working class is now in progress, and it will go on; it is then wise for all of us to understand the matter, and to bring ourselves and our affairs into concurrence and co-operation with the actual and the inevitable. Those who are in the movement need perhaps some words of warning, more than those who are but partly influenced by its course; and our great care should be to save these hopeful and ambitious working people from the dangerous whirl of revolution, and to advance for them that peaceful progress which secures material interest, promotes good government, and raises both the intellectual and moral qualities of men. That thus, each class among us being properly endowed to meet its vast material and political responsibilities, the powers of the State may be maintained; and that our commonwealth of England, with its unexampled influence for good throughout the world, may long be happily preserved.

ART. XI.-1. Returns of the Polls in Parliamentary Elections, 1874-1886.

2. The Autumn Session of Parliament, 1890.

THE

HE results of the Barrow and Eccles elections, following upon several previous bye-elections, in which the Unionists had been unsuccessful, led the official Radicals last autumn to profess the noisiest confidence in their coming triumph. Mr. John Morley, as we know from his own admissions, was discussing with Mr. Parnell on the 10th of last November how a Gladstonian Government could give protection to the evicted tenants on the Plan of Campaign estates, and, 'referring to the probable approaching victory of the Liberal Party at the polls,' was inquiring whether Mr. Parnell would be willing to assume the office of Chief Secretary to the Lord-Lieutenant of Ireland. Since the disruption of the Parnellite Party, Unionist speakers and writers, with equal confidence, have foretold an overwhelming defeat for Radicalism at the General Election. In both cases the prophets base their hopes on a partial view of the political situation, and argue from certain selected events, favourable to their own side. They have not regarded the gradual development and changes in the character of contending parties during a series of years, or the underlying feelings, which are in consequence of these changes at work in men's minds. It is, therefore, opportune to review in its broad aspect the course of the policies pursued by parties since the last General Election, and to endeavour to estimate what effect it will have upon the future of political thought in England. The general conversion of the educated classes from Liberalism to Conservatism dates from

the

the first ascendency of Mr. Gladstone in 1868. It has been fostered by his successive abandonments of all fixed Liberal principles, and reckless lapse into opportunism. The modern expansion and popularity of the Conservative Party spring from the closer contact with the wage-earning classes, which was necessitated by the Reform Act of 1867, and was extended by the Reform and Redistribution Acts of 1884. Those who superficially compare the total result of the General Election of 1874 with that of 1880 have concluded that there was a reaction from Conservatism between these two dates. This conclusion is misleading. The elections of 1874 worked out as luckily for the Conservatives, as did those of 1880 for the Liberals. In 1874 the Conservative representation was as largely in excess of that, which a proportional system would have given, as was the Liberal representation in 1880. In 1874 there was an active conflict in many constituencies between the sections of the Liberal Party, and in all, a rankling soreness and indifference amongst the Nonconformists. In 1880, the Conservatives lost seats by very narrow majorities in the smallest Boroughs, where the shifting of a few votes altered the colour of the representation. They lost seats in the Counties. But no close observer can believe that the Counties were lost by any real revolt from the Imperial policy of Lord Beaconsfield. They were lost in consequence of agricultural depression, and because the farmers were irritated by what they deemed to be the want of sympathy with their distress, shown by the Conservative leaders, and chose either sulkily to abstain from working and voting, or, for the time, to support the other side. In the large towns, and indeed in all districts, in which political life is most active, there was a positive increase in the Conservative polls, and a distinct increase in intelligent Conservative enthusiasm. In 1885 the spread of Conservatism was marked in the old constituencies, and amongst the old voters. Then came the General Election of 1886, fought under completely exceptional conditions, but in which, after making every allowance for the crowning effect of the Liberal Unionist vote and attitude, the increased strength in England of the Conservative Party was again made manifest.

Since that time, under the Government of Lord Salisbury the country has enjoyed four years of peace and prosperity. Ireland, excepting some few isolated plague-spots of disturbance, has been rendered orderly, and comparatively prosperous. The specific form of lawlessness, which in 1886 was epidemic, has been virtually stamped out. Encouraged by the successful operation of Lord Ashbourne's Acts, the Government have introduced a

great

great measure of Land-purchase, which was read a second time in the House of Commons by a majority of 138. A portion of this Bill contains the first serious legislative attempt to remedy the condition of the congested districts. In the Session of 1889 a measure for the construction of Light Railways in Ireland had been passed, in the face of bitter Radical opposition, and, at the end of last Session, when there was some fear that a failure of the potato-crop would produce exceptional distress, further powers were obtained, after a night's sitting of Irish obstruction, to expedite the commencement of the work in distressed districts. In the sympathetic and elaborate statement which Mr. Balfour made in moving a vote on account of proposed relief works, ample proof was given that the problem of dealing with this immediate distress, and also of adding permanently to the material resources of Ireland, had engaged his whole mind. Abroad, possible causes of quarrel with Russia, France, and Germany, have been removed. The expansion of Great Britain in Africa has been assured. Egypt has been regenerated. In administration, permanent provision has been made that the strength of the Navy should be adequately maintained. The Imperial coaling-stations and harbours have at last been put into a proper state of defence. In finance, by the conversion of Consols an annual relief of 2,600,000l., will shortly be given to the taxpayers. In the four years the National Debt has been lessened by 29,404,000l., Imperial taxation has been reduced by 7,500,000Z., and Local taxation relieved by 3,641,000, while the expenditure is less by 6,140,000l. than it was in 1886. In legislation, by a comprehensive scheme of constructive statesmanship, popular, representative, local government has been given to London and the Counties. From their design, their scope, their details, and their successful working, the Local Government Acts would by themselves give permanent distinction to the legislation of any Government. During these years the most malignant opponents have been unable to point to any flagrant jobbery, or to detect any gross administrative blunders. In addition to this record of the work accomplished by the Government for the nation as a whole, an ingenious platform speaker might draw an effective picture of the benefits which have been conferred by it upon particular sections of the community. He might take the concrete case of an artizan, or a miner, or an agricultural labourer, or a soldier, or a policeman, or a merchant sailor, and show how in the daily life of each one of them, the Fraudulent Trade Marks Act, the Coal Mines Regulation Act, the Allotments Acts, the Barracks Act, the Police Superannuation Acts, the Load-line Act, and

Mr. Goschen's

Mr. Goschen's successive reductions in taxation, had given material advantages. He might place his typical workman in an insanitary house, or quarter, and show how the Housing of the Working Classes Act would improve his opportunities of securing a healthy home. He might follow the schooldays of his children, and explain the added provision for technical and continued instruction which the Technical Education Act and the new Code have supplied. He might compare the present rates of wages, and the means of employment at home, and the outlets for enterprise abroad, with those which prevailed during the depressing rule of Mr. Gladstone. With such a record of Conservative work, the old Liberal charges against Conservatives have become palpably false. Against this Government and the Parties which support it, it is idle to raise the antiquated cries of extravagance, delight in war, aristocratic prejudice, legislative or administrative lethargy or incapacity. The essential and abiding distinction between the work of this Government, and the threatened action of the Radicals, is, that in all its branches it has been actuated by a single desire to add prosperity to the community as a whole, and has not been impelled by ulterior designs of damaging some hated class, sect, or institution. In a word, the policy of the Government in every department of affairs has been wise and successful.

On the other side, during these four years the Radical Opposition has been led to adopt the aims and the methods of Irish agitation. Everywhere it foments the discontent, on which alone it thrives. Rejecting experience, contemptuous of principle, on every occasion it opposes authority, discards law, and sides with the law-breaker. Content, if it can pander to some passing local, or class prejudice, it never looks forward to the ultimate consequences of its acts. From mining districts it is reported that seats will be lost unless the Radical candidates swallow the Eight Hours Bill, and this measure is promptly accepted as an integral article of his creed by every orthodox Radical candidate for such constituencies. In Scotland, impatient Disestablishers of the Church have loudly asserted, that the interests of the Party demand an authoritative pronouncement in favour of Disestablishment, and Mr. Gladstone obsequiously bends to their clamour. In both these instances the wirepullers are probably right in thinking that electoral success in a few strictly limited constituencies depends at the moment upon the adoption of these cries; in both instances they have characteristically disregarded principle and authority, but in both they may find in the end that, in yielding to the clamours

of

of a noisy faction they have committed a great error in tactics, and that the large majority of voters, both in England and Scotland, is not prepared to endorse these revolutionary proposals. There are solid grounds for the belief, that the general and matured sense, in the first instance of the English wage-earning class as a whole, and in the second instance of Scotland, will condemn the Eight Hours' Bill, and Disestablishment, and will punish the hasty adoption of these cries by politicians, who have been simply actuated by an overmastering desire to purchase votes, everywhere, and by any means. In its real distrust of the intelligence of the people, the 'New Radicalism' always assumes that the most votes are with the unreasoning and discontented sections of the community. And this, it may be hoped, is the cardinal blunder which will in England cripple its future power. The melancholy past and the natural poverty of Ireland may for some time yet to come make such tactics acceptable to a majority of her people. But England is a prosperous country. She has no historical causes of dissatisfaction with her institutions. She has enjoyed for generations civil peace. Her social order has been rarely disturbed. There are no deep race or religious divisions amongst her population. Her aristocracy and gentry are being constantly recruited by self-made men. Her wealthier classes, on the whole, realize the responsibilities of wealth, and discharge its duties, and, in consequence, command the general esteem. And, as the dominating fact of all, wealth is being more and more distributed, and the general standard of comfort raised.

In England, therefore, it might have been anticipated with confidence, even before the collapse of Parnellism, that the effect of the opposite policies of the Conservative Government and the Radical Opposition during the last four years would have been to increase the number of convinced and rational Conservatives. The evidence of events goes to prove that this is the case, and even the most unfavourable of the bye-elections do not militate against this fact. The Radicals have fought these elections with desperate energy. They have brought to bear upon particular constituencies a concentration of rhetorical and electioneering power which would not be available at a General Election. They have not been nice in their methods of obtaining votes. In many instances they have been lucky in their choice of a candidate, and in the occasion of the vacancy. They have thus, it is true, generally increased the polls they received in 1886. It is certain that in every recent election some portion of the fluctuating vote, which adventitiously supported the Conservatives in 1885 and 1886, has deserted the party which has been Vol. 172.-No. 343.

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for