truly great book or writer must do something with us that is large, important, influential, permanent, original, and unique, and must do it either in the sphere of our emotions or in that of our intelligence, or in both. I have tried to show also that the universal tendency to rank writers and the forms of literature is founded in a law of our nature, and that the application of collective standards of judgment will enable us to classify writers in a useful and not too arbitrary way. I have tried to show that writers worthy of attention may be conveniently divided according as they are supreme, very great, great, important, and minor; I have distinguished these classes from one another, and have endeavored to give practical tests by which any reader may at least begin to discriminate in his reading. All that has been said is intended to be suggestive merely. Even if the classification attempted has been made on correct lines, it needs filling out and requires many qualifications. There are writers who can only with difficulty be classified under this or any other scheme. Is Herrick, for instance, a great or only an important poet? Then, again, by the classification here suggested, a writer might be put in a rather high class, yet certain obvious defects might make it very questionable whether his rank ought not to be reduced. And we must always remember that any scheme of classification is bad if it tends to make our judgments hard and fast, if it induces us to think that we can stick a pin through a writer and ticket him as an entomologist does an insect. But if we use such a scheme intelligently, it may prove useful, if only by stimulating us to candid objections, for candid objections imply honest thought, and honest thought on such a noble subject as literature cannot but be beneficial.

GERMANY IN INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE1

DR. PAUL ARNDT, Berlin.

It is difficult for a foreigner to understand the present situation of Germany. Modern Germany is the product of an extremely complex historical development which extends over many centuries, and in which periods of the highest prosperity have alternated with those of the deepest adversity. Many political institutions of the modern German Empire, especially the constitutional and social conditions, the economic relations, and the intellectual culture are intelligible only to one who is familiar with the achievements and the fortunes of the generations that are past. There are those so ignorant or so foolish as to wish to regard and to treat Germany as an upstart in the councils of the nations, when, in fact, since the fall of the Roman Empire, scarcely a great historical event has happened in which the Germans have not taken a prominent part,-often that of leaders. The memories of the periods of the Frankish, the Saxon, and the Hohenstaufen Emperors, of the Hansa and the Reformation, of the achievements of the Great Elector and Frederick the Great, of Stein and Bismarck, as well as of the contemporary poets and philosophers, are still living forces in the modern German Empire.

One who does not know these mighty traditions of Germany and who has failed to apply himself with love and appreciation to the study of the character of the German people will be unable to comprehend the present position of Germany in inter

(1) Translated by Professor W. H. Carruth of the University of Kansas. Copyright, 1902, by Frederick A. Richardson.

national politics and international commerce, and will be constantly surprised by its future development.

It is not possible within the limits of the present sketch of the economic situation of Germany at the beginning of the twentieth century to enumerate and characterize all the forces that have produced its present economic greatness. But we shall endeavor to call attention to the most important phases of the subject.

First the facts will be enumerated which characterize Germany's present economic situation; then we shall examine the foundations upon which the most recent economic development of Germany rests; and finally we shall discuss Germany's prospects in the future international commerce of the world.

I.

The economic development of Germany in the nineteenth century may be briefly summarized in the statement, that Germany has passed from the condition of an agrarian nation to that of an industrial nation. At the beginning of the nineteenth century, about eighty per cent of the population were engaged in agriculture; shortly before the Franco-Prussian War, the proportion of farmers had fallen to fifty per cent of the people, and at the close of the nineteenth century the percentage of agricultural population had sunk to thirty per cent. On the other hand, commerce and manufacture have enjoyed a vigorous development. The rural population has not increased since the establishment of the new German Empire, while the urban population has increased by nearly one half. Twenty-five years ago there were but ten cities in Germany with a population that exceeded 100,000, whereas in 1900 there were thirty-three such cities,-fourteen with more than 200,000 inhabitants, seven with more than 300,000, and five with more than 400,000.

However, the productive capacity of German agriculture has not been reduced by any means; on the contrary, the acreage cultivated has been extended, the total yield of farm products has become greater, and the amount of live stock has increased. There has been a decided improvement in intensity of culti

vation.

From a given acreage the German farmer of today harvests, on the average, twice, and sometimes thrice, as much as he did forty years ago.

But German manufactures have enjoyed much greater progress. The consumption of raw cotton within the German tariff limits has been nearly six times as large in the last few years as it was forty years ago. Germany's production of raw iron in the years 1876-80 amounted to 2,000,000 tons annually, while in 1899 it was 8,000,000 tons. The output of coal in Germany has doubled within the last twenty years.

The domestic economic transformation of Germany has manifested itself outwardly in her participation in foreign commerce. During the greater part of the nineteenth century, Germany exported principally agricultural products, while her imports were manufactures and groceries. The change set in soon after the foundation of the German Empire. Now Germany alone imports, annually, grain to the value of $119,000,000 besides many other products of agriculture, grazing and forestry, while it exports manufactures to the value of almost $714,000,000.

The importations of Germany rose from $714,000,000 at the beginning of the eighth decade of the last century to between $1,300,000,000 and $1,400,000,000 in the last few years, and the exports from $714,000,000 to $1,071,000,000. The difference in the character of the various articles of import and export may be seen from a comparison of the most important goods handled in each way. Among the imports the most prominent are provisions and raw materials for manufacture; among the exports the chief are finished manufactures. In the year 1900, according to German statistical reports, the most important imports were, in relative order: raw cotton, raw wool, wheat, raw coffee, gold coin, coal, Indian corn, raw copper, lumber, woolen yarn, uncolored raw silk, gold unminted and in bricks, eggs, tobacco leaf, hides, machinery, rye, barley, lard, petroleum, horses, nitrate of soda, unsawed wood, and iron ores.

The most important export wares were the following: cotton goods, woolen goods, machinery, coal, sugar, silk goods, hardware,

clothing, millinery goods, gold coin, books, maps, music, aniline and other coal-tar dyes, gold and silver ware, cutlery, chromos, chromo-lithographs, etchings, coke, stained and lacquered leather, and toys.

The countries from which Germany draws her most important imports are the United States, England, Russia, and AustroHungary; in recent years Germany has bought from each of these countries goods to the value of over $166,600,000 annually. After these there is a wide gap down to France, from which the imports amount to about $71,400,000, and then comes a group of countries each of which sends to Germany goods to the value of $47,600,000 annually,-Argentina, British East India, Belgium, Holland, Italy, and Switzerland.

The most important market for the exports of Germany is England, which has purchased, annually during recent years, goods to the value of $202,300,000 from Germany; then follows Austro-Hungary with almost $120,000,000; in the third rank stand the United States, Holland, and Russia, with $96,000,000, each, in round numbers; while to Switzerland, France, and Belgium, Germany exports goods valued at from $48,000,000 to $72,000,000 each.

As is evident from these figures, the greater portion of Germany's foreign trade is not with remote parts of the earth, but with Europe itself. In the year 1900, the importations of Germany from European countries amounted to $903,700,000, those from Africa to $35,000,000, those from Asia to $88,000,ooo, those from the United States to $380,300,000, and those from Australia to $30,000,000, while Germany's exports to European countries were valued at $880,300,000, those to Africa at $17,300,000, those to Asia at $55,000,000, those to America at $166,000,000, and those to Australia at $12,000,000. Moreover, the greater portion of the foreign commerce of the United States is also with Europe.

A comparison of the extent of Germany's foreign trade with that of other countries is difficult because the statistical methods. for the compilation and the estimates of the value of products are