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salient. It threw the British back in their first great attack early in July, and was a stumbling block in every succeeding effort of the Somme battle. Its capture was due entirely to a surprise attack made in the midst of the fighting in another sector miles away.

Germans Slop to React

The most noticeable thing in all this fighting. was the slowness of the Germans to react. Several days elapsed before a counterstroke was attempted. And even when it did come it was conspicuously lacking in the dash which has characterized similar movements. It is as if for the time being the Germans were thoroughly shaken by their inability to hold their positions, and were going into action doubtful of the result. All doubt was removed, however, by the British and French, who clung tenaciously to every foot of the ground they had gained.

Ten days later, another push established the British lines beyond Le Sarsanother gain of a mile toward Bapaume. The next attempt was made south of the Somme, this time by the French alone. It was directed against Chaulnes and succeeded in wiping out the salient between the Chaulnes Woods and Hill 91 and in drawing a straight line between these two points. The sequence of the allied attacks, each one of which resulted in a material gain of ground, is worthy of note:

Sept. 17-Berny and Vermandovillers taken.
Sept. 26-27-Combles and Thiepval taken.
Oct. 7-Le Sars taken.
Oct. 11-Bovent taken.

It may be seen that there have been four attacks made, one by the British alone, two by the French alone, and one combined attack. Between the three major attacks (that of Oct. 11 being a minor move over a narrow front) there was an interval of ten days. In other words, it takes ten days' preparation before an attack; ten days of shell accumulation, consolidation of newly acquired territory; ten days of beating off counterattacks.

The value of the attacks on the Somme cannot be measured alone by the actual territory regained. The measure of value

must be the relative amount of permanent damage done by the Allies compared to the damage which they themselves suffer.

First, there is the question of losses in men. For a period of two years, the German casualty lists show the relation between the number of prisoners and the total casualties to be as 1 to 7. The Allies have reported over 70,000 prisoners taken since July 1. This figure is undoubtedly correct. The one thing the Allies cannot afford to do-largely because if they did they would be caught at it is to misstate this feature of the fighting. If this relation of 1 to 7 holds in the Somme fighting, the minimum German losses have been at least 500,000 men. As a matter of fact the total is probably greater. Never before have the Germans had to fight as they do now. The intensity of artillery fire, which they themselves admit is unprecedented, has been shown literally to blot out of existence everything in its path.

Allies' Losses, 500,000

Now, as to the losses of the Allies in this series of attacks, we have Germany's official estimate of 500,000. This is probably not far out of the way, as the Allies have saved lives at the expense of shell. The thoroughness of the artillery preparation is shown by the fact that when the infantry goes forward it is seldom halted until it has penetrated the German positions to a depth of a mile or more. The British, whose reports of casualties are generally accepted as exact, report a total of approximately 320,000, and it must be realized that the British have had the hardest fighting to do. This is another reason for accepting the German estimate. It is true that one German authority advanced the theory, two or three days after the above estimate of 500,000 was given out, that the Allies' losses were well over 1,000,000. This is, however, too absurd to be taken seriously. It is undoubtedly meant for local consumption, and the author evidently forgets Verdun. If the Allies' loss in three months on the Somme reaches this enormous total, what was the German loss at Verdun in six months, the difference in tactics being considered? Ob

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MAP OF BATTLE OF THE SOMME, SHOWING TOTAL PROGRESS OF ANGLO-FRENCH

OFFENSIVE UP TO OCTOBER 15, 1916

viously nearly two million, and, equally obvious, absurd.

In its final analysis, then, the losses of both sides have been approximately equal.

Here we have the meat of the whole thing. Germany cannot stand this exchange of man for man because she is outnumbered several to one. She must

exact at least three to one on this front before she can be considered to have broken even.

The question of territory, too, deserves consideration, although, as we have seen so often in this war, the occupation of territory of itself has but little influence. The situation of Germany in France is not unlike a flagpole held erect by means of guy ropes. A rat, gnawing these ropes, cutting them apart, fibre by fibre, would eventually reach the point where one absolutely essential strand was cut. The pole would then fall. The German resistance is upheld by lines of communication and supply, consisting of the railroads and highways of France. As the Allies gnaw into the German position one road after the other will be cut, and the Germans will be forced to retire. There is no alternative. The Germans must halt the Allies' advance or they must move back toward the Rhine.

Reverses of Rumania

The

In Transylvania, the Germans have experienced the first taste of success they have had in many months. In the first days of Rumanian intervention the greater part of the army broke through the Transylvanian passes in an ill-advised attempt to stretch their line from Orsova to the southern tip of Bukowina. Teutonic allies countered with the invasion of Dobrudja, the object of which was to take the great bridge at Cornavoda, the only crossing of the Danube east of Belgrade, and thereby pave the way for an invasion of Rumania from the east. The arrival of Russian reinforcements brought this movement to a dead halt. Attention was then turned to Transylvania, where the Rumanians had succeeded in establishing an interrupted line, about thirty miles from the frontier.

The first effort was a raid against the Rumanian line of communications through Red Tower Pass, south of Hermannstadt. This raid was completely successful, and the Rumanians were forced to retire from Hermannstadt to the frontier. The Germans then began a terrific frontal attack along the whole line and forced the Rumanians back almost to their own border, where the German advance was checked.

The Russians had previously undertaken a terrific drive at Lemberg, directed from Brody, Bozezany, and Halicz. The Rumanian defeat forced the abandonment of this move and the diversion of the Russians to the Transylvanian theatre. The situation created by the German success evidently produced a panic throughout Rumania and provoked King Ferdinand into giving an interview to the press which laid bare his fear that Rumania was about to suffer the fate of Belgium and Serbia. The Allies, however, appreciate thoroughly the strategic importance of Rumania's position and seem to have shown that Ferdinand's fears were groundless.

Italy in the Carso

On the Italian front we have seen a renewal of the offensive against the Carso Plateau. Striking hard at the western edge of this calcareous tableland on a front reaching from Lake Doberdo to the Vipacco River, the Italians have firmly established themselves on the western tip of the plateau. About 8,000 prisoners have been taken and the Italians seem to be pressing their success to the limit, although it has not yet developed to the point where it assumes importance.

On the Saloniki front, Sarrail's main force is ominously quiet. There is considerable activity at the two flanks, one in the Monastir section, the other along the Struma, but between these two widely separated areas no fighting has occurred. The Serbs have consistently forced the Bulgars back, reaching a line almost due east and west through the railroad station at Kevali, about eight miles south of Monastir. The British operating along the Struma have crossed the river and at one point have cut the important railroad line from Drama to Demihissar. These movements, however, cannot as yet be considered as primary operations; on the contrary, they seem essentially secondary. But the season is getting late and with the approach of Winter fighting in the mountains must slow up if it does not cease altogether. It is beginning to be doubtful, therefore, if we shall see an advance from Saloniki before the Spring.

TH

Coast

HE most sensational naval development of the month just past was the act of Germany in carrying submarine warfare to the American side of the Atlantic. The event has created new problems for the American Government and furnished the Chancelleries of belligerents and neutrals alike with new themes of controversy.

In the afternoon of Oct. 7 a German war submarine of the largest type, the U-53, rose out of the sea at Newport, R. I., lay in the harbor there for three hours, dispatched a letter to the German Ambassador at Washington, and entertained visitors on its spotless decks. The commander, Lieut. Captain Hans Rose, with his crew of thirty-three men, stated that the U-53 was seventeen days out of Wilhelmshaven, and that they had food, water, and all supplies for a cruise of three months. The vessel was one of the monster U-50 group that had devastated allied shipping in the Mediterranean a year ago, being 213 feet long and carrying four torpedo tubes besides two deck guns. The U-53 is the first European war submarine to enter a United States port, and the first underseas naval craft to cross the Atlantic without a convoy or a supply ship. The Deutschland, which reached Baltimore on July 9, was a merchant submarine. The American flotilla that went from San Francisco to Honolulu in 1915, and the British flotilla that sailed from the St. Lawrence to Gibraltar a year ago were both under convoy. The U-51 and sister submarines that voyaged from the Weser to the Dardanelles in May and June, 1915, had supply ships. The sinister visitor at Newport, so far as known; operated without any external base of supplies.

After paying formal visits to Rear Admiral Austin M. Knight, Commandant of the Second United States Naval District, and Rear Admiral Albert Gleaves, commanding the American destroyer flotilla at Newport, Captain Rose departed with his vessel at sunset without disclosing his purpose or destination.

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The next day, Sunday, Oct. 8, the world was startled by the news that the U-53 was sinking British and neutral vessels near Nantucket Shoals lightship, a hundred miles from Newport, and leaving the crews and passengers in small boats on the open sea. The underseas craft had

stationed itself in the steamer lane where nearly all incoming and outgoing vessels from New York must pass, and its day's work consisted in sending five ships to the bottom, as follows:

The Strathdene, a British freighter, bound from New York to Bordeaux, torpedoed and sunk. Crew taken aboard the Nantucket Shoals Lightship and later removed to Newport by American torpedo boat destroyers.

The West Point, a British freighter, bound from London to Newport News. Torpedoed after the crew had taken to small boats in obedience to a warning shot from the submarine. Officers and men picked up by a destroyer.

The Stephano, a British passenger liner plying regularly between New York and Halifax, intercepted on the southward trip and sunk by opening the sea valves after the passengers and crew had been set adrift in small boats. These were rescued later by the destroyer Balch.

The Blommersdijk, a Dutch freighter, bound from New York to Rotterdam, sunk south of Nantucket; crew taken aboard a destroyer.

The Christian Knudsen, Norwegian freighter, bound from New York to London; met the same fate as the Blommersdijk.

The German raider also stopped the American steamer Kansan, but allowed it to proceed after being convinced of its American ownership.

The fact that the 216 human victims of this sea raid were saved, apparently without the loss of a single life, was due largely to the promptness with which Admiral Knight dispatched the Newport destroyer flotilla to the rescue. An hour after the first wireless distress signal told what was happening, seventeen naval greyhounds were racing to the scene of operations. The Navy Department also placed its entire wireless department at the disposal of Admiral Knight, and all commercial messages were stopped to give a clear field to distress calls from attacked vessels.

Destruction of the Red Cross liner Stephano was the heaviest blow dealt by the raider, and also the one most productive of legal issues. Setting adrift 164 people forty-two miles from land is regarded by Entente critics as a violation of the German promise to take due precautions against the imperiling of the lives of noncombatants. Captain Clifton Smith's account of the episode may be given here as typical of the German procedure:

We were about three miles east of the Nantucket Lightship and about 42 miles from the mainland when I first saw the submarine. This was at 5:55 P. M. I was on the bridge. The weather was somewhat hazy and it was a little dark, but I could make her out plainly. She was about half a mile away, and was lying next a fairly large ship, which was apparently a supply ship.

She fired a shot across our bows and I slowed down. There were four such shots fired by her altogether, about two minute: apart. None of them hit us. There were two American destroyers near by about this time. I ordered the boats lowered, and prepared to abandon the ship. There 97 passengers and 67 crew, and we used six out of eight boats. While we were doing this the submarine went under the lee of the Stephano. I could not see much of her, but could tell by her lights that she was going along by the side of the ship.

were

When we were in the boats it was dark, but we saw the submarine leave the Stephano and go off about a mile and a half and sink a freighter. We could not make out what vessel it was or whether her crew left, but we saw her sink.

Then the submarine returned to the Stephano. She fired thirty shots into the hull of the vessel, but they apparently did little harm. They did not even put the dynamo out of commission, and the vessel remained fully lighted. Then the submarine drew off and fired one torpedo. The Stephano went down in seven minutes after being hit. We were later picked up by the destroyer. An immediate result of the episode was

ON

the suspension of many sailings, amounting to a temporary blockade of American ports; but as the intruder disappeared as swiftly as it had come, trade soon resumed its normal course. Up to the present writing the American Government has acted on the theory that the U-53 did not violate either international law or the German promises made to the United States regarding the conduct of submarine warfare. There is some resentment manifest, however, in England, as voiced by the press and by members of Parliament. Early in the war the United States Government intimated to Great Britain that there was some annoyance over the patrol by British war vessels just outside the three-mile limit, in the vicinity of our chief ports. After several protests the British method of patrol was modified. The statement that the United States destroyers stood by while the German U-boat was engaged in sinking a passenger liner, and made no protest, is therefore resented in England. It is intimated that Great Britain will eventually present claims for damages inflicted by the U-53 against our Government because she was not detained at Newport.

It was announced just after the U-53 episode that Norway had notified the Allies that no German submarines would be permitted in Norwegian waters without internment, but on Oct. 19 this was officially denied by Norway, the Government maintaining that there will be no prohibition against U-boats, and that merchant U-boats will have the status of merchant ships. Holland, on the other hand, will intern any submarines that enter her waters. The whole matter of the status of submarines in neutral ports is under discussion and in process of formulation.

Is the Deutschland a Merchant Ship? By Rear Admiral Degouy

Of the French Navy

[Translated from La Revue des Deux Mondes for CURRENT HISTORY MAGAZINE]

N July 7 telegrams announced to the whole world that a big submarine, the Deutschland, had just arrived at Norfolk, Va., claiming to be a

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