in Wisconsin, President Wilson said:

The McLemore resolution, the embargo issue, and the armed neutrality measure presented the first opportunities to apply the acid test in our country to disclose true loyalty and genuine Americanism. It should always be a source of much satisfaction to you that on these crucial propositions you proved true. In defending Representative Irvine L. Lenroot, the Republican candidate, from the President's implications, Congressman Anderson, of Minnesota, declared:

Thirty-five Democrats voted as Mr. Lenroot voted—against tabling the McLemore resolution. Is it the intention of the President and the Democratic Campaign Committee to oppose the

re-election of these Democrats and support the candidacy of the loyal Republicans who will be nominated against them?"

This list includes Fitzgerald, of New York, then Chairman of the Committee on Appropriations; Foster, of Illinois, Chairman of the Committee on Mines and Mining; and Webb, of North Carolina, Chairman of the Judiciary Committee. It includes the name of William Kent, of California, whom the President recently appointed to a place on the Tariff Commission. Is it possible that the President is appointing disloyal men to places of trust and confidence in the Government?.

Is the test represented by these votes a better test than the vote on the declaration of war against Germany or on the Kahn amendments to the Selective Service Act, which were absolutely necessary to carry out the Administration's policy touching the raising of an army? If not, what will be the attitude of the Democratic Campaign Committee as to the re-election of Mr. Kitchin, the leader of the Democratic majority in the House? He voted against both of these propositions.

What will be their attitude toward Chairman Dent, of the Committee on Military Affairs, who opposed the Kahn amendments and now opposes the passage of a bill amending the Selective Service Act proposed by the Administration?

What will be their attitude touching the re-election of the Speaker of the House, who likewise voted against the Kahn amendments? How will they consistently support the election of the fifty-odd other Democrats who voted against the Kahn amendments?

Without the support of Mr. Lenroot and his associates not only one but several of the measures absolutely necessary for the winning of the war would have failed of What passage. would be the attitude of the Democratic Campaign Committee touching the Democrats who but for the loyalty and patriotism of the Republicans would have defeated the programme of essential legislation?

It must be admitted that, during the period in 1914, 1915, and 1916 when the President was advocating neutrality of thought and feeling, Mr. Lenroot was to some extent affected by that policy and by the taint of La Follette-ism which nearly ruined Wisconsin. But since our entry into the war Representative Lenroot has supported the cause of his country and its allies with vigor, patriotism, and effectiveness.

As the leader of his party the President has the right and duty to try to get the kind of Congress he wants. If Mr. Davies is a better loyalist than Mr. Lenroot, all loyalists in Wisconsin should unite on Mr. Davies. But the President's action may prove a political boomerang.

CONSCIENTIOUS OBJECTORS

On March 20 President Wilson issued an executive order providing that all conscientious objectors to military service who have been called out in the selective draft should be given non-combatant service. The non-combatant branches as outlined by the President include the Medical Corps, Quartermaster Corps, and the Engineer Service.

This order covers the treatment of all persons of draft age who have been ordered to report for military service, and who have been certified by local boards as belonging to religious sects whose creeds forbid participation in war or who object to such participation because of conscientious scruples, but have failed to receive certificates as members of religious sects.

The service in the Medical Corps includes service in the sanitary detachments attached to combatant units at the front, service in the divisional sanitary trains composed of ambulance companies and field hospital companies on the line of communications, at the base in France, and with the troops and at the hospitals in the United States; also the service of supply and repair in the Medical Department.

While any service in the Quartermaster Corps may be treated as non-combatant, the President mentions in particular, at the rear of the zone of operations, service in the following: stevedore companies, labor companies, remount depots, veterinary hospitals, supply depots, bakery companies, the subsistence service, the bathing service, the laundry service, the salvage service, the clothing renovating service, the shoe repair service, and transportation repair service and motor truck companies.

While any engineer service may also be treated as non-combatant, the President mentions, at the rear of the zone of oper ations, the following services: railway building, operation, and

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