various reasons the physiologically potential birth rate will soon decline until the balance of births and deaths will be automatically maintained, appeal to some sound facts, but they vastly overestimate the importance of them in the practical problem. The error is great in supposing that the institutional and volitional control of the birth rate will cease to be practically the one of the greatest social significance. (b) If in the case of the birth rate the actual falls far short of the physiologically possible, in the case of the death rate the actual is considerably in excess of the physiologically necessary. Malthus no doubt assigns to this fact an exaggerated importance, but, justly estimated, its importance is still considerable. In large classes of the population, to some extent in every class, the death rate exceeds that which would occur with sufficient food, proper conditions of life, and good sanitation. The progress of hygenic science itself would, with a stationary birth rate, result in a great increase of population. Indeed the phenomenon of a decrease both of the birth rate and death rate while population still increases, is the familiar fact of recent vital statistics. On the other hand, it will always be true that in any given set of circumstances an increase of the birth rate will be followed by somewhat increased mortality. From this fact, however, Malthus draws unwarranted and sweeping conclusions. (c) Another great fact to which Malthus appealed was that the capacity of the soil in food production is limited. The complexity of the productive process in modern society makes much less clear, but can not conceal, the fact that there exists some relationship more or less immediate between the fertility of land and the number of inhabitants it can support in comfort. The mercantilist views, still prevalent when Malthus wrote, were the exaggerated expression of a complementary truth. Those who have attempted to deny "diminishing returns in agriculture" have reached such absurd conclusions that they have added much to the renown of Malthus. Malthus himself, as above shown,1 applied but lamely in his Essay the "law of diminishing returns," though he developed it more consistently 1 Criticism No. I. in his other writings. It will ultimately be recognized that instead of being a law peculiar to agricultural production, arising out of the nature of land, this is only a special case of the universal law of economic production; the factors must be combined in certain proportions to produce the maximum result. On this firm foundation it is beyond controversy. No further reasons are needed to account for the wide vogue which the doctrine of Malthus has enjoyed despite its theoretic weakness. His championing of individualism, his plausible and popular explanation of poverty, the central place the doctrine took in economic theory, the seductive ambiguity of his language, the eternal biologic and physical facts to which he appealed, these are reasons enough. To estimate justly the services of this Essay to economic science is not easy. It seems safe now, however, to say they have been greatly exaggerated; that not only did the teachings of Malthus, more than anything else, give to economics the false sombre hue which it had for many decades, but that they sent the discussions on wages, rent, and interest, and on the nature of economic progress, off on false paths which only lately have begun to be retraced. The practical service done by Malthus in the part he had in the reform of the poor laws is far greater than the merit of his "principle of population" considered as a theoretical economic proposition. In fact it is evident one hundred years after Malthus that such a thing as a "principle of population" in any tenable sense of the phrase is a chimera. The problem of the relations of the number of people and their welfare to the material environment is much too complex ever to be expressed by any single principle or even single paragraph. A doctrine, or body of generalizations on the subject, which will contain all the truths that Malthus saw while avoiding his errors, is not only possible but has been gradually evolving. Too much of the current discussion of the subject still is in the nature of the old fallacious answers to Malthusian riddles, or is treadmill reiteration of the worn-out phrases. Meantime the evolution doctrine advances, in the biologic and psychological sciences, juster views of economic motives and the nature of economic consumption, broader studies of the growth of social institutions, exacter statistics from widely separated fields, have placed the subject of population in an entirely different perspective. A true doctrine of population, taking account of all these factors, will in turn throw light on every other problem connected with the well-being of man upon this earth. The gentle, just, and truth-loving spirit of Malthus must, if he still interests himself in mundane problems, view with satisfaction the progress that has been made in the last quarter of a century toward sounder conceptions on this subject to which, a hundred years ago, he gave such prominence in economic discussion. The next few years should see an end of a century of word-quibbling debate. It should see a recognition of the errors of Malthus and of the eternal significance of some of the things he contended for. Practical problems of the highest importance, connected with the doctrine of population, await the attention of the sociologist and the statesman. The degeneration of the race and the depopulation of the superior classes are becoming more serious threats to civilization than was the excessive growth of numbers among the poor of England, which in large part was responsible for the remarkable Essay of Robert Malthus. The Indiana University. FRANK A. Fetter. SOME ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE LIBERATION OF CUBA. THE HE attention of Europe and America is centered, to-day, in what is called the solution of the Cuban problem. What that solution will be can not at present be exactly determined; but that Cuba will be released from the old régime of Spanish misrule and taxation is not doubted. The economic possibilities which this new freedom will create, and the complications that will be introduced into the present sugar crisis, open a new phase of the question which should attract universal interest and invite investigation. One of the great agricultural conflicts of this century has been between beet and cane sugar. Under a system of protection and bounties, which the governments have given freely, the beet industry has far surpassed the limits of natural production in Europe. The United States, in 1890, attempted to foster this industry, but since the Wilson Act of 1894 it has been left to the illusory aid of State bounties. Hawaii has been able, of late, to rival the production of Louisiana, and under annexation will increase her output to a much larger figure. The consumption of sugar has been steadily increasing, but a world stock of over a million tons has been left annually in the last few years. When Cuban sugar is again placed on the markets, not only will its competition affect the beet industry, but a more severe conflict will ensue between the different sources of cane supply. Cuba, free or annexed, is the coming competitor to be feared. It is necessary to discuss the conditions under which Cuba has been hampered in the past before any just estimate can be given of her future possibilities. In 1882 Cuba was just recovering from the effects of the revolution of 1868. The sugar industry increased rapidly under the more liberal policy adopted at that time to pacify the island. A succession of treaties also did much to improve her condition. In spite of the adherence of Spain to the old mercantile policy the island was in a prosperous condition; but Spain proved herself both avaricious and shortsighted and fastened on Cuba by the law of "commercial relations" a system of economic extortion. A heavy export duty of $6 was levied on each hogshead of sugar in addition to the internal taxes, which fell on the sugar plantations. Besides these burdens, extra charges were exacted by the transportation monopolies, for carrying, storing, carting, and loading on vessels. It is estimated that the taxes on sugar were equal to 143% of its value. They imposed an extra burden on the planter at an unfortunate period of transition. Every change from slave to free labor has been attended with certain evils rising from a forced re-adjustment. The smaller planters began to abandon their estates. Taxation and debt ruined many who possessed large and fertile fields. The Consul at Matanzas, in 1883, reported that brigandage was beginning to appear and threatened to increase as poverty spread among the proletarian class. The Cuban tariff raised the cost of living and production for the sugar planter. In 1884, J. W. Foster, then Minister to Madrid, worked out some comparative statistics of cost, which are interesting in this connection. The price of 100 lbs. of flour, quoted in gold, was $3 in Louisiana, or 42 lbs. of sugar; in Demerara $3.50, or 87 lbs. of sugar; while Cuba paid $8, or 238 lbs. of sugar. The price of meat per pound was 8 cents in the first two, but II cents in Cuba. Labor was at the same price, in gold, for field hands, but the Louisiana planter need only pay 285 lbs. in sugar for what cost his Cuban competitor 571 lbs. A month's wages would buy 666 lbs. of flour or 250 lbs. of meat for the American laborer, while the Cuban laborer could only get 250 lbs. of flour or 181 lbs. of meat. Other statistics of the necessaries of life compare very closely with the same ratio. The only class to escape this burden were the very lowest, who lived in rude huts and subsisted on almost nothing. The value of 2,500 lbs. of cane was $6.10. The cost of production amounted to $5.97, leaving only a net profit of 13 cents. Those who were able hired Chinese laborers who did all the work and received 2 out of 3 hogsheads of sugar and molasses at the end of their contract. This was an increase of 50% in profit over slave labor. Production began to fall off, however, |